2020 ACC Over/Unders

By Sam Jessee | September 02 2020 ACC Over/Unders

Sons and Daughters, I'm so stoked to introduce y'all to Lock$ of Saturday. With this series, Robert Irby, Ed Williams, Chris Himes, Brett Smith, as well as myself will be giving you our insight into the world of college football betting.

Each week, we'll be picking the spreads for the Virginia Tech game, two other ACC games, and two non-ACC games with some fun prop bets thrown in there every once in a while. Betting is a really fun and interesting way to look at college football, and we hope to push out some great content with this series.

To kick things off, we'll be giving you our opinions on the total wins for all 15 (14 + Notre Dame) ACC teams. Going forward, we will use the spreads posted on ESPN on Tuesday night for our picks, understanding that the lines will fluctuate slightly throughout the week. However, for the win totals, we will use SportsBettingDime.com, which put its numbers out on August 20.

As the season goes along, we'll keep tally of everyone's picks and see who the winner is at the end of the season. The winner gets a Long Island from Sharkey's courtesy of Billy Ray Mitchell.

Teams will be listed with their win totals out of 11 games (except for UVa who is scheduled to only play 10 and whose win total has been altered for that.)

So let's get to it!

Tenor

Clemson - 10.5

Sam - Under

I just don't see anyone running the table this season, even the mighty Tigers. A trip to South Bend might be a chilly and wet affair for Trevor Lawrence and the boys.

Robert - Over

Come on, it's Clemson. They've won 29 regular-season games in a row. Their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, is the most sought after QB prospect since Andrew Luck and has only lost two games combined in high school and college (70-2). These numbers should tell you that despite the ACC improving this year, Clemson will still breeze through to another undefeated playoff appearance.

Ed - Over

I don’t think Trevor Lawrence is going to lose another game… until he’s a Jaguar

Chris - Under

Going back to 2015, Clemson has had at least one bad game per season against a subpar opponent. In those games, they are 3-2 (sorry UNC fans, but you were Clemson’s bad game last year). Here’s to predicting a fluke loss in a weird season where the Tigers fail to go undefeated.

Brett - Under

TLaw and Co. are one of the best teams in the country, but in "such unprecedented times" there is (are) going to be an unprecedented loss(es) for the Tigers. Players like Lawrence and Etienne are also already thinking about May 2021.

Notre Dame - 8.5

Sam - Over

Only once this season will the Irish be the less talented team on the field and they get that game at home in November. I don't see more than two slip-ups for the Irish.

Robert - Under

This is a tough one, but I'm gonna go with 8 wins for ND. They have one of the tougher ACC slates, having to play Clemson, UNC, Louisville, Pitt, and Florida State. I think Clemson will be a loss, so I think ND going 2-2 against those other teams is a fair evaluation.

Ed - Over

I just can't see the Irish losing more than two games. They are super talented, even if at times it doesn't show.

Chris - Over

I can run behind Notre Dame's O-line and win 9 games in the ACC.

Brett - Over

What Chris said, and I am a 165lbs wet with a sub 6.0 40 yard dash! Now instead of me add Ian Book and Jafar Armstrong. I usually beg for people to not buy into their hype, but this is a good time to buy into it.

Miami - 7.5

Sam - Under

A new QB with a new OC and limited practice time is never a good combo. not to mention Miami is still very weak on the offensive line. I'm not sure they can keep D'Eriq King healthy for all 11 games.

Robert - Under

Spare me the inflated preseason hype. I don't care who their QB is, I will pick Miami to go under every year until they prove they can do something beyond mediocrity.

Ed - Under

Unless D'Eriq King is the second coming of Lamar Jackson, he won't be enough to drag The U to more than 7 wins.

Chris - Over

MIAMI’S BACK! And if Miami's recent on-field performance history tells me anything, there is no way this pick will come back to haunt me. However, D'Eriq King on this squad reminds me of last season’s UVA team headed by Bryce Perkins, which is proof that having a dynamic running QB in a mostly one-dimensional offense, along with a solid defense can win at least 8 games in the ACC.

Brett - Under

Miami has shown no growth in the last couple of years and I expect them to still be flat even with D'Eriq King. They have had several capable QB's over the last two seasons, but that OL.....sheesh.

The u

North Carolina - 7.5

Sam - Under

Sam Howell is an electric QB. It's just too bad he doesn't play defense, where the Tar Heels had three defensive backs with starting experience opt-out of the season. The Tar Heels are one year away in my opinion.

Robert - Over

I'm not buying the UNC hype quite as much as some others, but that offense is special. I think, if he could, Trevor Lawrence would trade his receiving corps for Sam Howell's. I still have no faith in UNC's defense, but with their more favorable schedule, I think 8-3 is a good pick for the Heels.

Ed - Over

The Tar Heels will ride the off-field momentum to an 8 win season. It also helps that they avoid Clemson.

Chris - Over (barely)

A much-hyped UNC enters this season as the media darling trendy pick among football pundits. However, while many see UNC challenging Clemson in the ACC this season, it's more likely they will struggle to get to 8 wins since the game of football involves stopping the other team from scoring points.

Brett - Over

Agree with Robert here that 8-3 is a solid finish for Da Heels. Every ACC team is going to have trouble stopping Howell, Dyami Brown, and Dazz Newsome. With no Clemson on the schedule, I think UNC's only worries are @Miami, ND, and VT.

Unc

Virginia Tech - 7.5

Sam - Over

This is the most complete and talented Hokies team in a while. If players can adapt well to Justin Hamilton's new zone heavy defensive scheme, then you could see a run at the ACC title game. I think 9 wins is the goal for the Hokies, and that's certainly attainable.

Robert - Over

This Hokies team has every ability to play at or near the same level as the 2016 Hokies, and that team went 9-3 in the regular season and was one touchdown away from forcing overtime with the eventual national champs. Both the offense and defense are trending up, winning at least 8 seems pretty feasible. Going 2-2 against Clemson, Louisville, Pitt, and UNC would probably get the job done.

Ed - Over

The Hokies didn't lose much from last year's team. With another year of experience for some key players and some crucial additions from the portal, VT should get to 8 wins.

Chris - Over

One word... depth. Even with the departure of Caleb Farley, the Hokies youth movement is now complete and VT has an enviable two-deep roster with starting experience and significant production returning on both sides of the ball. Let the 2020 Hokie revenge tour begin!

Brett - Over

I think if this was 8.0, my decision would have much more thought. I just don't see 18 returning starters along with Herbert, Hoffman, and Reed as upgrades losing more than four games. The offense is going to be sneaky good in my opinion with a full and ready to go RB and WR room.

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Louisville - 7.0

Sam - Over

The Cardinals are flying high after an impressive rebound last season under Scott Satterfield. A running QB with weapons around him will always win some games, but the defense is still playing at a Group of 5 level. Still, I think 8 wins are still in the Cards for this team. Ha, get it? Cards? Cardinals?

Robert - Over

Let me just say this: I LOVE this Louisville team. Satterfield is one of the best coaches in the country, and a heavily overachieving 2019 team is bringing almost everyone back. 8-3 or 9-2 is a very realistic expectation for the Cardinals.

Ed - Over

Louisville scares me this year and will continue to do so as long as Satterfield is at the helm. Growing pains are to be expected, but he will have the Cards ready to roll.

Chris - Over

Am I missing something? Scott Satterfield is one of the better coaches in the nation who took over a struggling Louisville program that won only 2 games in 2018 and guided them to 8 wins in the 2019 season. This was an easy pick for the over and you heard it here first people… Louisville will finish with a better record than UNC.

Brett - Over

Satterfield was a steal for Louisville and they will be lucky to keep him for the next 3-4 years before he gets a major payday. No Clemson or UNC on the schedule for them either, so I don't see them losing 4 games.

Florida State - 7.0

Sam - Push

Mike Norvell is off to a rough start in Tallahassee. For all the talent on this team, leadership always seems to be lacking. I think the 'Noles will put it together some weekends, but this team is far from consistent.

Robert - Under

Much like Miami, Florida State has become a program that has seemed cursed to mediocrity in recent years. New coach Norvell should help, but uncertainty at QB and some seemingly deep locker room issues make it hard to think FSU wins 7 or more. I think 6-5 would be a successful year for them.

Ed - Push

They still have talent, and a new coach may be all it takes to show signs of life in Tallahassee.

Chris - Under

With a new head coach, a limited offseason to prepare, all of the negative publicity, and no QB, I just don’t see how FSU gets to 7 wins, especially since they have one of the ACC's toughest schedules with games against Miami, Notre Dame, UNC, Louisville, and Clemson. FSU’s margin of error is razor-thin in a season where they are still one year away from being one year away.

Brett - Under

I don't even think the players want to play for Norvell at this point. It's going to be another rough year the Seminoles and with no one chanting in Doak, they won't get any extra help.

Pittsburgh - 7.0

Sam - Push

Kenny Pickett was put on this earth to wear those Pitt throwback colors and win seven games. The defense will be one of the best in the conference, and maybe the country. But I just don't see this team putting it together for the whole season. They'll win some big games then go and get blown out, which is so on-brand for Pitt.

Robert - Over

Alright, let's pump the brakes here. Yes, I am picking Pitt to go over. No, I'm not like David Hale, picking them to finish 2nd in the conference. Their defense is scary good. I don't like Pickett at all, but I think he will make just enough plays to lead the Panthers to an 8-3 mark.

Ed - Push

The defense is good enough to get them to 7 wins, but inconsistency will prevent them from getting over that hump.

Chris - Under

Consistently inconsistent. In a normal year, Pitt usually struggles just to get to 8 wins. With a condensed schedule of only conference games, Pitt will struggle to get close to 7 wins. Sorry, Pat!

Brett - Push

Defense wins championships....in lots of other sports besides football. Stellar defenses are not going to be the key to this weird season. I have their losses slated as Clemson, VT, ND, L'ville, and Miami who are all teams that will be able to break their defense some.

Bestplay pittspecial

Wake Forest - 6.0

Sam - Under

For a team that runs more offensive plays than anyone in the country over the past 3 seasons, the Demon Deacons won't have a lot of offensive weapons this year. DE Carlos Basham, a product of Roanoke VA, will anchor a stout defense, but I don't think Wake has the stuff this season. They'll be back next year.

Robert - Under

Sorry Wake, but a winning record with all the key losses to the offense seems pretty unrealistic. Would I be shocked to see it happen? No. But taking the under here is one of the safer bets in this article.

Ed - Under

This one simple, their best player is a Georgia Bulldog.

Chris – Uuuuuuuunder!

6 wins?!?! I couldn’t write this prediction fast enough. The losses of Jamie Newman and Sage Surratt likely means the Demon Deacons will be one of the worst offensive teams in the ACC, especially given their brutal schedule.

Brett - Under

I didn't understand the Wake hype last year and after losing their best player... it's not happening this year. No idea what Vegas was thinking on this.

Virginia - 5.5

Sam - Under

Much like Wake Forest, the Wahoos lost a lot of what made them click on offense last season. I think this team is about to have a rebuilding year at just the right time.

Robert - Under

Man, it feels good to write this: UNDER. The Hoos will have a tough run defense, but with questionable DB play to go along with replacing Bryce Perkins with Walmart-brand Tim Tebow, it will be tough to win games. Keep in mind, also that they currently only have 10 games scheduled, with their non-conference game against VMI being canceled. With no replacement game in sight, picking the Hoos to go 6-4 or better in the ACC would be insanity.

Ed - Under

The loss of Bryce Perkins and a cupcake game against VMI will prevent UVA from building on the momentum they created a year ago. They have also experienced a recent mini flood into the portal.

Chris - Under

The following is my very statistical win projection analysis for the 2020 Hoo-VA football season… Bryce Perkins > Brennan Armstrong. Under... LOCK!

Brett - Under

I have a lot of respect for Bryce Perkins, but I am sure glad he's gone. UVA fans aren't so sure of Armstrong, so that makes me wary of him leading the team to more than 5 wins. I bet he is pretty ecstatic there won't be a full Lane Stadium his first year as a starter.

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Duke - 5.0

Sam - Under

The clock is ticking on David Cutcliffe's time in Durham. I'm not sure this team has the talent to keep up with a rising ACC. This could be a 2-3 win year for the Blue Devils.

Robert - Under

This is where it starts getting rough. I think there will be a clear division of power in the ACC, with the top teams dominating the lower-tier teams. This will start with Duke. I love Chase Brice, but I think the talent around him is far too sparse to make a splash in the ACC.

Ed - Push

I have no reason to feel this way, other than that a QB that played behind Trevor Lawrence has to have picked up something, right?

Chris - Under

Duke will be bad yet somehow David Cutcliffe will groom Chase Brice into a first-round NFL draft pick. In a year defined by randomness and negativity, it's good to see that some things never change.

Brett - Under

I'm honestly still not sure why Chase Brice chose Duke as his landing spot. Like Chris said, maybe Cutcliffe will be able to make him into a star QB for the draft...but that's about all I got for this Duke team.

Syracuse - 5.0

Sam - Under

Dino Babers has the same clock that David Cutcliffe does, but without the national notoriety and experience to deal with it. This team isn't very good, and I'd be shocked if Babers survives the next two seasons.

Robert - Under

Much like Duke, Syracuse has been consistently at the bottom of the conference in recruiting, and that will take its toll this year. The conference is just too talented for Syracuse to do anything but below .500 in the ACC.

Ed - Under

They stink, other than randomly giving Clemson trouble. Wouldn't be a huge surprise if this is Babers last year at 'Cuse.

Chris - Under

Remember when Dino Babers was one of the hottest coaching prospects following a 10 win season in 2018 where they almost upset Clemson? Yeah, life comes at you fast.

Brett - Under

All those hype locker room videos are coming to a grinding halt and so will the wins for Babers and the orange. Recruiting has been below average especially at skill positions, where Babers needs them.

North Carolina State - 4.0

Sam - Over

The fall of NC State football over the past few years is not talked about enough. I think this season is 'do or die' for the entire coaching staff in Raleigh. They have some talented guys, but many of them have lingering injury issues. Another bad year, and you could see a clean sweep in that program. I think they put some wins together.

Robert - Under

Once again, the fight for second place has begun in the ACC, and NC State will feel the effects of that. Contender after contender will sweep through what I believe is the worst team in the conference.

Ed - Push

If they get to play the whole season, 4 wins seems about right. They have some talent, but not enough to hit the over.

Chris - Push

Did you know that NC State has a football team? It's true! Uniforms and everything. Kidding aside, you have to respect a fanbase whose culture is to wholeheartedly support one of the least relevant football programs.

Brett - Over

Sam's right, I think NC State has been overlooked. They have 5 winning seasons in the last 6 years with some marquee wins. They also have gotten some good recruits! There is life left in the Wolfpack and I think they can get to 5.

Ncsu

Boston College - 4.0

Sam - Under

BC lost games against Kansas, Purdue, and Holy Cross and replaced them with Pitt and Notre Dame. For a team that was going to struggle to reach .500 already, this makes things just a bit tougher. Good thing no one cares about BC football in Boston.

Robert - Over

Call me crazy, but I've got BC winning 5 games. No, they're not a good team, but they appear to be the best of the worst. I've got them beating the likes of Duke, Syracuse, NC State, and GT. ND transfer QB Jurkovec is talented, and I think he will lead the Eagles to a season full of moral victories.

Ed - Push

No AJ Dillon is going to make life difficult, but the addition of a 6'4 227 lb QB will give BC fans a reason to at least tune in.

Chris - Under

In the spirit of the Sons of Saturday, the following is my ‘Eagles Haiku':

"BC is not good,

Nobody in Boston cares,

They will go under."

You’re welcome.

Brett - Under

Bostonians should be more worried about what is going to happen to their beloved Patriots. I don't have this team winning much at all with only locks on the Duke and Syracuse games.

Georgia Tech - 2.5

Sam - Over

Last year doesn't count for Georgia Tech, like a golfer taking a breakfast shot at the first tee box. This team has some talented parts and a good coach at the helm. I think we're about to see a steady climb to competitiveness from the Yellow Jackets over the next 2-3 years.

Robert - Over

2.5 is an insane number here. Yes, GT is bad. But unlike some other teams in the conference, the Yellow Jackets are well-coached and have some solid momentum. They won't do much beyond 3 wins, but going 2-9 would be a colossal disappointment for Geoff Collins.

Ed - Over

Geoff Collins is a good football coach, and another year in the system will get GT to the 3 wins needed for the over.

Chris - Over

The Ramblin' Wreck now has a very capable Geoff Collins behind the wheel. The eventual turnaround of the 'other Tech' is an undersold narrative that will finally get its due attention this season when they end up surprising a few teams.

Brett - Over

I think this team is capable of causing some serious issues in a weird year. They have nothing to lose and had a year to develop players that were not used to throwing the football...

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Sam Jessee

I'm a born and raised Hokie. My first game in Lane Stadium was in September of 1997 when Tech stomped Big East rival Syracuse 31-3. I graduated from Tech with a degree in Finance in 2019 and am currently in Blacksburg getting my MBA in data analytics and statistics. Born and raised in Richmond, VA, where I was a Deep Run Wildcat with fellow Son Grayson Wimbish, NFL Hokie Antone Exum, and Blacksburg legend Jack Click. I'm a contributing writer at TheKeyPlay.com where I cover all things recruiting and approach all my work with the mindset of telling a unique and intriguing story. I look forward to bringing those same vibes to the Sons and Daughters of Hokie Nation.

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