AND SO IT BEGINS FOR THE VIRGINIA TECH WOMEN’S BASKETBALL TEAM

UVA PREVIEW AND THE FINAL STRETCH

The Virginia Tech women’s basketball team begins the toughest part of its schedule sitting at 17-5, with a 7-3 ACC conference record.   While the upcoming scratch of games are important, the slate of 6 games that the Hokies just finished was just as, if not more important.

This is what I wrote in my season preview:

“In reviewing Virginia Tech’s schedule, the Hokies have a key stretch starting January 8 that represents an opportunity for wins. The Virginia Tech women will play seven straight games against teams that placed below it in the ACC standings last year: at Syracuse on Jan. 8, vs. Boston College on Jan. 11, at SMU on Jan. 15, vs. Clemson on Jan. 22, vs. Pitt on Jan 29, and vs. UVA on Feb. 1. These teams were a combined 91-127 (.417) and 35-91 (.278) in the ACC last season.  VT went 4-3 against these opponents, with the average margin in those three losses being 5.67 points, including the 3-pt OT loss to Boston College. If the Hokies are going to improve this season, they have to take advantage of this slate of games and turn those contests into wins.

This is what the Hokies did:

Last year, the Hokies lost two close games amongst that grouping that ultimately hurt its chances for selection to the NCAA tournament. Not only did Tech turn those results around this year, the Hokies largely dominated.

 

NEXT UP:  VIRGINIA

UVA is the next Both teams are 7-3 in the ACC, tied with three other teams for 4th-6th place. Here is a quick comparison of Virginia Tech and UVA as the Cavaliers visit Blacksburg:

KEY UVA WINS AND LOSSES

Key Wins:

• Clemson - W, 73-63 

Losses:

• Duke -  L, 65-58
• NC State - L, 78-76
• Syracuse -  L, 79-60
• Vanderbilt, ranked 15 - L, 91-82
• Nebraska - L, 91-82
• UMBC - L, 61-56

These are UVA's Other Wins in the ACC:

• Boston College - W, 81-55
• SMU - W, 76-52
• FSU - W, 91-87
• Georgia Tech - W, 61-59
• Pitt - W, 84-56
• Wake Forest - W, 107-103 in 3OT

Like Virginia Tech, UVA has feasted on teams that are lower in the conference standings.  Its main losses in the ACC have come against three of the top teams:  Duke, NC State, and Syracuse. Its one win against an ACC-team with a winning conference record was Clemson.  Just as Pitt just pushed the Hokies, Wake Forest forced Virginia to win in three overtimes! 

 

Game vs. NC State: UVA lost by two points to the Wolfpack, 78-76. NC State was 4-of-14 from three whereas UVA hit 12 three pointers on 43% shooting. UVA was in serious foul trouble that game, but the difference in the number of threes made helped keep UVA in the game.

Game vs.  Syracuse:  The tables were turned in UVA’s 19-pt loss to Syracuse. UVA was only 4-of-21 from three whereas Syracuse was 9-of-15. UVA also had 21 turnovers. Kymore Johnson had 5 while two other players had 4 each.

 

UVA-VIRGINIA TECH ROSTERS

Virginia’ Starting Five - From their last game against Wake Forest:

• Kymora Johnson (5’7 junior point guard) - 18.8 points per game (ppg), 6.5 assists per game, 2 steals per game, 3 turnovers per game
• Tabitha Amanze (6’4 senior center) - 10.5 ppg, 6.8 rebounds per game (rpg)
• Sa’Myah Smith (6’2 junior forward) - 9.0 ppg, 7.2 rpg
• Paris Clark (5’ 8 senior guard) - 8.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.2 assists per game
• Jillian Brown (5’11 grad student guard ) - 4.0 ppg, 1.4 assists per game

Other Key Players:

• Caitlin Weimar (6’4 senior forward) - 20 mins per game, 8.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg
• Romi Levy (6’3 senior guard/forward) -  25.4 minutes per game, 8.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 2.3 assists per game
• Gabby White  (5’10 freshman guard) - 16.7 minutes per game, 7.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.5 assists per game
• Adeang Ring (6’5 sophomore forward) - 13.9 minutes per game, 4.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg
• Breona Hurd (6’2 sophomore forward) - 13.4 minutes per game, 3.9 ppg, 2.1 rpg

 

Virginia Tech’s Starting Five - Based on Recent Games:

• Carys Baker (6’2 junior forward) - 14.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.5 assists per game, 44% from the field, 36.7% from three
• Carleigh Wenzel  (6’0 junior guard) - 13.5 ppg, 3.6 assists per game, 1.1 steals per game, 3.4 rpg, 34.6% from the field, 34.1% from three
• Kilah Freelon (6’1 senior forward) - 10.0 ppg, 8.5 ppg, 1.5 blocks per game, 54.3% from the field
• Mackenzie Nelson (5’8 sophomore guard) - 7.6 ppg, 5.7 assists per game, 1.4 steals per game, 3.1 rpg, 38% from the field
• Leila Wells (5’9 sophomore guard) - 3.6 ppg, 1.2 assists per game, 2.0 rpg

Other Key Players:

• Samyha Suffren (5’8 junior guard) - 9.2 ppg, 1.5 assists per game, 1.9 steals per game, 3.1 rpg, 45.9% from the field
• Mel Daley (5’11 senior guard) - 9.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 45.9% from the field
• Kayl Peterson (6’0 sophomore forward) - 2.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg
• Aniya Trent (6’3 freshmen forward) - 2.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg
• Amani Jenkins (6’3 freshmen forward) - 1.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg
• Sophie Swanson (5’10 junior guard) - 2.4 ppg

 

BREAKING DOWN UVA

This year’s version of UVA is a different team than the one that Virginia Tech split with last season. Gone are six of the 10 players that saw time in those two matchups. The Cavaliers brought in several experienced transfers that have improved the program.

Kymora Johnson is still the leader of the Cavaliers. She is averaging 18.8 points per game , shooting 43.7% and 37.9% from three. She leads the ACC in average assists per game with 6.5 per game and is second to Tech’s Mackenzie Nelson with a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio.

She had 26 points in each of the last two games against NC State and Wake Forest. However, Johnson was not efficient in those games.  Against NC State, she shot 9 of 23 (39.1%) and 6 of 14 (38%) from three. She only got to the free throw line twice. In addition, she dished out 9 assists but had 3 turnovers.  Against Wake Forest, Johnson shot 7-for-23 (30%) and 5-for-13 (38%) from three. She shot 8 free throws but had 5 turnovers.

It will be interesting to see which Tech defender guards her. Mackenzie Nelson, Carleigh Wenzel, Samyha Suffren, Leila Wells, and Mel Daley will all likely get turns.  In those last two games, 58.6% of Johnson’s shots came from beyond the arc, so the Hokies will have to challenge her at the three point line while not allowing her to get to the rim.

In those two games, Johnson took between 1/4 to 1/3 (25-29%) of the team’s shots. While 4-5 other players took at least 10 shots in each of those games, Johnson dominated the offense. 

UVA does have a quality supporting cast, especially on the interior where Virginia Tech will face a strong challenge.

Tabitha Amanze is a 6 '4 senior center transfer from Princeton who is averaging 10.5 points per game on 50% shooting. She also grabs 6.8 rebounds per game, including nearly 3 offensive rebounds. Amanze has more free throw attempts than Johnson 64 to 63, so she draws attention and contact around the basket. She has actually improved her free throw percentage from 50% in past seasons to 73% this season.

LSU transfer Sa’Myah Smith, a 6’2 junior forward, is averaging 9.0 ppg (50% shooting) and 7.2 rpg, including 2.3 offensive rebounds per game. Smith will also shoot from three, sporting a 33% clip on 19 attempts. She is active on the boards and will put pressure on Tech’s forward, though she does not get to the line that much.

UVA can bring more size off the bench in Caitlin Weimar, Adeang Ring (transfer from UCF), Romi Levy (former Auburn and USF transfers), and Breon Hurd.  Caitlin Weimar, a 6’4 graduate transfer from Boston University, is a key player either as a starter or off the bench. Weimar averages 8.3 points per game on 63% shooting and 6.1 rebounds, including 2.8 offensive rebounds a game.  Breona Hurd, one of the few returning players, had good showing in both UVA-Tech games last season.

The Cavaliers will be a force inside. They lead the country in blocks with 7.8 per game  [Amanze has 1.6, Weimar has 1.4, RIng has 0.9, Hurd has 0.9, Smith has 0.8, Clark has 0.7, White has 0.7). UVA is also a dominant rebounding team:  UVA is no. 2 in the ACC at 44.5 rebounds a game and no. 2 with 15.5 offensive rebounds per game.  Its average rebounding margin of 12.5 is no. 1 in the ACC, no. 4 among D-1 schools - compared to Virginia Tech’s 8th place ACC mark of 5.7.

Manning the perimeter rotation are Parris Clark, Jillian Brown, and Gabby White. Parris Clark is shooting 35.9% from three (23-for-64) whereas Jillian Brown, the former Northwestern transfer,  is shooting 33.9 percent from three (19-of-56). Whereas Brown can score from inside the arc, she is primarily a three pointer shooter as 65% of her shot attempts come from three point land. 

 

THOUGHTS ON THE GAME

This is a winnable game for the Hokies, but it will be tough. Tech’s interior players Kilah Freelon, Carys Baker, Kayl Peterson, Aniya Trent, and Amani Jenkins will all have to be big and physical inside while staying out of foul trouble.  They will have to limit UVA’s second-chance opportunities.  I think Amani Jenkins will likely see more time on Sunday depending on the foul situation among Tech’s bigs. 

Tech’s guards will need to find a balance between challenging UVA’s bigs on drives to draw fouls and pulling up for mid-range jumpers. Since UVA’s Johnson, Clark, and Brown are all capable of hitting the three, the Hokies guards will have to find a balance between helping defensively, including doubling down in the post, without leaving shooters open on the perimeter. Ultimately, Tech’s guards will have to make life difficult for Kymora Johnson, keeping her out of the lane and limiting her looks from three. The Hokies have been doing a great job helping on defense, hedging on screens and recovering back inside, and rotating to prevent easy looks for opponents. They will have to bring that same intensity and effort to the game tomorrow.

During Tech’s recent 6-game winning streak, it is shooting 42% from three, which is 4% higher than its season average.  Its offensive rebounding average is on par with UVA’s. Tech is also sharing the ball well, averaging 16.8 assists per game, and limiting turnovers to 14.0 per game. The Hokies need to continue to shoot well from outside.  The guards need to continue to limit turnovers and be efficient. Carleigh Wenzel and Carys Baker will get opportunities from three and need to hit them with confidence. Mackenzie Nelson and Samyha Suffren will get lanes to drive but the middle could be crowded.  Defensively, they, Leila Wells and Mel Daley have the hands and length to disrupt the Cavalier passing game.  One could argue that UVA has more overall depth than Virginia Tech, but with Sufften’s improved mid-ranging shooting and Daley re-finding her footing, the Hokies have the weapons to attack the UVA defense.  Much will be made of Tech’s third quarter issues in last year’s first game loss to UVA; however, it was actually in the second quarter where Tech lost opportunities to build on its early lead by missing some easier chances at the basket. 

This is a Quadrant 2 game that will influence Tech’s NET ranking. A win against the Cavaliers would extend Tech’s winning streak to seven and, more importantly, continue to build its resume for March Madness.  A win would also give the Hokies more momentum going into the tough final stretch of ACC games, starting with Notre Dame next week.

 

AFTER UVA

What is on tap for Virginia Tech after the UVA game this Sunday? February is going to be a difficult stretch that will determine whether or not the Hokies are a tournament team. The Hokies did not participate in March Madness in 2024-25 on the basis of an 18-11, 9-9 record and first round loss in the ACC tournament.  With 17 wins on its resume right now (prior to playing UVA this Sunday), Tech is in a good position. These are the seven remaining games on Tech’s schedule after the UVA contest:

@ Notre Dame  - Thursday, 2/5/26 

Notre Dame is 5-5 in the ACC and 13-8 overall. While Notre Dame experienced a number of players departing either from the transfer portal or to graduation, it is still led by the leading candidate for ACC player of the year Hanna Hidalgo.  Four of its losses were to ranked teams Michigan, Ole Miss, Louisville, and UConn, Add in 14-pt loss to Duke, and Notre Dame’s losses are to a challenging gauntlet. At the same time, Notre Dame has been trending down with 4 losses in its last 5 games, including two straight defeats to Clemson and California. Even though the Hokies have played well on the road this season, playing in South Bend against Hidalgo will be tough.

NC State - Sunday, 2/8/26

NC State is 8-2 in the ACC, 15-6 overall, and 3rd place in the conference. While it had an inexplicable loss to Rhode Island earlier in the year as well as a loss to Clemson, NC State’s other losses were to ranked teams, USC, TCU, and Oklahoma.  This will be a touch matchup for the Hokies.

@ Stanford - Thursday, 2/12/26

Last season, Stanford defeated Virginia Tech by one point in overtime…in a game in which Cary Baker did not take a single three point shot.  The Stanford defense did not cause the lack of outside shooting by Baker. She emphasized trying to score inside. This can’t happen against Stanford this year. Led by star freshmen, Stanford is 4-5 in the ACC and 15-7 overall.  While they own wins over UNC and a ranked Washington team, the Cardinals' main losses in the ACC have been NC State, Duke,  Louisville, and Syracuse. If Virginia Tech is going to take the next developmental step, this is the type of game that the Hokies have to win.

@ California - Sunday, 2/15/26

California is 4-5 in the ACC and 13-9 overall.  The Bears are on a three-game win streak having defeated Boston College, Stanford, and Notre Dame to move into the middle tier set of teams in the ACC.  Prior to this streak, it had losses against USC, UNC, NC State, Duke, and Stanford. It has a favorable slate of games before playing Tech, but Cal will have played Louisville, Georgia Tech, and UVA leading into that game. This will be a winnable game for the Hokies.

North Carolina  - Thursday, 2/19/26

UNC is currently 6-3 in the ACC and 17-5 overall. Its three conference losses were to Notre Dame, Stanford, and Louisville. The Tarheels own wins over Boston College, California, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse. UNC has a challenging remaining schedule in which it faces NC State this Monday, 2/2, plays UVA, and then has 20th-ranked Duke twice.  The Hokies came close to defeating UNC last year; however, the Tarheels feel vulnerable this season. This matchup will be a touch, but winnable, game for Virginia Tech.

Georgia Tech - Sunday, 2/22/26

Georgia Tech is 4-6 in the ACC and 9-13 overall. Georgia Tech is an inconsistent team. It owns wins against Notre Dame and Clemson, and five of its ACC losses were to NC State, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, and UVA. However, the Yellow Jackets have also lost to Wake Forest. By the time the two Techs play each other, the Yellow Jackets will also have played Boston College, California, Stanford, Clemson again, and Pitt. Georgia Tech could be a middle-of-the pack team, making this an interesting game. Given the remaining games on Virginia Tech’s schedule, the Hokies need to win this game to enhance its chances to make the NCAA tournament.

@ Virginia - Sunday, 3/1/26

It is imperative that the Hokies at least split this season against UVA.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

While both UNC and Notre Dame appear vulnerable, I think the Notre Dame,  UNC and NC State games are going to be hard. The fact that North Carolina comes to Blacksburg will help. If Tech can take at least one game from these three matchups, that will be a success.

Traveling to the West Coast for the two games against Stanford and California has its own challenges. At the beginning of the season, I thought Tech could and would beat both teams, but watch for a split. 

Tech should and needs to win the final two games against Georgia Tech and UVA, no matter the outcome of the game this Sunday. Virginia Tech is capable of going at least 4-4 of the final 8 games to finish with at least 20 wins and double digit ACC wins, and go dancing in March.