Virginia Tech is 5-5 with Two Games Left - Is the Season Lost?

After Virginia Tech dropped their most recent game to Clemson, the fan base is upset. Even a week later, during  the bye week, some are still irate. With 20 of 22 starters returning from a team that smoked lesser opponents in the back half of last year, this was supposed to be a breakout season for head coach Brent Pry and his Hokie football team. 

However, ten games into the season, the Hokies sit at 5-5 with numerous heart-attack inducing losses, and the latest was an embarrassing offensive performance at home. 

There are only two games remaining on the schedule - against opponents who are playing with a lot of visible spirit and passion - and the thought of a 5-7 campaign is real. That would be a devastating outcome for sure, but it is a reality for which many in Hokie Nation are preparing. 

Even if Tech can win both of those games, though, is 7-5 good enough for the fan base?  It certainly would be improvement over last season’s 6-6 mark, but with so much expectation - and NIL investment - how many Hokie fans would walk away from 2024 feeling satisfied?

Measuring Improvement

Prior to the Clemson game, Virginia Tech’s 5-4 record was disappointing for sure, but there were signs of improvement. All four of the losses were by one score to teams that were bowl eligible after week ten (plus Rutgers, who earned their sixth win this weekend). 

Last season, Tech’s losses after September were all to teams with better records, and they weren’t really close games.  Since the losses this year were all by seven points or less (prior to Clemson), isn’t that progress in year three of a complete rebuild?

Even after falling to Clemson, Tech is ranked 33rd in the nation in ESPN’s Power Football Index. Despite the losses, the Hokies are still considered a competitive team, right?

Individuals have improved too. Running back Bhayshul Tuten amassed 951 yards rushing before his injury in game eight, 88 more than he had throughout 13 games last year. And defensive end Antwaun Powell-Ryland tallied 9.5 sacks all of last season, but he already has 13 in 2024.

Also, under Pry, recruiting has gained momentum, especially within the footprint. That was a point of contention between the previous staff and this fan base. Further, the quality of transfers is improving as he has been landing more power conference players recently. These are definitely aspects of this staff that have made the roster much better than it was when Pry arrived. 

Isn’t this worth celebrating?

Optics Matter

Unfortunately, Hokie Nation is not buying in to the idea that this team is improved.  After September, Virginia Tech was 2-3, exactly where they were after the first five game of both 2022 and 2023.  Now, in mid-November, Tech is 5-5, which is the same record they had a year ago after ten games. 

How Virginia Tech has been losing means just as much to the fans as the actual outcome.  There have been too many coulda-woulda-shoulda moments, and several losses came against mid-level teams, not elite teams (except perhaps Miami, but Tech blew a late lead in that one too.)

So even though the data suggests that Virginia Tech remains competitive, which they are, there is discontent in the fan base.  Tech’s schedule strength is ranked in the top 40 nationally, but that rank would drop if the Hokies could have hel on to a few more victories.  

Ultimately, the disappointment is in how the Hokies are losing, and of course, the sheer amount of losses (which have unfortunately added up over the last decade or so). 

Danny Neckel
@DNeckel19

Football records in the past 7 seasons: UVA: 39-41 (.488) VT: 40-44 (.476)

Inconsistency and Regression

While fans are thrilled with the output of Tuten and APR, to name a few, expectations were for the Tech offense to be explosive, and that just has not happened.  There have been some high scoring outputs, but there have also been stinkers by the offense, such as the first half at Vanderbilt, three quarters against Rutgers, the second half vs. Georgia Tech, and now the entire game against Clemson.  The inconsistency has been maddening to the fans. 

Clemson was particularly head-scratching.   Against a Tiger defense who was missing starters up front and was giving up a lot of yards per carry on the ground, the Tech offense only rushed 21 times for 40 yards.

Even worse, Virginia Tech quarterbacks only handed the ball to a running back four times in this game. You read that right – four carries by Tuten.  Yes he was hurt, but backup Jeremiah Coney played thirty snaps yet did not touch the ball once.  How does that happen?  Against a team who wasn't exactly a stalwart at stopping the run?

Defensively, Tech has played well at times, but this unit has not been able to get key fourth quarter stops, which has unfortunately led to four losses in one-score games.  The inconsistency of both the offensive and defensive units is hard to fathom when there are so many returning players and so much veteran presence on the roster.

The Virginian-Pilot
@virginianpilot

Virginia Tech has not defeated an ACC opponent that finished the season with a winning conference record since N.C. State in the 2020 opener, writes columnist David Teel: trib.al/TUOdqmp

And while players like Tuten and APR are playing great, other key starters are not. Quarterback Kyron Drones looks like he has regressed.  Drones’ percentages are similar to last season, but his touchdown to interception ratio is much worse - 10/6 in 2024 compared to 17/3 in 2023. 

Drones just does not seem as confident lately.  A nearly ten-point drop in his quarterback rating and almost 500 fewer rushing yards suggest he is not the same guy who was leading Tech down the stretch last year. Why not? 

The wide receiving corps is another unit that has widely underperformed. Stephen Gosnell is having a solid campaign, but overall, this group’s statistics are on pace to underperform from last season, and they have a bad case of the dropsies this year.  This is certainly not what was expected out of a "stacked" wide receiver room.

Peter DiBiasi
@DibiasiPeter

Virginia Tech's Offense in 2024 is going to be electric Kyron Drones looks like a star at QB Bhayshul Tuten is a legit NFL-caliber RB The WR Core Is Stacked⬇️ -Ali Jennings -Jaylin Lane -Da'Quan Felton -Ayden Greene -Stephen Gosnell #VT | #Hokies

What is the Answer?

If you have been on social media this week, you know that it has been a rather toxic environment among the Hokie faithful.  There has been a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking. There has also been a lot of soapboxing, telling the world what the school should do in the offseason.  After a 5-5 start, are we surprised by this?

I wish I knew the answer to why this year’s team is underperforming. There is inconsistency. There have been poor starts each September. The team can’t win close games.  Why?

“This is a business.  These guys are paid to win football games.  They are paid very handsomely to win football games.  And if they are not going to do that, then, you know, we should find someone else who is going to be able to put us in a better position to do that.”

Pat Finn in a recent Sons of Saturday podcast

Are staff changes needed? A head coaching change? An administrator change?  Judging by the reactions on social media, something has to give to appease this fanbase right now, and unfortunately I do not think that winning the final two games will change a lot of opinions. 

I will say this though: the success of other new coaches like Curt Cignetti at Indiana, Manny Diaz at Duke, and Mike Elko at Texas A&M makes it even tougher for Hokie fans to be patient and trust the process.

However, hiring a new coach or a new staff does not guarantee immediate results – or even progress for that matter.  For every one of those success stories above, we have to consider the struggles, like Brent Venables at Oklahoma, Lincoln Riley at USC, Sherrone Moore at Michigan, or Billy Napier at Florida. 

Coaching hires are a crapshoot.  There is no guarantee that the next guy will be the right guy nor that he will win right away.  Remember when everyone thought Justin Fuente was a great hire for Virginia Tech?

The Hokies had been blessed with a highly successful staff for several decades, which is not the norm.  However, the fan base wants badly to hurry back to those days of football prosperity.  Can you blame them?

"This is a program that has been starved of success for entirely too long and people are getting a little bit impatient"

Chris Coleman in a recent Techsideline podcast

Final Thoughts

So is the 2024 season lost? Absolutely not.  Have the fans lost faith?  Maybe.

With two games to go, Pry and company have an opportunity to finish with seven wins and earn a trip to a half-decent bowl game.  Although that is less than the preseason expectations, it is still an improvement on last year.

However, losing to Duke or even – gasp – Virginia would be another dagger to the heart of Hokie Nation. The support of this staff would evaporate, and that is a step backwards in this new age of college sports where fans are increasingly asked to donate to the athletic funds, contribute to NIL, spend more on tickets and parking, and pay more at hotels. So yeah, finishing 6-6 would be a major disappointment.

And I don’t even want to speculate on the fan reactions if Tech loses out.  It won’t be pretty, that’s for sure. 

I like Brent Pry and I want to see him be successful. He has a great personality and he has done all the things off the field that Hokie Nation missed under the previous staff. 

Ultimately, though, wins are what matter most.  College football is a business, and if Pry’s Hokies cannot get it done in the final two games, I suspect that “hard conversations” will have to happen.

Those conversations are for later, though.  Right now I’m hoping the team is focused on Duke and will play spirited ball for four quarters.  I hope we can salvage what is left of this season.  Winning the final two games will not be a cure-all, but it will take away at least some of the sting of disappointment and unmet expectation.

Go Hokies!