Week 2 Hot Takes – Around Blacksburg, the ACC, and the Nation

After two weeks of college football, there have been a lot of surprises on the field and some movement in the polls.  This is mostly because of the preseason hype and a lot of rankings based on bias and expectation.  That is why we play the games.

Several “playoff-caliber” teams have stumbled out of the gate.  A few teams have come out of “nowhere” to win as underdogs.  There is still a lot of ball left to play, but after two weeks of actual games, some of the smoke is beginning to clear. 

I realize this is probably (interpreted: definitely) premature and these takes aren’t necessarily widely held, but here are a few conclusions that can be drawn – and opinions postulated – on where Virginia Tech, the ACC, and a few teams in the Midwest are headed by year’s end.

Virginia Tech’s Offense Will Come Around – Sooner Rather than Later – And the Hokies Will Finish With 8 Wins

On the surface, this does not seem like a hot take.  Last year, the Hokies turned a corner after the fourth game and their offense took off. However, despite returning everyone on offense – both players and coaching staff – the team has struggled mightily in the first half of each of their two games.

Even though Virginia Tech won its second game comfortably, their offense sputtered early in both games.  In the opener, the Hokies dug a deep hole with first half woes that ultimately cost them the game at Vanderbilt and derailed their hype-train. 

And that early game futility has been brutal. Virginia Tech has yet to score an offensive touchdown in the first half, and they have only mustered three first half points in each of their two games so far.  Against Marshall, the Hokies were only one for nine in third-down conversions before halftime. 

The turnaround against the Thundering Herd came in the second half when the offense leaned on running back Bhayshul Tuten and finally established the run.  Tech ran the ball on 11 of 12 plays on their first possession of the third quarter, which ended with a Tuten touchdown (he now has ten touchdowns in his last six games). 

On Tech’s next two drives, they ran the ball eight out of eleven plays and scored two more touchdowns to put the game away. The Hokies established a run-first identity in the second half and found success. 

Moving forward, Virginia Tech should try to establish the run earlier in games.  Quarterback Kyron Drones has not been very successful with the plethora of screen passes and straight drop backs, but the Hokies have rallied behind Tuten (5.0 yards per carry) and Malachi Thomas (5.6 yards per carry), who have combined for 210 yards in two games.  Look for Tech to try to get the running backs going early, then use play action to utilize their weapons in the receiving corps.

Virginia Tech has some challenging games ahead, but only two of them are against ranked teams (three if we count Boston College, but scroll down to see why I do not include them here).  The Hokies still have a chance to have a good season – but they will have to establish an offensive identity that is run-first.  If they do that, I think the offense will start to look a little more like the unit that rolled through the unranked teams on the back half of last year’s schedule and the wins should pile up. 

This also does not appear to be such a hot take, as Virginia Tech kicker John Love has already been named to the Lou Groza preseason watch list for 2024.  However, as Hokie Nation knows all too well (and as will be a recurring theme in this article), there can be a big difference between expectation and outcome in college football.

The sophomore kicker for Tech has started the year perfectly, hitting on all seven of his extra points and all three of his field goals (two of which were over 40 yards).  Last season, Love was 22 of 24 on his field goals, connecting on six of seven from over 40.  He was also perfect on PATs, putting all 44 of them through the uprights.

Love’s 89.7 career field goal percentage is currently second on Virginia Tech’s all-time list, but he is first of all players who have kicked for more than one season.

That consistency could be a difference maker in close games.  With the Hokies’ schedule becoming more difficult soon, a kicker like Love could find himself in a position to make a game-winning field goal.  Or the team could need him to connect on multiple field goals if they cannot find the end zone, which could be the margin of victory in a low scoring game.

Either way, Love has the accuracy and distance to be a very reliable kicker who could very well be hoisted off the field on his teammates’ shoulders one day.  As a fan, I never want to see Virginia Tech be in that position (because I would rather win the game comfortably), but if they were, I am happy that John Love is the Hokies’ kicker.

And I would be thrilled for him – and not surprised – if he is at the Lou Groza Awards Banquet in West Palm Beach, Florida on December 9th.

Kicker John Love will be a Lou Groza Award Finalist

Lou Groza Award
@LouGrozaAward

🏈 @HokiesFB's John Love proved he is a rising star in college football after leading all first-year players in field goals made. Love nailed 22 of 24 field goals, finishing with an impressive 91.7% accuracy. Catch the full preseason watch list here: hubs.ly/Q02N4WFw0

Miami and Clemson will Square off in Charlotte for the ACC Title

Predicting Miami to make it to the ACC championship is not a hot take, I know that.  But saying that they will face Clemson is.

Two weeks ago, the world wrote off Clemson after they lost handily to Georgia in the opener.  That was a gross overreaction.  Georgia is practically an NFL team, and most schools in the nation will lose convincingly to them.  Just look at their 42-2 record over the past three seasons.  The only team to beat them in that time was Alabama, another program full of NFL talent.

Yes, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney does not use the transfer portal, and yes, there is a lot of criticism (rightfully so?) for that decision.  But he and his Tigers are being judged because of that and because of their recent fall from grace – which isn’t much of a fall because most fan bases I know would LOVE to win 9 or 10 games each year!

So when Clemson lost by 31 to Georgia, it was easy for the media to declare them overrated.  However, the Tigers absolutely boat-raced Appalachian State last weekend, 66-20, and I know this is inconceivable, but that score could have been much worse.  Clemson scored 35 first quarter points en route to a 56-13 halftime lead over a Mountaineers team that could be in play for the non-Power conference automatic playoff bid.  Then they took their foot off the gas pedal.

The Tigers have good players.  They returned a lot of talent to a roster that includes highly rated recruits.  Dabo may not use the transfer portal, but the guy recruits at a high level!  And Clemson has an ACC schedule that all of a sudden does not look too daunting, as North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech do not appear to be the teams that everyone though they would be. 

If Clemson can beat Louisville at home, they should have a clear path to Charlotte.  Even if they lose to the Cardinals, they should be favored in all of their remaining games and can play their way into the ACC title game.

Boston College is Not a Top-25 Team – Not Now, Not Any Time This Fall

Again, I’m not so sure this is a “hot” take. It might just be an opinion that Boston College is overrated, or it is an indictment on Florida State.  Or both.

Either way, Boston College is being ranked based off one road victory that by November will not be so impressive.  The Eagles went down to Tallahassee and dominated the line of scrimmage over a very pedestrian Florida State team, which landed them a #24 ranking in this week’s AP poll.

BC's other win was a 56-0 home thrashing of Duquesne. 

It is incredible that pollsters will give that much credit to a team for beating Florida State.  This is an FSU unit that had a lot of turnover from last year’s dominant team, and the guy they brought in to lead their offense – DJ Uiagalelei – had already failed previously as an ACC quarterback.  So why all the love for BC this week?

Remember, Georgia Tech went down to the wire with Florida State in week zero, kicking a game-winning field goal as time expired. For that feat (added to a 35-12 win over Georgia State), the Yellow Jackets landed in the AP rankings at #23 prior to last weekend.  Then they promptly lost at Syracuse to fall out of the polls. 

Which makes me ask why Syracuse isn’t ranked this week?  They are undefeated and beat the team who beat Florida State?  But the media seems to discount this recent win because the other team’s name is Georgia Tech, not Florida State.  But I digress, this hot take is about Boston College, who is being ranked because of one win.

I mean no disrespect to Bill O’Brien.  He is a good coach and he will field a sound and competitive team this year, possibly building the program into a second-tier ACC team. But they should not be ranked just because they beat FSU. 

The schedule should take care of this when Boston College travels to Missouri this weekend, and the cosmos – and the polls – will return to normal. 

Northern Illinois’ Win Over Notre Dame Knocked the Irish Out of the Playoff

This sounds like a classic overreaction – but it’s a hot take, so by definition it is a quickly produced, strongly worded, and often deliberately provocative or sensational opinion or reaction.

Guilty as charged.

But I believe it will be true.  And here’s why:

Although their overall strength of schedule isn’t too great, the Irish still have to face #11 Southern Cal (away) and #19 Louisville (home).  Georgia Tech is tough in the trenches with a gritty quarterback, so the Yellow Jackets could also pose a threat.

Let’s say Notre Dame only loses one of those games. In that case, a 10-2 Irish team makes the playoff, no?  Don’t they always get the preferential nod because of the expected draw and their national appeal? 

Of course, the playoff seeds will depend on the records of other top teams, but if the season plays out like last year, then all those 10-2 SEC and Big Ten teams will have stronger schedules and “better” losses than Notre Dame.  This could even hold true with some 9-3 teams.

And if the Irish are to lose two more games, then you can officially stick the fork in them.  I’m not saying they will go 9-3, but after losing at home to Northern Illinois, I have my doubts. 

Sure, Notre Dame looked good in their opening win at Texas A&M, but what if the Aggies aren’t that good this year?  Maybe they were the beneficiary of the Mike Elko hype and expectation that he would resurrect that program in one year like he did at Duke?

That sounds a little familiar – too much hype and expectations.

Regardless, Notre Dame has a very bad loss on their resume and now their backs are against the wall.  They cannot afford to lose more than one more game.  I’m not so sure that happens.

See ya in the Gator Bowl, Rudy.

NIU Athletics
@NIUAthletics

A MONUMENTAL WIN FOR THE HUSKIES NIU beats No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14 marking the highest-ranked opponent beaten in program history #GoHuskies | #TheHardWay

Michigan Will Be Lucky to Win 8 Games This Year

The Michigan Wolverines are another team who came into the year with hype and expectation – mainly because of their success from last season.  The reigning national champions had a historical season (cheating allegations notwithstanding), but the current roster is a shell of that undefeated title team.

Despite losing a dynamic quarterback, playmakers on both sides of the ball, and a touchdown machine at running back, Michigan was granted a preseason top ten ranking.   The Wolverines also had to replace their entire offensive line.  And perhaps their greatest loss was their head coach – I think many are not giving Jim Harbaugh enough credit for the winning program he built in Ann Arbor (or maybe the credit should go to Connor Stalions?).

I have been selling stock in Michigan since late summer, when I included the Maize and Blue on my list of over overhyped teams.  Last week, Texas came into the Big House, routed the Wolverines, and strengthened my argument that they are not a top-25 team.

There are a few more huge challenges on Michigan’s schedule.  They host Southern Cal, and they also travel to Oregon and to Ohio State, all teams ranked in the top eleven.  Michigan could easily lose all three of those. 

Or they could suffer a let-down against one of their other conference foes – it is not easy to run the table in college football, so expecting Michigan to win out otherwise in the Big Ten is being highly hopeful.

Eight wins seems to be the ceiling.  Maybe this is karma?

Final Thoughts

We know this is all speculation – I admit that, and I also admit that anything can happen in college football.

However, there sometimes are signs of things to come, and I firmly believe in what I wrote above.  I would especially like to see the Hokies re-establish their identity, get back on track, and make a push toward eight wins – or more – and maybe be in contention for a berth in the ACC championship game.

If not, then at least I hope there is improvement and consistency. 

The schedule becomes more difficult after Old Dominion.  But the Monarchs should not be overlooked – how can we look past them having never won at their stadium?  Here’s hoping the Hokies take care of business in Norfolk, then take it one week at a time as they face Power-4 schools the rest of the way.

Everything is still in front of the team.  All their goals are still on the table.  Let’s reach them, one game at a time.

Go Hokies!