2024 College Football Program Power Rankings

Last summer, I put together a model to rank college football programs in a way that I hadn't seen done before. I wanted to use a combination of advanced stats, returning production, recruiting, strength of schedule, home field advantage...I wanted all of it included. That's a daunting task, but luckily I'm enough of a college football nerd to revel in the challenge.

If you'd like more information on how and why I came up with these rankings, I encourage you to read the first half of my article from last season: Power Ranking the Virginia Tech Program 

One of the biggest changes I've made are weighting all variables in a way that the absolute highest score a team could have is 100. That would be a team with an adjusted EPA from the previous season of 1.200 (for reference, undefeated Michigan had an average margin of victory of 25.5 and finished with just an adjusted EPA of 1.05), the most returning production, the best recruiting over the past two cycles, the highest market expectations, and the easiest schedule. Pretty unlikely to ever happen. This also helps standardize any YoY comparisons. 

The other would be including the S&P+ returning production metric as well as Action Network's TARP. This gives me more robust data to calculate statistical production and total snaps.

The maximum scores for each category are:

• Returning Production: 25
• Recruiting: 15
• Prior Year Adjusted EPA: 30
• Market Expectations: 40
• Strength of Schedule: -10 (easiest schedule is a -10, hardest is a -20)

TL;DR

The purpose of these rankings is NOT to pick teams head to head. It is a predictive model for how well a team can perform on a national level. I've dubbed this "capacity for success". Simply put:

Power Rating = adj. previous season performance + returning and new production

That power rating is then adjusted for strength of schedule and Vegas expectations to get your final rating. What this does is creates a measure for what are the three pillars of modern college football success: recruiting, retention, on-field performance.

So how well did this model predict the 2023 season? Here's how the top 20 ranked programs finished the season:

Of the top 20:

• 9 went to the NY6/CFP
• All 4 CFP teams were in the top 15
• 9 played for a conference title game including 8 of 10 possible Power 5 contestants
• 12 won double digit games

That's a pretty solid first season for the model. Of the five teams in the top 20 that "underperformed":

• Duke and Utah: Injury to starting QB
• Clemson: Won their last 5 games, all losses by 1 possession
• Illinois and TCU: bad football teams

But it's just as important to understand how the lower ranked teams performed. Here are the bottom 10 ranked Power conference teams and their season results, ranked lower to higher:

Of the bottom 10 Power conference teams:

• 6 missed bowl games
• 5 finished with 3 or less wins
• combined record of 21-63 (0.250) vs teams at or above .500 at the end of the regular season

Some teams did carve out nice seasons, however. Of the four that did:

• West Virginia was 3-1 in one score games, went 3-3 vs .500+ teams, and were outscored by the two top 20 preseason teams they played (Penn State #10 and Oklahoma #20) by a combined 97-35 
• Georgia Tech was 2-1 in one score games, went 4-5 vs .500+ teams, and lost to Bowling Green 
• Northwestern went 6-2 in one score games (including a 23-20 win vs FCS Howard), went 4-4 vs .500+ teams, and lost 41-13 to the only top 20 preseaon team they played (#10 Penn State)
• Rutgers went 2-0 in one score games, went 0-6 vs the top six preseason teams they faced by a combined score of 181-66

These four teams had really solid seasons for where they were a year ago today. But it's also worth pointing out that none of these teams were able to go above .500 vs winning teams and went a combined 13-4 in one score games. Credit to them, but their seasons could have gone very differently. This is something important to remember when predicting a bottom tier preseason team to do well; they will have to win a lot of close games and capitalize on their weaker opponents to have a shot at a bowl game. 

So the model works! But it can be better. I won't bore you with the intricacies, but I have done some tinkering with weights to prioritize returning production and transfers, as well as a strength of schedule metric that's based on game location (we'll get to home field advantage later) and the non-adjusted projection score. I think it has much better outputs than the ESPN FPI measurement I used last season. 

It should really be no surprise that the Oregon Ducks have taken the top spot in this year's rankings. The Ducks are one of the more talented teams in the country, with the 9th best recruiting score and the 21st most returning production. Last season, they finished with the second highest adjusted EPA (0.909), only behind national champs, Michigan. Portal additions all over the field including QB Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma and stud DB Jabbar Muhammed from Washington make the 2024-25 Ducks one of the most formidable teams in the country. The schedule sets up well, too, with their showdown vs Ohio State being in Eugene and missing Penn State. A tough game vs Boise State is the only non-conference hurdle. You could convince me that Ohio State, Georgia, or even Texas are better teams. But this is meant to measure how likely a team is to reach the national title game, and I don't think a team in the country is better equipped and more proven than the Oregon Ducks.

Behind them are the usual suspects: Georgia and Penn State both return a lot of talent from teams that dominated last season, while Texas and Ohio State crushed the transfer portal. That top five seems to be a cut above the rest. 

Last year's national champs, Michigan, return the 106th most production in the country. Granted, they are still loaded on defense and have all the ability in the world to run the ball down your throat. But, a lot of things have to go right in order for Michigan to lift that trophy again. The same can be said for Alabama, a team that finds themselves all the way down at #28. The Tide are clearly one of the better teams in the country, but the DeBoer might have a tougher hill to climb that any Saban team over the last fifteen years. More on the Tide later.

Miami, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are all teams that return a bunch of talent and also brought in a good haul. Whether those teams can win the big games is another question, but if they can put the pieces together they could all be Playoff teams. Same goes for Missouri and LSU. Both of those Tigers were just a step behind Georgia and Bama last season and should be in the mix again this year. Ole Miss can join that group too with a little more consistency game to game.

Those are the top teams, and they're somewhat obvious. But there were definitely some teams that were much higher in the rankings than I expected:

Iowa State (#6)

Crazy to think that this team lost to Ohio at home last year. 

No team in the country returns as much production as the Cyclones. What they've lacked in recruiting (#52 in my metric) they've made up for in player development and retention. And this isn't a team that snuck out close wins last season. The Cyclones had the #9 adjusted EPA in the country last season, and this season's schedule isn't much different. Remember, this team had the highest adjusted EPA game of any team last season when they demolished Kansas State in "Farmaggedon" in a snowy Manhattan. Can the Cyclones realistically win the national title this season? No. Can they make the Playoff? Oh yeah. 

Arizona (#18)

The Wildcats lost their coach to Washington, but retained way more talent than anyone thought. Another school that hasn't recruited well (#58), but has managed to have more W's than L's in the transfer portal, Arizona has veteran players that create matchup issues. And considering that they have the 9th easiest schedule in the Power 4 conference, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Wildcats playing for a BIG12 title with a chance of a top 4 Playoff seed on the line. 

Wisconsin (#27)

Once a staple in the top 25, the Badgers have been in rebuilding limbo for a few seasons now. Last year saw a team that struggled to adapt to their new air raid style offense (less than 20 ppg in BIG10 games), but the defense showed out and kept them competitive. Now with another year under their belt in the Luke Fickell era and an upgrade (maybe?) at QB in Miami transfer Tyler van Dyke, the Badgers are a team that could surprisingly get to 8 or 9 wins. It will take some upsets, however, as the Badgers will play Alabama, USC, Penn State, Iowa, and Oregon. But the Badgers have talent. Contrary to the popular narrative, this is a top 35 recruiting program in the nation (higher than Virginia Tech, NC State, Maryland, etc.) that retains talent at a very high rate. Both sides of the ball will be veteran and be improved, and I wouldn't bet against the Badgers in Camp Randall. 

Rice (#42)

Rice?! Yeah.

The Owls are on a quest for their 3rd consecutive bowl season, and I think they have the stuff to do it. Their schedule in the American Conference is favorable, and they return a vast majority of their production. And where they don't return production they did a great job in the portal. New QB EJ Warner (son of NFL Hall-of-Famer Kurt Warner) has led the American Conference in passing each of the past two seasons at Temple. His weapons at Rice will be marginally improved. 

Also important to look at how Rice lost games last season. They had an adjusted EPA of 0.101 (#51) but were -14 in turnovers and had awful special teams woes. Those are fixable issues. 

Defensively, the Owls return 7 starters from the #52 defense in the country. The win total is set at 6.5, and looking at the schedule the Owls could pass that before hosting South Florida in the season finale. 

Sam Houston (#84)

Y'all are gonna love this one. The Bearkats in their second year of FBS football are licking their wounds from a tough 3-9 campaign that involved an 0-8 start. But that wasn't all because they were outmatched. The Bearkats had a ton of injuries last season, especially on offense. OC Brad Cornelson struggled to install much of any offense. But things got better and they finished the season 3-1 with their lone loss being on the road at Western Kentucky by 5 points. Their season also included 2 OT losses and a last-second loss at the hands of undefeated Liberty. This team isn't good, but they aren't that bad. A decent amount of production is coming back, and transfer QB Jase Bauer started 18 games at Central Michigan and performed well. He'll be in a QB battle with Grant Gunnell who has started at North Texas and Arizona. The Bearkats have options and a little more depth, than last season and should see a positive return to the mean. As their head coach K.C. Keeler said, "From the first scrimmage to the last scrimmage, this is probably the most improved team I have seen in 30 years as a head coach."

And now for the teams that surprised me in a bad way.... 

Notre Dame (#24)

The Irish lost a lot on the offensive line and QB Sam Hartmann is in the NFL, so a low returning production measure isn't shocking. Riley Leonard may be a better QB, but he hasn't been able to put together a full season yet. Notre Dame's schedule is easier than normal, but I have them at the 41st toughest in the country. Far from a cake walk. I think this team can make the college football playoff at 10-2 based off brand more than anything else, but going further than the quarterfinals feels like asking too much. 

Alabama (#28)

No, I don't think Alabama is only the 28th best team in the country. But it needs to be said that a team that lost as much talent as they did last season and plays this tough of a schedule is bound to see regression. The Tide finished #13 in adjusted EPA last season and obviously the recruiting has been top notch. But keep in mind that this team went 4-1 in one score games last season and struggled to beat South Florida. They weren't utterly dominant. A brand new WR group and just 9 returning starters means DeBoer and his staff will have to figure things out in August. Of course, the national title is the ceiling for Bama. But don't be surprised if this team goes 9-3 or worse.

Tennessee (#44)

The Vols are 108th in returning production. They may be crushing it on the recruiting trail, but outside of a couple games in 2023 this program has not been able to hang with the big boys of the SEC. 5-star phenom Nico Iamaleava may very well be a Heisman caliber player, and the WR group is elite, but losses all over the defense point to the Vols struggling to stop the better offenses they will face. I've been vocal about it this offseason, but I think we need to temper our expectations in Knoxville. 

North Carolina State (#56)

The most shocking to me by far. The Wolfpack were great in the transfer portal, performed very well last season, and have a pretty easy schedule. What's the issue? Well, let's dive into last season. NC State was #52 in adjusted EPA and outside of star WR Kevin Concepcion they lose most of their receiving production. LB Payton Wilson had a ridiculous 138 tackles last season. He was everything to that defense leading them in tackles, INTs, TFLs, and 2nd in Sacks. Can they find guys to piece together that production? Maybe, but it's a tall task. The recruiting has been meh (#41 over the past two cycles in average player rating), so star talent is few and far between. This program really relies on veterans from the transfer portal. If they don't hit, NC State could have just another 8 win season. If they do hit? Then the Playoff is in sight.

Tulane (#77)

There's a fair amount of hype around the Tulane program with new coach Jon Sumrall having everyone ready to run through a brick wall. But there's reason to be cautious. The Green Wave lost a ton on defense, and the best QB in school history, Michael Pratt, has gone to the NFL. Plenty of talent remains, but expecting this team to win the American conference may be too much in year 1. The schedule also provides some challenges. Games against Kansas State and Oklahoma are tough enough, but South Florida and Memphis are both teams that can win this conference. And despite 11 wins last season, the Green Wave finished just 66th in adjusted EPA (does not include bowl game vs Virginia Tech). Going 4-0 in one score games is great, but when those games come against North Texas, Rice, ECU, and Tulsa I start to ask some questions. The Green Wave will continue to be one of the best mid-major programs in the country, but it may take a year or two to get back to the top.

Virginia Tech comes in at an impressive #16 in my program power rankings. That's a substantial jump from the #78 spot they held last season. That's the 6th highest jump of any team. How did they make such a big jump in one season? 

The biggest contributing factor is returning production, where the Hokies come in at #23 in the country. That may seem a bit lower than some fans expect, but keep in mind the Hokies lost six defensive starters as well as their three top defensive tackles and their 3rd leading receiver. That's quite a bit. Still, the bulk of the star talent remains on this team. And that's somewhat of a miracle in 2024. 

The schedule is also very favorable. It ranks as the 2nd easiest in Power 4 behind just SMU. That's a massive advantage, even in a relatively less top-heavy. For context, ACC favorites Florida State and Clemson have the #20 and #21 toughest schedules in the country, respectively. Per my power rankings, the Hokies will play seven teams ranked #57 or lower in the country. That's over half your schedule against middle to bottom half competition. Later, I'll preview the Hokies schedule, but for now know that I fully expect the Hokies to have significant advantages in most games. 

The third major reason the Hokies saw such a jump in these rankings is how well they played down the stretch last season. Even after a rough first month, the Hokies finished #29 in adjusted EPA, ahead of teams like James Madison, Oklahoma State, NC State, and West Virginia. Not bad for a 7-6 team (again, non-full strength bowl games did not get calculated). 

There are areas that the Hokies need to improve in order to give themselves a chance agains the big dogs in the sport. Again, a #16 ranking can be interpreted as the team can has the 16th best chance at competing for a national title. It doesn't mean they rank as the 16th best team in the country. For starters, recruiting over the past 2 classes is significantly behind the top 10% of the sport. If the Hokies want to win at a high level, recruiting not only needs to improve but it needs to take a pretty gargantuan leap. Recruiting for the past two cycles is at #42 in terms of average player rating. That's not good enough. But the building blocks are there, and the transfer portal has certainly been kind over the past two cycles. I'd expect that to continue to be leveraged. If we're trying to measure what the ceiling is for this Hokies team, it looks like a trip to the CFP isn't out of the question, but anything more than that would be just short of a miracle.  

Overall, the ACC should see some positive growth on the national scale. There will be plenty of opportunities against some of the best competition outside of the conference, and many ACC teams lost closely in those kind of games last season. I also would expect teams like Virginia Tech and Miami to perform better early in the season. If there are three teams I'm absolutely buying based off this analysis and other factors such as coaching and continuity, it's: Virginia Tech, Clemson, and SMU. Who am I absolutely selling? Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, and Duke should really struggle. Those might be your bottom three in the conference. 

Vanderbilt (#95)

The Commodores struggled all over the field last season (#89 adjusted EPA), especially on defense. They lost their best playmaker on offense to the portal, and some new offensive wrinkles and a new QB (either NMSU transfer Diego Pavia or Utah transfer Nate Johnson) will have less to work with than at their previous stops. Vanderbilt will get better as the season progresses, but I don't see them putting up much of a fight in week 1. 

Marshall (#113)

Last season, the Herd were a veteran team with tons of proven all-conference level talent. They are not that this season. The Herd at #107 in returning production, and the offense could realistically have 10 new starters. Seth Doege, former Texas Tech QB, will be looking to install the air raid system in Huntington. That won't match up well against the Hokies, who go 4 deep at corner and have a solid pass rush on the ends. Lindy's ranks the Herd at #100 and Athlon at #103. It's a rebuilding year at Marshall, and this is a home game the Hokies should handle. 

Old Dominion (#108)

Another team that doesn't return much production (#85), the Monarchs have struggled in the portal era. They return their QB who gave the Hokies a little trouble running, but the defense has been completely overturned outside of star LB Jason Henderson. This is a team that last season Hokies racked up a passing game that rated in the 90th percentile of all games since 2022. I'd expect a similar offensive output this season. And as for the house of horrors in Norfolk, the Hokies had the 3rd highest EPA margin in a loss of any team in 2021-2022. A statistical anomaly is an understatement. I don't expect that to happen again, especially with a veteran team. 

Rutgers (#31)

Rutgers was a bad matchup at a bad time for the Hokies last season, and will be a tough out again this year. They're #12 in returning production, and are making a change at QB to Minnesota transfer Anthony Kaliakmanis where the threat of a pass will at least be existent in their offense. The Scarlet Knights got beat up by every good team they played last season. Even Maryland took them to the wood shed. But the interior running game gave the Hokies fits, and they return star RB Kyle Monangai and the bulk of their offensive line. The two biggest factors in this game will be that it is in Blacksburg and that the Scarlet Knights will not have been tested in the slightest yet to start the season. They have games against Howard and Akron. 

Miami (#10)

Hokie fans will scoff, but Miami has every ingredient for a top 10 team. They are #6 in returning production, upgraded at QB with Cam Ward, and will be playing this game at home. The Canes have also done a great job recruiting over the past two cycles, #6 nationally. It's going to be hard for the Hokies to win in Miami on a short week. That being said, this is a Mario Cristobal coached team. And the Canes have a tough start to the season with games against Florida and South Florida before facing the Hokies. If they lose one or both of those, they could be a team with no motivation. That being said, I wouldn't bet too hard against the Canes this year. You tease the dog too many times and eventually he'll bite. 

Stanford (#69)

The Cardinal return a ton of players, the issue is those players aren't very good. Stanford finished #133 in adjusted EPA last season (second to last!), and were pasted by just about every team with a pulse they played. I like their head coach Troy Taylor, but he doesn't have much to work with even with a veteran team. The Cardinal will be improved, but even with long travel the Hokies should overpower them on the line of scrimmage. 

Boston College (#57)

The Eagles return a good amount, but their struggles against the top half competition of their schedule will likely continue. An adjusted EPA of just 0.019 last season shows how much this team really struggled, and that's not even including their narrow victory against FCS Holy Cross (FCS games are not included in data collection). The schedule is also slightly more difficult than their ACC counterparts, and non-conference games against Missouri and Michigan State will make bowl eligibility tough. 

Georgia Tech (#61)

It was a season of hot and cold for Georgia Tech last year, and I'd expect that to continue again this season. One week they beat Miami on the road, another week they lose to Bowling Green at home. A big factor in this is their porous defense, which ranked among the worst in the conference. That unit should be marginally better, but it probably won't be enough for the Yellow Jackets to contend on a weekly basis. This team will pull upsets, but anything above 8 wins seems highly unlikely with this schedule, which ranks as the second toughest in the nation.

Syracuse (#30)

The Orange return a lot from an injury riddled 2023, and did a great job in the transfer portal. How well those pieces mesh remains to be seen, but the talent is there and the schedule is manageable. The line of scrimmage is a problem, and that wasn't addressed well enough in the transfer portal. This #30 ranking is a product of their schedule and their returning production, not performance on the field. However, this is the kind of team that could pull some big upsets if they can win one-on-one matchups.

Clemson (#21)

The Tigers are loaded, but inexperienced. They'll need bluechip recruits to step up, but Dabo has had a tendency of getting that done. The schedule is tough with a neutral site against Georgia and road tests against Florida State and Virginia Tech, but Clemson should still be seen as the class of this conference. The Tigers have the 2nd highest recruiting score in the ACC, and their returning production numbers are very high despite the fact that much of the WR room was injured last season. It might be time to buy low on the Tigers.

Duke (#89)

If there's a team due for some serious regression in the ACC, it's Duke. The Blue Devils road the turnover machine for much of last season and lose the bulk of their production (#101 in returning production), and a school like Duke won't recruit well enough to survive that kind of attrition (#63 nationally). It could be a rough season for the Blue Devils as they begin the Manny Diaz era. 

Virginia (#64)

The Wahoos lost a lot of close games last season...and they also got blown out a bunch. An adjusted EPA of -0.128 shows just how badly they lost some games. A decent amount is returning on both sides of the ball, but an overhaul at offensive line was needed and that didn't happen this off season. The recruiting has not been good under Tony Elliot (#68), but a couple transfer portal additions may make the offense more explosive for whoever is at QB. The schedule is also not very friendly. It looks like the ceiling is 6-6, and the floor is 2-10. 

Last season, I only revisited this model at the end of the regular season. However, with the new playoff format creating a "bracketology" in the sport I'll be using this model to create the first ever Sons of Saturday CFB Rankings. My goal will be a "bracketology" style ranking of the top 20, with the 12 playoff teams in their respective seeding order along with 8 teams that are in the hunt. This will not be a ranking of the 25 best teams in the country, but instead a look into what the potential playoff bracket could be. Rankings will be calculated on Sundays and released on the College Football Monday show on the Sons of Saturday YouTube page. I look forward to all of you agreeing with me, and if you've managed to read this far a sincere thank you. Let's go play some football!