College Football Midseason Report: Breaking Down the Biggest Surprises, CFP Contenders, and More

Evan Bainer

October 14, 2024

Through the first seven weeks of the 2024 college football season there’s been a number of predicted outcomes early on, however there are surprises that have left the rest of the season up in the air for some programs.

Some college football fans might say the downfall of the Florida State football team needs to be studied; others would probably suggest that this is typical FSU. Regardless, the Seminoles have not at all looked like the competitor everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season. Through seven weeks, Florida State has gone 1-5 with its sole win being against new ACC team California.

FSU’s 1-5 start comes after it was snubbed from last year’s college football playoff after going 13-0, which included winning the ACC Championship game. For a team that was projected to be a top-tier contender this year, both in the ACC and in college football as a whole, Florida State has looked and been anything but that. While its struggles could very well be due to players like Keon Coleman and Jared Verse getting drafted into the NFL, FSU has for the most part shown little threat to ACC teams this season, losing by 14 or more points each to Boston College, SMU, and Clemson.

This season may have just been a fluke for the Tallahassee team, however it’s not a good look for a program that has been looking to leave the ACC in recent years. With missing a bowl game very well being a possibility (as FSU still has two ranked teams in Miami and Notre Dame left on its schedule), the Mike Norvell-led team needs a quick and impressive turnaround in order to salvage the 2024 season. The ACC will likely belong to Miami or Clemson this season though, as both teams have been heavy favorites through the first half of the season and appear to have become the two top contenders from the conference.  

The defending champions have gotten off to a slow start this season, going 4-2 over their first six games. Michigan’s decline was expected this season as a result of key pieces like head coach Jim Harbaugh, quarterback J.J. McCarthy, and running back Blake Corum moving on to the NFL. However, the Wolverines are facing missing the college football playoff for the first time in three years. With losses to Texas and Washington under its belt already, Michigan still needs to play two Big Ten powerhouses in Oregon and Ohio State this season. Needless to say, the Wolverines’ first season under Sherrone Moore will likely be one that doesn't result in a CFP bid.

The Big 12 Conference last year was for the most part run by Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. This year, however, the conference is still up in the air in terms of which team will take over the top spot. Texas and Oklahoma are now a part of the SEC, and Oklahoma State is currently sitting at 3-3, with all three of those losses being to Big 12 opponents (Utah, Kansas State, and West Virginia).

With the top spot up for grabs in 2024, there’s a handful of teams that could make a late season playoff push. Iowa State, BYU, and Kansas State look to be the early favorites for the conference, as all three teams were ranked heading into week seven. While Colorado has all of the hype around the program with Travis Hunter and Deion and Shadeur Sanders, it could also very well make a strong bid for a playoff spot down the stretch. The Buffaloes schedule isn’t very difficult the rest of the season, with former PAC-12 opponent Utah being the team’s biggest matchup the rest of the year. Even so, the Utes have struggled with conference play this year, dropping their games against Arizona and Arizona State over the past two weeks.

No matter which team comes out on top of the Big 12 in 2024, that team will most likely be the only one from the conference in the college football playoff. With the SEC and Big Ten dominating college football this season, there’s going to be very little room for error for the Big 12 teams. The strength of schedule within the conference will almost definitely be seen as inferior compared to that of Big Ten and SEC teams. 

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty has been on an absolute tear this season. Through six games Jeanty leads college football with 1,248 rushing yards (over 300 yards more than Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, who is college football’s second-leading rusher so far) and 17 rushing touchdowns (two more than Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson, the second-highest touchdown scorer so far). Furthermore, Jeanty is currently averaging 9.9 yards per carry, and 6.5 yards after contact. The Boise State back has catapulted himself to the top of the Heisman watch list and has so far become the favorite to win the award. If he does win it, he’ll be the first running back to win the Heisman since Derrick Henry did it in 2015.

If Texas can keep up the play it's been having for the rest of the season, it will almost certainly secure the #1 seed in the college football playoff. This comes so long as the Longhorns win remaining contests against SEC powerhouse Georgia and sneaky contentender Texas A&M, as well as avoid an upset against Vanderbilt (which already took down Alabama this season). Oregon could snatch the top spot from Texas, however, especially if it wins out the rest of the season. With its win against Ohio State on Saturday, Oregon has proven it can compete with some of the top teams in the country. If the Ducks win out, and the Longhorns drop a game, there could be a swap in the standings late in the season. Nonetheless, this Texas squad led by Quinn Ewers and Steve Sarkisian is and looks to be the team to beat so far this season.

In its debut season in the Big Ten, Oregon has quickly become the top team in the conference. The Ducks took control atop the conference on Saturday with their pivotal victory over Ohio State in what could be considered as the game of the year so far in college football. Heisman hopeful QB Dillon Gabriel has made a significant impact on this Oregon team after transferring from Oklahoma this past offseason and taking over the role once held by Bo Nix, who’s now the quarterback for the Denver Broncos. As of right now, it seems that head coach Dan Lanning and this Oregon team is well on the way to securing a spot in the Big Ten Championship as well as a top four seed in the CFP.

The ACC title is Miami’s to lose this season. Besides maybe Louisville and Georgia Tech, the Hurricanes don’t play any high-caliber contenders in the ACC for the rest of the season. Quarterback Cam Ward has paved the way for this team through the first half of the season, leading college football in touchdowns (20) and throwing for 2,219 yards (the second highest amount in college football behind Mississippi's Jaxson Dart). Miami’s biggest test for the rest of the season will likely come in the ACC Championship, their opponent for which will likely be Clemson. The Tigers are currently ranked 10th after week 7 and will likely be the team that provides the biggest challenge for the Canes out of the ACC.

The #4 seed in the CFP will most likely come from the Big 12. Knowing which team will take that spot is less obvious. As of now, Iowa State probably has the best chance to win the conference. The Cyclones are undefeated through their first six games, and their only tough game for the rest of the season is against Kansas State in week 14.. Iowa State appears to be the favorite in the Big 12 for the rest of the season. However, BYU and Kansas State could very well knock the Cyclones from that final top-four spot in the CFP. Right now, the race is more so for a spot in the conference championship game, which will be the ticket to the CFP for whichever team in the Big 12 can hold off the rest.

With the new expanded playoff, many people knew that Penn State would almost certainly make it into this year’s bracket after nearly missing out of the CFP in recent years. However, the Nittany Lions have surpassed expectations so far this season, being ranked third in the AP Poll after week 7. While the team has a lot going for it, it’ll be difficult to secure the first round bye in a conference with Oregon and Ohio State. Penn State will likely fall into the #5 seed in the CFP and play #12 seed Boise State, a team that shouldn’t be taken for granted in 2024. This situation will come so long as teams like Army and Navy don't swipe the spot for the Group of Five team.

Ohio State is one win away from being the top team in the Big Ten. Although the Buckeyes lost to Oregon this past weekend, they can still secure a top spot in the playoffs at the end of the year. Mainly, Ohio State will at least need wins against teams like Indiana and Michigan. Considering the Buckeyes do this, their crucial matchup against Penn State in week 10 will likely determine which of those two teams make the Big Ten Championship and which will take the lower seeding in the CFP bracket.

Tennessee has started to slow down over the past two weeks, with both a loss to Arkansas and narrowly beating Florida in overtime. However, if the Volunteers can play well the rest of the season, especially in their games against Alabama and Georgia, they can possibly grab a final spot in the playoff bracket.

While the Bulldogs lost their crucial game to Alabama earlier this season, they still are one of the best teams in college football in 2024. Georgia is a team this season that could still grab a spot in the playoffs with more than two losses on the year. The Bulldogs have all the talent they need, it’s just a matter of getting the big wins against top-echelon teams.

Clemson right now is the second contender for the ACC title. Currently ranked 10th, the Tigers will likely pick up a lower seed in the CFP bracket if they don’t win the ACC championship. This is in part due to the weaker strength of schedule they have compared to those of Big Ten and SEC schools. As of now, however, Clemson is a team that will likely be able to punch a playoff ticket at the end of the season.

After Nick Saban’s retirement this past offseason, many people might say that Alabama this season hasn’t looked the way it usually has in recent years. While the Crimson Tide got the victory against Georgia earlier this season, they were also upset by Vanderbilt and narrowly evaded a loss against South Carolina this past Saturday. Although Alabama has had a shaky start under Kalen DeBoer in his first season with the team, the program from Tuscaloosa almost always finds a way to make it to New Year’s Six play.

Since their last-minute loss to USC in week one, the LSU Tigers have shown a tremendous bounceback over their last five games, most notably holding on for an OT victory against Ole Miss this past Saturday. At its current state, LSU could very well lose a game to either Texas A&M or Alabama in the second half of the season and still make the College Football Playoff.

As college football heads into the second half of the season, the Big Ten and SEC still and likely will control most of the top spots in program rankings. However, there have already been some mix ups from both the Big 12 and ACC as well as non-Power-Five conferences. Boise State is currently vying for top spots within the top 25 every week. Army and Navy could both go undefeated until they meet each other in their annual matchup at the end of the season. SMU and Pitt are both thriving in the ACC. Indiana and Illinois are currently ranked and fighting for top spots in the Big Ten after finishing at the bottom of the conference just last year. 

With teams getting into the thick of conference play in the second half of the season, there will (hopefully) be a clearer picture into what the CFP bracket will look like in December.