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Lock$ of Saturday: Week 13

By Sam Jessee | November 25
Lock$ of Saturday: Week 13

The Hokies will not fail to cover the spread this weekend.

The Hokies may be getting a much needed bye week to simmer down, but the crew from the Lock$ of Saturday continues to heat up.

It's defacto rivalry week on this holiday weekend, and there are some heated matchups all across the country.

We decided to mix things up again this week. Each Scribe has devised a parlay bet and 3 single game bets for this weekend. Call it a choose your own adventure weekend.

Before our crew begin their journey on their betting adventure, let's take a look at the scoreboard moving into Week 13:

W13

Chris

The Rivalry Week Parlay

Cal -1.5 vs Stanford, Oregon -13.5 vs Oregon State, Alabama -24.5 vs Auburn, Ole Miss ML -330 vs Mississippi State (Total: +807)

Turkey, day drinking, and college football rivalries. Thanksgiving and Rivalry Week are both steadfast holiday season traditions where families and opposing fan bases alike band together to say how much they hate each other. With that in mind, these four rivalry matchups offer the best value and combine for a very tasty +807 parlay. Bon appetit!

Iowa State Pick'em @ Texas

After hitting a speed bump to start the season, the Cyclones have been firing on all cylinders in conference play with the only blemish being a 3 point road loss to Oklahoma State. Iowa State holds the edge on offense, defense, is better coached, and is playing for its first conference championship since the days of the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association (MVIAA) back in 1912.

Memphis @ Navy +13.5

Don’t get me wrong, Navy is not good this season but this spread is too many points between two teams that are both terrible, especially since the Midshipmen have faced the nation’s top rushing and passing offenses which have drastically skewed their statistical performance.

Coastal Carolina -17.0 @ Texas State

The best story in college football continues in another dominating performance as Coastal Carolina and their top 25 scoring offense (and one of the most efficient offenses in the nation) strolls into San Marcos for an easy win (let’s be honest, none of you knew where Texas State was located).

Brett

The Anger-Infused Parlay

Indiana -11 vs. Maryland, Alabama -24.5 vs. Auburn, Clemson -24 vs. Pitt (Total: +596)

Clemson is PISSED about having their game cancelled this past weekend and they face a Pitt team that has several Covid-19 issues. Alabama is playing in the Iron Bowl with arguably the best offense they’ve had in a decade and I still think Auburn is overrated. Indiana played OSU extremely tough, expect them to keep that momentum going as they will wallop Maryland.

Notre Dame -4.0 @ UNC

For the longest time I wanted to think the Irish were overrated again. *Channels Lee Corso*, NOT SO FAST! Notre Dame is going to control the game trying to keep their place in the top four. UNC already is looking forward to next season after their dreams have been crumbled. Give me the Irish by a touchdown or more.

Alabama vs. Auburn Over 62.5

As we know, Alabama is capable of putting up over 60 points themselves. If Auburn wants to keep it close, it is going to have to be a shootout for the Iron Bowl ages. The Tide don’t need Saban to put up the points!

Northwestern -13.5 @ Michigan State

Northwestern is first in the Big Ten West. Yes, NORTHWESTERN IS FIRST IN THE BIG TEN WEST. I had to yell that one to make sure this was real. Man this team is HOT right now and no one is talking about it! Michigan State, however, is quite the opposite. Aside from their win over Michigan, they have looked abysmal. They have put up seven total points in their last two games while Northwestern have defeated a ranked Wisconsin team and a tough Purdue team. It must be that lakeside facility.


Tony elliott

Robert

The “Let’s Bet Every ACC Game and See What Happens” Parlay (AKA the Mark Packer)

North Carolina ML vs. Notre Dame, NC State -14.5 @ Syracuse, Clemson -23.5 vs. Pittsburgh, Louisville ML @ Boston College, Georgia Tech Pick’em vs. Duke, Florida State ML @ Virginia, Louisville-Boston College OVER (Total: +26000)

Auburn +24.5 @ Alabama

Listen, listen. I know Auburn has not been as good this season as they normally are. But you know what? This is the Iron Bowl, Auburn has won three games in a row and this is still a top-25 matchup. I’m as down on Bo Nix as anybody, but I believe Auburn has enough to cover this enormous spread, even without Tank Bigsby.

Maryland +12.0 @ Indiana

Sure, Maryland has not played a football game in three weeks after their previous two games were canceled. But the energy surrounding this Mike Locksley/Baby Tua combo is palpable. Indiana, meanwhile, is coming off a matchup in which they showed their legitimacy against Ohio State, but may have burned themselves out in the process. Since 2017, teams are 3-6 the week after either beating Ohio State or losing by one possession. It takes every bit of a team’s energy to beat the Buckeyes, so a letdown could be in store for the Hoosiers. At the very least, they will likely be sluggish enough for Maryland to cover this bigger spread.

Kansas State +5.5 @ Baylor

This spread seems almost too good to be true. 4-4 Kansas State is a 5.5-point underdog against a 1-5 Baylor team. K-State’s trajectory has plummeted, as they have lost three in a row, which probably explains Vegas’ logic here. But Baylor has been worse, as they have not won a game since September. That one win was against Kansas, who is awful, so Baylor really has no right being favored in any game they play this year. I would not ever recommend watching this game, as these are two bad teams, but I like the Wildcats to cover.


Markpacker

Sam

West Coast After Dark Parlay presented by In-N-Out

Nevada -6.5 @ Hawaii, Boise State -13.5 vs. San Jose State, Washington -7.0 vs Utah (Total: +597)

Grab a venti iced nonfat caramel macchiato with triple shots and a flying dutchman, cause it's 10pm and it's kickoff time!

You want a sleeper team of the year? No you don't, you want a LIT team. You want the pride of Reno, the Nevada Wolfpack. The Wolfpack are 5-0 overall and 4-1 against the spread this season. Soph. QB Carson Strong has been a field general out there with 14 TD’s and just 2 INT’s. He has one of the most underrated athletic freaks in the nation to throw to in Romeo Doubs. The 6’3 junior can do it all, and is a matchup nightmare. Hawaii is in a rebuilding year, but they have been frisky all season. The Rainbow Warriors will put up a fight, but I like the Wolfpack to enjoy their trip to the islands.

San Jose State is one of the best stories in the nation this year. The Spartans are 4-0 for the first time in basically forever. But that won’t last. You don’t bet against the blue turf. Hank Bachemier is back and healthy for the Broncos who have their swagger back after dismantling Colorado State last week with 3 special teams touchdowns. I think Boise knocks off the Spartans and maybe sneak back into the top 25.

The matchup between Washington and Utah just got scheduled and I think that favors the more talented team heavily. In this case, that is clearly the Huskies as the Utes are in the midst of a rebuilding year. Not only is tailgating on a yacht in the sound for a Washington game on my college football bucket list, but they have a live husky mascot, Dubs II, on the sidelines. Are you going to bet against an adorable husky named Dubs? I didn't think you would.

Oregon -13.5 @ Oregon State

Oregon and Oregon State have been playing since 1894 in what had been dubbed “The Civil War”. Well it turns out civil wars are a little touchy nowadays so they are currently taking suggestions for a new name. Enter “The War on the Willamete.” Beavers vs. Ducks on the winding, picturesque river that connects Corvallis and Eugene.

Oregon is -13.5 in this matchup, and I think that’s a line to jump on. The Ducks struggled a bit against UCLA, but have all the talent to run up the score here, even against a very improved Beavers team. The Ducks have won 11 of the last 12 against the Beavers. Quack Attack takes this one by a couple TD’s.

Notre Dame -4.0 @ North Carolina

The Irish aren’t messing around this year. They have their eyes on a CFP spot, and it’s well within their reach. North Carolina is exactly who we thought they were; they’re immensely talented and immensely inconsistent.

We often think of Notre Dame as being an elite team at home, but the Irish have been equally impressive away from South Bend. The Irish are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 away games and are getting a one possession line against the Tar Heels.

Notre Dame has so long been like a seasonal craft beer. You never really knew if it was going to be amazing, just okay, or awful. This Irish team is just like a pint of the new official beer of Notre Dame football: Guiness. Consistent, smooth, bold, classic. Can't go wrong picking the Irish in this one.

Indiana -12.0 vs Maryland

The most important thing we learned about Indiana last week is how much heart the Hoosiers play with. It looked like Ohio State was going to run away with that game, but Tom Allen’s Hoosiers kept playing and made it a game late in the 4th quarter. I think their defensive line’s ability to cause havoc in the backfield for one of the the nation’s most dynamic QB’s in Justin Fields shocked most college football fans.

I think the Hoosiers can put 30+ on anyone in the nation. Penix Jr. has been so good at QB this season and isn’t afraid of anyone. I could really see the Hoosiers skill players running circles around UMD screaming "Where are the Turtles?! Where are they?!"

You and the boys when the West Coast After Dark Parlay presented by In-N-Out hits

Ed

The Get Rich Quick Parlay

Indiana -12.0 @ Maryland, FAU -6.5 @ Middle Tennessee (Total: +276)

Maryland hasn't played in a few weeks and Indiana is coming off a game where they held their own against Ohio State. I think Maryland will play a solid game, but Indiana covers even if it's just by a point. On the backend of this bet, I like Florida Atlantic to win by a touchdown against a very average MTSU team. FAU has won 5 straight and that will continue this week.

Auburn +24.5 vs Alabama

Rivalry game, anything can happen. The Alabama offense is pretty much unstoppable, but i'm going to rely on Nick Saban being out due to COVID to keep this close.

Ole Miss vs Miss St Over 68.0

Lets get weird! 68 is an insane number, but traditionally this is also an insane game. Two offensive minded coaches and a crazy high number, what could possibly go wrong.

Notre Dame @ UNC Under 67.0

Two teams that I have a very hard time being a believer in. I can't imagine these two putting up similar offensive numbers to those we will see in the Egg Bowl, so ill hammer the Under in this one. I also like Notre Dame -5, for what it's worth.


Ryan

The Over The Hill and Through The Woods Parlay

South Carolina vs. Georgia O49, Louisville vs. Boston College O55, Notre Dame vs. UNC O67.5 (Total: +615)

South Carolina and Georgia over 49

Welcome to the Jimmer Fredette parlay of the day. I call it this because when I think of points I don’t think of anyone but Jimmer. SEC overs are making a reappearance in my picks because of JT Daniels. The guy looked incredible for Georgia and I think will come out guns ablazing in this one. USC is struggling to find any footing but I think they honestly need to put up 14 for this one to hit because Georgia is going to roll here

Louisville and Boston College over 55

These two teams at 55? I like this over a lot. Two quarterbacks who are talented in very different ways with Jurkovec through the air and Cunningham more on the ground but this to me is a high scoring afar where the first to 35 or 40 wins it. I am banking on the defenses to struggle. Both of these teams this year have shown the ability to score. The key here will be can Louisville score against BC in my opinion because if they put up anything close to 21-28 this one is over the total for me.

Notre Dame and UNC Over 67.5

This one is the most touch and go but when in doubt I am going to shoot it just like Jimmer would. I have a feeling that UNC will stay in this one for a long time and in order to do that they will need to throw it a ton. I think this goes over just because the gameplan for UNC has to be to outscore the Irish. Sam Howell has shown he can have big days and he will need one here. I like a sneaky UNC ML bet here too if you want to toss in something to spice it up.


Sam Jessee

I'm a born and raised Hokie. My first game in Lane Stadium was in September of 1997 when Tech stomped Big East rival Syracuse 31-3. I graduated from Tech with a degree in Finance in 2019 and am currently in Blacksburg getting my MBA in data analytics and statistics. Born and raised in Richmond, VA, where I was a Deep Run Wildcat with fellow Son Grayson Wimbish, NFL Hokie Antone Exum, and Blacksburg legend Jack Click.


I'm a certified analytics nerd with a passion for data visualization and modeling. Much of my work is written with an analytical flair. I host the Lock$ of Saturday podcast where we talk all things college football betting as well work on the baseball beat.


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