Lock$ of Saturday: Week 6

It was a much-needed bounce-back for the fellas. Well, Robert and Sam at least. Brett's cold streak continues as he falls to -12.9 units. Perhaps there is a little more magic to go around. Here are the complete standings:

Robert: 41-42, +5.46 units

Sam: 26-29, -5.3 units

Brett: 24-37, -12.9 units

Addition by subtraction? That’s certainly what it seems like with the UNLV QB situation. No disrespect to Matthew Sluka, but Hajj-Malik Williams looked fantastic on Saturday in a statement win. He did what he needed to do: run the ball well and get it to Ricky White III. I expect him to do the same as the Rebels’ defense limits Syracuse’s rushing attack. UNLV can secure their third P4 win and firmly grasp the wheel in the drive for the CFP.

This is such a weird game. I think I’m going to lean on the team that has an extra year working in their system and is at home. UNLV wants to run the ball in their “Fun-N-Gun” offense, and Syracuse has struggled against the run this season with the #108 EPA/Rush defense even with a light schedule to start the season. I think UNLV can win this game much like they beat Kansas (and much like Syracuse lost to Stanford).

A wild week last week for the Rebel after being in the spotlight due to the departure of Matthew Sluka, but that didn’t change a thing. Hajj-Malik Williams is electric. He is a QB that is hard to plan for because he is capable of running for 200+ but also does have the ability to hit the deep ball. Fran Brown is in REAL unfamiliar territory here and I like the team with the momentum.

There is no longer a QB controversy in Dallas. This is Kevin Jennings’ team, and he has led the Mustangs to a fantastic turnaround after that debilitating loss to BYU in Week 3. In fact, the Mustangs have scored 108 points in their last two games. This is the SMU team everyone was excited about, and they have an opportunity to prove they are a legit ACC contender. Louisville is a good team, but I expect a letdown after they poured their hearts out in a loss to ND. Take the SMU moneyline.

Louisville is an awesome team at home. Since Brohm took over at the beginning of last season, they’ve outscored FBS opponents by an average of two touchdowns at home, and that includes multiple ranked teams. SMU on the other hand has been a bit chaotic, but somehow is sitting at 4-1 with a solid shot to make the ACC title game with a win this weekend. However, I think the Cards are just a better organization right now. SMU has struggled with penalties and turnovers all season. I think that’s the difference. 

While I think SMU has turned it around after a less than stellar start to the season, they have beaten some sorry teams. Louisville is a disciplined and well coached team as they showed even against an angry Notre Dame squad. If this game was at SMU, I would lean to them, but I like the Cards at home here.

The Tigers haven’t been quite as advertised, but this is still an easy pick for me. They are a better team than A&M, plain and simple. Give me the points.

Mizzou hasn’t been as dominant to start this season, but the defense has been stout, and the offense hasn’t had to show much. A&M on the other hand has had to show their whole hand in games against Notre Dame and Arkansas, and they weren’t able to do much offensively in either of those games. Also of note: The Aggies are 0-3 against the spread in their last 3 seasons after the Arkansas game.

I think TAMU has looked significantly better under Elko, even with less talent. However, that is the problem. Mizzou is a far more talented and experienced team and needs a statement win. This is their chance to get back in the conversation and I expect a big game from Luther Burden III. The play here is Tigers ML, not the spread.

I don’t think enough is being said about Iowa’s improvement on offense. They have now scored 30+ points in 3 of 4 games, a feat they only accomplished once last season. Meanwhile, Ohio State looks good, but their strength of schedule thus far is ranked 123rd in the country - 2nd lowest in the P4. I expect the Buckeyes to be shell shocked by a tough team coming off a bye that is far better than the cupcakes they have played so far. The Buckeyes will likely get the win, but it will be a grind.

I just don’t see a world where Iowa can hang for 60 minutes. The Buckeyes are suffocating on defense, and that’s not a good sign for an Iowa offense that is only slightly better than the dumpster fire they trotted out last year. 

While I think OSU is a fantastic football team, they have left me a lot of questions at QB with Will Howard. Iowa’s coming off a bye and have played good teams already while OSU has slept walk through the first quarter of the schedule. I like Iowa here to muck it up early and make it uncomfortable for OSU. 

I understand the desire to take Cal here. The Calgorithm, College GameDay, the 10:30 p.m. EST kickoff, it all points to an upset for the Golden Bears. However, I just don’t see it from a matchup standpoint. This is not an athletic team, and Miami should dominate them on both ends. Cam Ward had multiple “uh-oh” moments on Friday, and his team still survived. Ward is too good to play like that twice in a row. Miami will score a lot late to pull away and cover this spread.

The spot. This is all about the spot. This is one of the biggest games Cal has seen in decades. Giving them two possessions at home against a Miami defense that showed some flaws last week? Feels like Cal keeps it close at minimum.

System and emotional play. That is all.

The Hokies showed me something on Friday, and while there are still plenty of questions about their late-game execution, this is the level of play we fell in love with last year as they routinely beat the brakes off of inferior opponents. Yes, Brent Pry is 1-10 in one-score games, but that won’t be close to a factor in this one. I expect a motivated, angry Hokie squad to run away with it.

The Hokies are probably pretty pissed off. Meanwhile, Stanford has flown cross country in back-to-back weekends. Many thought this would be an awful spot for the Hokies, but I actually see it as a really good bounce back opportunity. As far as the matchup, I like Virginia Tech’s defensive line to create a good amount of havoc in this game against an offensive line that can’t block anyone and a QB that loves to hang on to the ball a bit too much. I don’t think Stanford will be able to throw the ball much, and Tech should continue to see improvement on offense. I like the Hokies by about 17 in this one.

Simply put, the Hokies don’t have a choice but to beat the brakes off Stanford. They are a better football team, by a wide margin. If you are planning to take Stanford to cover, I think you are better off with the value for them to win. Tech will either come out strong and win by several scores or come out completely flat and defeated from what has transpired to lose this game. 

Oregon -24.0 vs Michigan State

Army -12.0 @ Tulsa

BC +1.5 @ UVA

Navy -10.0 @ Air Force

Parlay SMU ML vs UL and o56.0, +450

NC State -5.5 vs Wake Forest

Georgia -24.0 vs Auburn

Parlay Indiana -13.5 @ NW and o41.5, +220

ECU/Charlotte u47.0

WVU +136 @ Oklahoma State

Clemson alt spread -20.5 @ Florida State (+152)

Army -10.5 @ Tulsa

Navy -8.5 @ Air Force

Charlotte +9.5 vs ECU

Tennessee -13.5 @ Arkansas

Duke +9.5 @ Georgia Tech

Texas Tech ML @ Arizona +200

Indiana -13.5 @ Northwestern

Taking the week off, for good measure (a.k.a put in timeout).