Lock$ of Saturday: Week 7

Things are looking up for us. Well, some of us.

A great week from Sam brings him to .500 on the year and down only 2 units. Brett is still on a bit of a cold streak with his picks, but hopefully a betting detox can get him back on track.

Robert: 48-52, +7.12 units
Sam: 34-34, -2.0 units
Brett: 26-41, -15.1 units

This is a puzzling line for me. Utah’s offense has been horrific since Cam Rising got hurt (again), and Kyle Whittingham was extremely cryptic about Rising's chances of playing in this one (again). Cam Skattebo is a delight to watch for the Sun Devils. Seems pretty easy to take the points for a home underdog in a big Friday night spot.

For a program that has been so good at keeping their nose to the grindstone, Utah seems to be faltering with some internal questions. The Cam Rising injury saga has lasted over 18 games now, and backup Isaac Wilson is simply not ready for action. The defense is still elite, and there are plenty of weapons on offense, but the whole offense just looks a bit confused and uninspired. On the other side of the field, Arizona State is rolling. They will match Utah’s physicality as best they can and continue to improve in every facet of the game. I was high on the Sun Devils coming into 2024, and I’m sticking with it. Also, the desert is a sneaky tough place to play. 

Utah has been less than stellar this year, and you might as well consider Cam Rising a liability at this point. I think this is a dangerous spot for the Utes and the Sun Devils have proved to be far better than expected under Dillingham. I love the Sun Devils here, and I think there is even better value to pick them to win. Cam Skattebo: electric.

While I’ve been high on the Trojans initially, it has become clear there is still an easy way to stop a Lincoln Riley offense: physicality. Whether it’s Minnesota or Michigan this year, Oregon or Notre Dame last year or Utah seemingly every year, Lincoln’s teams can’t handle opponents that are stronger up front. Lucky for him, that fits the description of almost every B1G team. It certainly describes Penn State. While the Drew Allar offense is still questionable at times, the Nittany Lions do everything Michigan and Minnesota do well, but better. This is a horrible matchup for the Trojans. As long as PSU can ward off the jet lag, they should roll.

BIG10 teams are 1-7 in games they’ve had to travel 2+ time zones. I’m not sure if you’ve looked at a map lately, but Pennsylvania is pretty far from California. On the field, USC has been up and down. The offense has big play potential, but the offensive line just hasn’t held up long enough. That’s not good going up against a Penn State DL that is loaded with talent and depth. Offensively, Penn State has a lot left in the tank. Penn State team total over feels like a solid bet, regardless of the travel. 

This is the farthest Penn State has traveled since the Rose Bowl, but James Franklin has this team absolutely rolling. I couldn’t think of a better matchup for them in terms of physicality and coaching. The truthfully three (!) headed monster at RB along with Allar who has been efficient just will be too much for the Trojans to get enough stops. 

This is another easy pick for me. Texas is far and away the best team in the country. Quinn Ewers is back healthy, and OU’s offense is a complete trainwreck. They’ve tried two different QBs, and neither has worked. They absolutely stole a game from a really bad Auburn team. Also, Texas’ defense is #1 in the country in defensive Eckel rate, meaning they limit big, meaningful plays. I don’t love picking a blowout in the Red River Shootout, but these are two teams in very different places.

Every now and again, this game is a blowout. The Longhorns have had a week to scheme up the Sooners' defense, and that could be deadly. Biggest key to the game could be explosive plays. The Sooners offense is #130 in the nation in creating explosive plays, while the Longhorn defense is #1 in the country at stopping them. Yeah, that points big time towards Texas. 

I used to be an anti-Texas bettor, solely because you did not know what team was going to show up on the field. However, Sark has instilled a culture in the program that gives me reason to bet them almost every week. Regardless of Ewers' status, the Longhorns are just a flat-out better squad. This Oklahoma team has squeezed by some below average teams so far, and I am worried about their QB situation.

The Tigers may be 4-1, but this is a team that has not been remotely tested since their week one loss to USC. Their defense is still horrific, and Kiffin’s offenses typically only struggle when they face a truly formidable opponent. This is not that team. While home field advantage will certainly be on LSU’s side, they aren’t getting enough points for me to feel comfortable taking them.

Simply enough, I don’t think the LSU defense can keep the Rebs from scoring 30+. Ole Miss put up 55 in last year’s matchup, and the two rosters are minimally changed on those sides of the ball. LSU may have some new defensive coaches, but this seems like Jimmy and Joe problem, not X and O. LSU has been elite at home over the past 5 seasons (including an undefeated last season in Tiger Stadium), but losses to Georgia and Tennessee in 2022 showed how the crowd can’t do everything. Ole Miss wins and puts themselves back in the SEC title conversation.

While it's hard to win in Death Valley, it is harder to win when your team has zero defensive acumen. This is still a young LSU defense, and Brian Kelly and co. did not do a great job filling gaps in the portal, which has been apparent so far on the defensive side. Ole Miss needs a statement win after laying an egg against Kentucky, and this is their chance. I think Kiffin and his squad roll the Tigers, leaving a lot of questions for what Brian Kelly is able to do in Baton Rouge.

Without a doubt, this is the most important non-SEC game this season. We will learn a lot about what each team is made of. I still believe Oregon is the better team, and they will prove it. Frankly, it would be irresponsible NOT to throw something at their moneyline.

Remember that stat about BIG10 teams traveling 2+ time zones? This is when you play it. The Buckeyes haven’t been tested defensively at all this season, and I don’t like betting on teams that have coasted for 5 whole games. The Ducks haven’t been flawless, but even in their mistake ridden games they’ve dominated competition. The home field + the travel + the regression to the mean for Oregon’s turnovers = Ducks upset win. 

My colleagues have been waiting to bet the Ducks for weeks now, but after what I have seen from Dillon Gabriel, I just cannot get myself to bet them right now. Will Howard hasn’t exactly been lights out either, but the RB combo in TreyVeon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins will be by far the best Oregon has faced this season. I expect Chip Kelly to scheme up a game plan to control the ball and just whittle the Ducks down over the course of the game. I like the Buckeyes here and the under.

Arizona State +190 vs. Utah

Illinois -19.0 vs Purdue

Rutgers -2.5 vs Wisconsin

Oregon +146 vs. Ohio State

Louisville -7.5 @ UVA

Parlay: Georgia Tech -5.5 and o58.5 @ UNC, +237

BYU -4.5 vs Arizona

Louisiana Monroe -6.5 vs Southern Miss

Washington State -3.5 @ Fresno State

UNLV -18.5 @ Utah State

Eastern Michigan ML vs Miami Ohio (+115)

Bama -21.5 vs. South Carolina
BYU -3.5 vs. Arizona
UNLV -18.5 vs Utah State
Kansas State -3.5 @ Colorado
Iowa State -3.0 @ West Virginia
Boise State -20.5 @ Hawaii