Lock$ of Saturday Week Five

You know how I said two weeks ago was an awful week? Well, last week was worse. Way worse. Take a look:

Robert: 28-38, -2.24 units

Brett: 20-30, -9.5 units

Sam: 18-26, -9.8 units

But this means we're due. Trust the process, and let's ride.

This is just a gross game between two Big 12 teams that really let me down last week. However, I have a lot more faith in the Wildcats as I think the book is out on OK State’s offense: sell out on Ollie Gordon and make Bowman beat you with his arm (he won’t). Give me the Cats at home by a TD.

First off, I just want to say that was the worst weekend in betting of my whole life. 0-10. That’s hard to do, so do with my picks as you will. Anyway! Like Irby said, both teams left a lot to be desired last week, but I feel better about the OKST outcome than I did the Kansas State beatdown. Go Pokes!

Shockingly, the Cowboys haven’t been able to run the football this year. Ollie Gordon has been virtually inconsequential to this offense, and no one else has really stepped up in his place. On the flip side, the Wildcats return home after being blitzed in Provo last weekend. I like K-State to bounce back at home vs an OK State team that hasn’t found their footing yet. 

The Cardinals are here, and they are quietly right in the thick of the CFP race. This team is loaded on both sides of the ball, and it seems like they are the one ACC team whose massive portal class is actually working out. Do I trust Tyler Shough? Not even remotely, but I think they will be more physical than ND as they make themselves known as a real ACC contender.

Simply put, the Notre Dame offense is in shambles with Riley Leonard at the helm. Louisville is a big football team, which ND usually has the advantage on as the bigger team themselves. This is a well-coached Louisville squad and with the many questions at QB, I like the Cards here at least covering, potentially sneaking out a win.

Notre Dame historically is great at home, but I don’t love this matchup for the Irish. Louisville has found some more playmakers on offense and defensively will be strong enough to give Riley Leonard some issues. The key will be on 3rd/4th downs, where the Irish are converting just 35.8% of the time. The Cardinals defense has been stellar, only allowing a 30.0% conversion rate on 3rd/4th downs. I think Louisville’s defense gets off the field quickly, wins the field position battle, and brings a jolt of life to a desperate ACC.

There’s a lot more than meets the eye with this Illinois offense led by Luke Altmyer. He has been extremely efficient with the football (0 INTs, 71.4% completions, 8.2 Y/A). This ain’t your momma’s “score 17 and pray the opponent only scores 16” Illinois team. Talent will win out with Penn State, but the Illini are getting far too many points here. 

This is a huge number for a Brett Bielema team that just ended any sort of hype in Lincoln. We all know that James Franklin loves covering a spread, but the truth of the matter is that this Illinois team is no pushover. Penn State can easily win this game by 17 and feel like they dominated, but the Fightin’ Illini will keep it within the number and make it uncomfortable in State College.

The Illini are no strangers to big games this season, as they’ve won games against two ranked teams already. The improvement of Luke Altmeyer at QB has been great to watch, as he seems to fit that offensive system perfectly. Penn State has taken care of business this season, but still, they lack the big play threat that points to them covering such a large spread against a good football team. 

I can’t believe I’m writing this. The Jalen Milroe Game is about to unfold before us. While things looked rough in moments in the USF game, DeBoer has figured out how to unlock Milroe and make him into a highly efficient passer. Much like Altmyer, Milroe has yet to throw a pick this year, and his 11.3 Y/A is staggering. Additionally, Milroe has taken far fewer sacks. He’s been taken down behind the line 5 times in 3 games so far (1.67 per game) compared to 44 times in 13 games last year (3.38 per game). DeBoer has proven once again that he is both a winner and an offensive mastermind. The Dawgs are struggling on offense, and they just won’t be able to keep up on the road. Give me the Tide outright.

I think folks are looking at that Kentucky game a little too hard for the Bulldogs. There is a saying that Coach Mike Krzyzewski would say: “Great teams find ways to win, no matter how bad it gets.” I think Alabama is a really good football team, but I think the Bulldogs are yet again a GREAT football team. I like Carson Beck more than I do Milroe, and I sure as heck like Kirby Smart more than Kalen DeBoer here. This is my lock of the week. 

I’m a bit worried about Georgia’s offense. The line can’t be leaned on as heavily as in previous years, and it doesn’t look like the skill position players are quite the same as they have been. I also really like Kalen DeBoer off a bye week. Bama will be ready with some wacky stuff. 

I’m pretty torn on this one as I do believe in the one-man-show in Pullman with John Mateer, but the Broncos are talented and fresh off a bye. Wazzu had to grind it out last week in 2OT against San Jose State. Plus, it is hard to bet against Boise State at home. I’ll make them my official pick, but this might be a line I try to tease down to -5.5 or so.

The Cougars have surprised a lot of folks this year starting the season 4-0, but they sure have scraped by in a couple wins now. Of course, the difference maker in this game is Ashton Jeanty who is a dark horse in the Heisman race. I think the home field advantage and having the best player on the field by far will give the Broncos enough to win by more than a score. 

This game is going to be bonkers. Take the points. Both offenses are electric, and both defenses have clear flaws. If you don’t know who Washington State QB John Mateer is, you should find out. Winner of this game is in position to be in the playoffs…the loser is virtually out of it. 

I can’t quit these Hokies no matter how hard I try. My relationship with Virginia Tech football is the most toxic one in my life. Yet here I am, back at the circus getting ready to put my makeup and big red nose on again. 

I haven’t hit on the Hokies betting for or against them, so I am just going to leave it at this: they have given me zero reason to believe they can keep it within three scores, and Cam Ward has solidified that. I will be happy to be wrong. 

There is nothing I’ve seen in the first 4 weeks of the season that would point to the Hokies keeping this game remotely respectable…which is why it will happen. If there’s one thing I’d look at in Tech’s favor, it’s that they have nothing to lose. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Hokies throw the kitchen sink at the Canes early in this one, and then just try to milk the clock a bit. I also think the Hokies have the defensive backs that can at least hang with Miami’s wideouts. Not shut them down, but there will be more resistance than what has been seen so far. End of the day, I fully expect Miami to reign supreme on the night and have ESPN commentators basically wearing green and orange. However, 20 is a lot of points in a conference game off a short week. And the Hokies are, truthfully, only a couple plays away from being 4-0.

Rutgers -2.5 vs Washington

Indiana -7.0 vs Maryland

Ole Miss -17.5 vs Kentucky

Texas State -8.0 @ Sam Houston

Oklahoma -2.0 @ Auburn

Clemson -22.0 vs Stanford

SMU -6.0 vs Florida State

Wazzu/Boise o63.0

Charlotte/Rice u47.0

Fresno State/UNLV u48.5

Arkansas/Texas A&M u52.5

Duke -2.5 vs. UNC

Ole Miss -17.0 vs. UK

Oklahoma -2 @ Auburn

Texas State -8.0 @ Sam Houston

Minn/Michigan u35.5 (there might be 25 passes thrown between both teams)

Navy -3.5 @ UAB

Nebraska -9.5 @ Purdue

BYU +3.5 @ Baylor

BC -12.5 vs Western Kentucky

FIU ML vs La Tech +120