Lock$ of Saturday Week Four

Survive and advance.

Robert: 23-26, +4.92

Brett: 20-20, +0.5 units

Sam: 13-20, -8.3 units

It wasn't a great week for the fellas. We know. Flush it. Let's move on and make some coin.

This Nebraska program finally has some juice with Rhule and Raiola, and I’m dubious of Illinois. A night game in Lincoln? Don’t bet against the Cornhuskers. They’re 3-0 ATS in home night games all time under Rhule (including two this year already).

Is Nebraska #back? Sure seems like it with the "Rhuiloa" era. Nebraska handled a much more talented (maybe not as well-coached) team in Colorado with ease. This game being at home, I have no problem laying the points with the Cornhuskers. 

Are the vaunted Black Shirts back? They certainly hope so in Lincoln. I think the step up in competition, particularly with Nebraska’s defensive line, will be a tough task for the Illini. I also think this is a massive Raiola coming-out party. He may not be polished just yet, but there’s a reason this kid was a coveted 5 star QB. He’s been getting the ball out very quickly, which will suit him well against an Illinois defense that relies on turnovers. 

Let’s call a spade a spade: Michigan is a painfully average team at best. If you slapped Minnesota or Illinois uniforms on this team, I’d wonder if they could even reach seven wins. USC is a legit playoff contender and has been stellar against the run so far. Alex Orji will have to make throws to keep them in it. Good luck with that.

Michigan is in trouble and it stems completely from the QB position. They would rather not throw the ball at all moving back to Alex Orji under center after an awful showing last week from Davis Warren. It seems like USC is…better after losing Caleb Williams? I really like the improvements on defense from USC and I think Moss with the other offensive weapons can win this game by a score at the big house.

What does a bad game for this USC offense look like? 27 points? Probably. Can Michigan score 27 vs a good defense? Probably not. I think this looks similar to the Texas game, where the athletes on the outside are too much for Michigan. I also like USC’s team total over. Michigan’s defense has talent, but not the same amount of dawg in them as in previous seasons. 

I can certainly see this one going either way, but Utah looked rough last week against Utah State. While Cam Rising is expected to be back, you can never say for certain with him. He might step on a pebble on his way into the stadium and miss three more games. Ollie Gordon is the best player on the field, and the Utes let a much less talented RB run wild on them last week.

I think I am ready to be out on the Cam Rising hype. He was obviously rested last week against a REALLY bad Utah State team, but the rest of the team looked lethargic and not like a typical Kyle Whittingham squad. On the other side, there is some magic with the Pokes this season. Their biggest question was with veteran Alan Bowman, who has left a lot to be desired the past few years but has honestly impressed the nation so far with his play. OKST was my dark horse for the B12 and if they pull this off, I think they will be in the driver's seat already. Pokes ML is where the value sits.

Oklahoma State has not been good defensively. They gave up almost 700 yards to Arkansas in a game that they should’ve lost. Meanwhile, Utah has their own issues but not as pronounced. As for OK State star RB Ollie Gordon, he’s been relatively quiet this season. He’s outside the top 100 in yards per carry and has only 1 run of over 20 yards this season. Give me Utah.

This might be my favorite game of the year so far. We have one of the brightest offensive minds in the sport in Josh Heupel traveling to his alma mater to take on one of the best defensive minds in Brent Venables, who also happened to coach him. This will be an X’s and O’s masterclass. My gut tells me to lean towards another home underdog here. I think the road environment and Venables’ coaching will make it tough for Iamaleava to get comfortable in his first true test.

UTK has looked absolutely stellar so far this season but against fairly poor competition, and this will be their first test. Oklahoma has been a mystery under Venables, almost a Jekyll and Hyde team. Whichever character is the one that means Sooner victory, that is the one they will be this weekend. Nico has future Heisman written all over him, but I don’t think he will be able to pull it off in Norman against a stout defense. Gimme the Sooners ML here as well. 

This is a scary bet, but I’m going with the big-picture play. Freshman QB playing his first true road game in Norman vs the best Sooners defense in years? Yeah, I don’t know about that. Oklahoma has had some problems, particularly on the offensive line. But they should be a bit healthier this week. It’s going to be an awesome game at a great venue between two really solid teams. Give me the points. 

This is a trendy upset pick, and for good reason. The Cougars are as tough to play as anyone on the road at night, and they’re off to a great start at 3-0. However, the Wildcats really impressed me last week, and I believe they are the class of the Big 12. BYU will give them hell (or as they say in Provo, "heck") early, but talent will win out here as Kansas State takes it by 7+.

You know what they say…you don’t go into Provo at night and come away with a win. However, we are forgetting this is not a great BYU team, at all. They beat a fraudulent SMU team and it wasn’t pretty. Kansas State just has too much talent and is far better coached to win this game by less than a score.

You don’t walk into Provo, Utah at night and come out happy. The elevation + crowd noise + a much improved Cougar defense will be the toughest test Kansas State has faced this season. I sense an upset in the shadows of the Wasatch Mountains. 

While morale is certainly a lot higher in Piscataway after their 2-0 start against some JV teams, I love this matchup for the Hokies. The havoc they were able to wreak against ODU last week is the exact type of tenacity this defense can play with against another questionable-at-best passer in Athan Kaliakmanis. Monongai is a monster, but the Hokies remember what he did to them last year, and priority #1 will be to make sure he doesn’t do it again. Then the secondary can pin their ears back and capitalize on Kaliakmanis’ mistakes. I like the Hokies to take this one by 10.  

Field goal favorite at home basically means a toss-up in my eyes, but I think the Hokies are slowly turning a corner. Quite literally, all the Hokies have to do is stop Kyle Monangai. They almost have zero passing ability and play old-school smash-mouth football, the Greg Schiano way. I also think the Hokies are a little more seasoned playing three games against opponents with a pulse. Rutgers has played FCS team Howard and a bad Akron team, neither of which was a true eye test to see Rutgers’ ability. I like the Hokies here by a touchdown.

Taking off my orange and maroon glasses for a second….I really don’t like betting teams that have played cupcakes to start the season. There’s too much unknown internally and guys haven’t been physically tested. While the Hokies have gotten better each week, Rutgers has been just rolling through some of the worst competition possible. And while the Hokies may be a bit more bruised, it’s the Scarlet Knights that have injury concerns on the defensive side of the football. I think it’s a really good spot for the Hokies playing at home to get a big win. 

Appalachian State -7.5 vs South Alabama

Washington State -13.5 vs San Jose State

Clemson -20.5 vs NC State

JMU +10.5 @ UNC

Indiana -28.0 vs Charlotte

Arkansas ML +124 @ Auburn

ECU +6.0 @ Liberty

USF +16.5 vs Miami

Cal ML +114 @ Florida State

Jaydn Ott to go (see what I did there?) into the end zone @ Florida State +110

Ole Miss -35.0 vs Georgia Southern

Iowa/Minnesota u36

USF +16.5 vs. Miami

App State -8 vs. South Alabama

Wazzu -13.5 vs. San Jose State

Boston College -6.5 vs Michigan State 

Cal vs Florida State U45.0

Indiana -28.0 vs Charlotte

Mississippi State ML +185

Tennessee vs Oklahoma U59.5