Lock$ of Saturday: Week Two

Well folks, week one is in the books. While it was a week for some ACC teams cough VT cough Florida State, the fellas came out with some decent returns on their bets.

Let's take a look at how we've done so far and what your net return would be if you rode with each of us:

Robert: 8-6, +3.72 units

Brett: 7-6, +1.3 units

Sam: 4-7, -3.4 units

With that in mind, we turn the page to Week Two.

I’ll keep this one simple. Texas is just a vastly superior team. Davis Warren was ok for Michigan at QB last week, but he also didn’t get any help from his weapons. Colston Loveland is a fantastic tight end, but the WR talent just isn’t good enough to keep up with this Texas offense that can score points on anyone. This will get ugly early.

It is hard to go against Michigan at the Big House, but this will be one of the only offenses that will test Michigan’s defense. Michigan’s offense outside of Donovan Edwards leaves a lot to be desired, so I just don’t think they will be able to keep up scoring the ball. Let Texas get a couple stops early, and it will be hard to get back to under one score.

I don’t love that this line is over a touchdown, so if you’re betting on it, I’d recommend spending up to push the line down to 6.5. That being said, I don’t think Michigan is ready for this game. Texas has the kind of offense that is destined to score 28+ in every game regardless of opposing defense. I’m not sure Michigan can keep up with that kind of pace. 

These are two teams that entered the season with playoff aspirations and came out pretty slow to start. This line has been moving around as it started with the Roadrunners favored by 1.5, shifted all the way to having them as a 2.5 road puppy and now has settled at +1.0. Safe to say this is a tough game to get a read on. I’ll lean on the coach that has been in these games before in Jeff Traylor.

Well, I have to stick to my guns here out of principle. The Bobcats looked awful last week against a mediocre FCS Lamar team, but that won’t keep me from betting them at home in the HEB I-35 rivalry. Last week for the Bobcats they simply let off the gas after being up 21-0, but I don’t expect that this week. UTSA limped away from newly promoted Kennesaw State as well, so not exactly the dominant UTSA team people thought either. I think the skill positions along with a better QB in McCloud will be the difference down the stretch, especially at home to kick off a great campaign in San Marcos.

Neither of these teams played a very tough opponent to start the season (UTSA beat Kennesaw State, Texas State beat Lamar) and neither looked wildly impressive. I think this game being in San Marcos really helps the Bobcats, and I like their offensive weapons a bit more than UTSA’s. It will be a great game, but give me the Bobcats to cover in a close one.

Get ready to learn Nico, buddy. Iamaleava is for real, and I don’t think NC State’s defense is stout enough to limit this Tennessee offense. Unless Grayson McCall plays drastically better than he did last week, the Pack’s offense will lag behind, too. By the way, Nico’s o/u for pass yards this season is currently 2750.5, meaning he only has to average 221.5 yards in his next 11 games. HAMMER THE OVER.

This line is baffling to me, and that is honestly what scares me about it. NC State squeaked by Western Carolina while Tennessee could have put up 100 on Chattanooga, who is in WCU’s conference. If you want my honest opinion, I think people are WAY too high on the Wolfpack. McCall has not really been good since his first year with Chadwell at CCU in a totally systematic offense. On the other side of the ball... the Volunteers have found a QB in Nico Iamaleava that could lead them to the promised land. The way Coach Heupel and his offensive staff are able the scheme guys open is pretty unprecedented as I expect this to be a blowout for my lock of the week.

Nico and this Volunteer offense has all the tools that the 2022 team had. I’m not sure NC State is ready to compete with that. The Wolfpack gave up a successful play (Expected Points Added > 0) on 45% of pass plays against Western Carolina. That won’t work on Saturday. Vols might put up 35+.

Since that fateful day in Ann Arbor that sent legendary Michigan coach Lloyd Carr’s final season into a tailspin, the Mountaineers are known for being one thing: Giant Killers. This is a team with very legitimate playoff hopes, and they have every opportunity to plant their flag in the ground here. Dabo Swinney has never started a season 0-2. To find the last season Clemson started that way, you have to go all the way back to 1975; a season in which the Tigers finished 2-9. Clemson is certainly not that bad of a team, but with how lethargic their offense looked once again without a true explosive playmaker, I have no reason to believe App State can’t give them a run for their money. 

Who knows what Einstein’s definition of insanity is? The process of doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result. That is exactly what is going on in Clemson, South Carolina right now. Did they play a powerhouse in UGA last week, yes, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the offense looks like it shouldn’t belong in FBS football. Absolutely zero weapons because Dabo refuses to bring in help and a QB who struggles to see the field is a recipe for disaster. I love App State here in their Super Bowl this season, keeping the game low scoring and within a couple scores.

Serious question: How many points can we expect Clemson to score against a good defense? With all cylinders firing, we’re looking at 31 points. App State has enough on offense to grab a couple touchdowns, so 31-14 covers this number.

In my opinion, this line is a bit too reactionary to Oregon’s ugly 24-14 win over Idaho, which is one of the most inexplicable game results I have ever seen. Dillon Gabriel set the school record for completions in a game, but the team only beat an FCS school by 10. The Sickos Committee aptly described this game as "cooked spinach." Make no mistake, this is still one of the best teams in the country. I see that game as a fluke, and Boise’s defense looked pretty porous against Georgia Southern. I expect the Ducks to get up on them early, forcing the Broncos to throw more than they’d like in order to keep up and, most importantly, keep the ball out of Ashton Jeanty’s hands.

While Oregon did not look like the top 3 team we expected last week, I think they were just caught sleepwalking at home. This line is more of a hindrance on Boise State’s defense, who we all thought would have improved. If you take Ashton Jeanty out of Boise, that might be a seven-win squad. Oregon is going to come much more prepared for this one, and if Boise can’t stop a nosebleed, this could get ugly QUICK.

20 is a disgustingly large number for this game, and I’ve been a proponent of Boise State all offseason. But that Bronco defense hasn’t shown that they can stop a nosebleed. The scoreline may not have been pretty for the Ducks against FCS power Idaho, but don’t let that cloud your judgment here. Oregon is a national title caliber team playing at home against a defense that has given up 30+ points in 7 of their last 14 games, including 56 to Washington to start last year. 

No other way to put it, the Hokies were flat out humiliated on Saturday. If you were to believe this season is already over one game in, I wouldn’t blame you. We see it all the time. But for all their shortcomings, this is a team that seems to have strong continuity and perseverance. It is telling that they were able to spot 17 points to an inferior opponent and counter with a 27-3 run (they may have just exhausted themselves doing so). Brent Pry has mastered the art of gleaning a major performance from his team after a loss. Dating back to last season, the Hokies are 4-0 with an average win margin of 24.5 in their last 4 games immediately following a loss. Everyone’s backs are against the wall. This is the quintessential “get right” game. It has to be.

Cracks open a fresh bottle of liquor, here we go again. I sat in silence for a good 15 minutes after watching what transpired last Saturday in Nashville and wondered if this is all worth doing again for another season. I have absolutely no reason to believe the Hokies can win by three scores, but in reality, they do not have a choice. If the Hokies want to save face at all this season, they will need to beat the brakes off the next three opponents before heading to Coral Gables. It sucks to feel this way, but Pry has been good when his back is against the wall along with his staff, and we are already here in week two.

After what I watched last weekend, I refuse to pick the Hokies to cover the spread. Under Brent Pry, the Hokies are 3-7 ATS in the month of September (and yes, I know the Vandy game was technically in August). 

Alabama -30.5 vs. South Florida

Old Dominion +100 vs. ECU

Kentucky -10.0 vs. South Carolina

Parlay: Iowa State ML + u35.5 @ Iowa, +265

GT -2.5 @ Syracuse

Parlay: Oklahoma State -7.5 + o59.5 vs. Arkansas, +242

Kansas State -9.5 @ Tulane

SMU -10.5 vs. BYU

Louisville -27.5 vs. Jax State

Nebraska -7.5 vs. Colorado

Cal +375 @ Auburn

App State/Clemson u53.5

SCAR/UK u42.5

FAU -4 vs. Army

Iowa/Iowa State u35 (also have .6u on alternate u28.5)

Cal +13 @ Auburn

OKST -7.5 vs Arkansas

Cuse +2.5 vs GT

Tulane +9.5 vs. Kansas State

SMU -11.5 vs. BYU

Clemson/App State U53.5

Texas Tech/Washington State O66

Nebraska/Colorado O59