Lock$ of Saturday: Preseason Win Totals

Sometimes, to go forward, you have to go back.

That's right, folks. We here at the Lock$ of Saturday (Sam Jessee, Brett Smith, Robert Irby) are getting back to our roots and putting out an article every week with our favorite CFB bets. Our goal: to make you (and ourselves) a little money. We hope you will trust us to give you some W's this season.

With the start of the season still a couple of weeks away, we are going to start with some future bets. First up: Team Win Total O/U's.

Each of us worked hard to put together our Three Definite Overs, Three Definite Unders and Biggest Disappointment and Overachiever. We also sprinkled a little Hokie analysis in there to bet on if you aren't located in Virginia.

We're looking forward to an awesome season!

GJ Kinne and the Bobcats burst on the scene last year in his first year as head coach with an 8-5 record at a historically poor Sun Belt program. This year, San Marcos may be the best place to watch Texas football. This team only got better, bringing in Jordan McCloud from JMU at QB and returning 18 starters. They also have one of the best unknown backs in the country with Ismail Madhi. I expect them to clean up at home with a favorable schedule even against Arizona State, who I truly believe the Bobcats are better than. I know this isn't the futures article, but I would find that playoff future immediately. This could very well be the best G5 team in CFB, and GJ Kinne’s next stop is P4 football.

If you can still grab the Pokes at 8.0, drop what you’re doing and place that bet now. Lots of newcomers to the B12 this year, but that doesn’t change the fact that Mike Gundy is due for another 9+ win season. Last year, OKST struggled early to find an identity, and after a brutal loss at home to South Alabama (who turned out to be pretty good), people were calling for Gundy’s head. They finished 8-2 to end the season, and an absolute star emerged in Ollie Gordon II who rushed for 1732 yards and had 21(!!!) touchdowns. With 19 returning starters, including an OL that has a combined 214 starts, this team is veteran. They also have a favorable schedule, with Kansas State as the only B12 “contender” on their schedule away. They do have the B12 favorite, Utah, at home, but we all know what happens in Boone-Pickens at night…I like the Pokes there regardless. If they split those games 1-1, 9+ wins is extremely achievable. 

The Fightin' Tom Herman’s! While I usually lean on veteran teams hitting overs, this is a completely new squad with nine transfers on defense and a new QB in Cam Fancher. While Fancher was literally bullied out of Marshall, a clean slate for him has made strides as many in Boca are excited for what he has shown already. The Owls lost 4 games by one score or less last year, so their record was not as bad as it seemed and this year, they have the third easiest schedule in college football! To me, their only definite losses are @ Michigan State and @ UTSA. They get USF at home, and the rest of their schedule includes the bottom 25 teams in college football. Also, Tom Herman knows he needs to make a move to revive his career. HOOT HOOT!

The elephant in the room when talking about Arizona is their coaching situation as Jedd Fisch left for the Washington job following a 10-3 season, being replaced by San Jose State’s Brent Brennan. However, the heart and soul of that team - the passing attack of QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan - is back and ready to build off their hot finish. Despite not taking the starting job until Week 5 last year, Fifita finished with 2869 yards and 25 TDs with only 6 INTs and a 72.4 completion percentage while winning each of his final seven starts. McMillan had 1402 yards and 10 TDs, and he could possibly vault himself into being the first WR taken off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft. At 6’5 210 lbs., McMillan is a behemoth that is impossible for college defenses to cover, and he has great speed to pair with his size. And there’s just something about a 5’10 QB slinging it to a WR half a foot taller than him that screams “college football.” Think a West Coast version of Johnny Manziel and Mike Evans. Arizona does have some tough road games, traveling to Kansas State, Utah, BYU, UCF and TCU, but they should be favored in all seven of their home games, meaning they likely will only need 1-2 road wins to hit this over.

In 10 seasons since joining the FBS, App State has won less than eight games only twice. I don’t see that changing this year. QB Joey Aguilar is back after throwing over 3700 yards last season, and so is his favorite target, WR Kaedin Robinson. Overall, the team is returning 63% of its production per SP+, meaning there will be some continuity with this team that won eight games last year. Speaking of continuity, one of the biggest obstacles for the Mountaineers in the last decade has been its revolving door of head coaches. But Shawn Clark is entering his fifth season, and he is continuing to build this program up with his guys. Add on the fact that App is favored to win the Sun Belt, and I just don’t think there is much of a path for them to only win seven or fewer games. At worst, this should be a push. The SBC East is weaker than normal with JMU, Marshall and Coastal Carolina not up to their usual standards, and I see the Mountaineers pretty easily hitting 9+ and making a real run at the last CFP automatic qualifier. Keep an eye on the spread in that Week 2 matchup in Death Valley against Clemson, too.

I love this bet not just because of the win total, but the payout too. You can get SMU o8.5 at +120 right now, and while that suggests the models strongly forecast them at less than nine wins, I think this is a team poised to break through that projection. Preston Stone has a very real case as the best QB in the ACC. RJ Maryland is the type of TE that college defenses struggle to contain, and he could garner some All-American buzz. RB Jaylan Knighton is shifty and could be looking for some redemption in his final season, getting back in the ACC following a so-so tenure at Miami. Head coach Rhett Lashlee brought in tons of P4 transfers. The most crucial stretch of SMU’s schedule will be in a three-week run midseason where they face TCU, Florida State and Louisville. But two of those games are at home, and I expect SMU to be favored in the rest of their games. They manage to avoid facing other ACC contenders in Clemson, VT, NC State and Miami. Just saying, you can also find them anywhere between +1000 and +1200 to win the ACC…

Sometimes it's best to just go with what works, and for the past 3 seasons that has meant betting on the Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs have reached at least 11-1 in each of the past 5 seasons with no sign of slowing down. The key has been twofold: their players are better than your players, and their coaches are better than your coaches. That’s a lethal combo. This season, the Bulldogs arguably have the best QB, OL, defensive front 7, and head coach in the sport. Add onto that a slew of blue-chip recruits at the skill positions. The only downside is that this is one of the tougher schedules that the Bulldogs have faced in the past decade. However, without Nick Saban on the other sideline, I’m banking on the Dawgs to continue their dominance. 

There’s a simple formula to winning in college football as a non-blue blood: Experience, solid QB, defensive depth. All of that can be found in Ames. No one in the country returns more productive experience than the Cyclones, who turned a corner after a tough start last season. The Cyclones also have a relatively favorable schedule in 2024. It’s not unreasonable to say that if the Cyclones can beat an Iowa team in week 2 that has yet to determine its QB, they could start 8-0 heading into their road trip to Kansas. Iowa State also gets Kansas State at home to end the season, a team they demolished last year. Ten wins is not out of the question.

The reigning MAC champs are deep, old and hopefully healthy at quarterback. They’re the preseason favorite in the MAC and should coast through much of the league. With perennial contenders Toledo reloading, I see Miami as a clear favorite in every conference game. The non-conference is tricky with games against Cincinnati (at home), Northwestern and Notre Dame. But the Redhawks won at Cincy last season and Northwestern is a very winnable game, so 2-2 in non-conference should be expected. Also, in 8 of the last 11 seasons at least 1 team in the MAC has finished with 9 wins, and in 8 of those a team had 10 wins. I expect the Redhawks to continue that trend. 

Look, this may look like a total homer pick, but I seriously have a hard time seeing this team get to five wins. They improved in the skill positions, but the defense has a ton of question marks outside of Jonas Sanker (who is an absolute stud). The biggest concern is just purely their schedule. They play three of the top five ACC teams, away at ND, away at a frisky Coastal Carolina team, and then a Maryland team that needs to win early to have a chance at a bowl. Even the Richmond game to open the year will be tough! They will have to split 2-2 in those first four games to have a chance at five wins this year. They seem to be running with Tony Muskett again at the helm, but I think Anthony Colandrea gives them a better shot to get to the number as he offers much more with his legs and athleticism. I would not be surprised to see a switch at QB if the first four games go south.

I teetered between Auburn and Kentucky to put in this slot, but after looking at schedules and then the coaches, I went with the Tigers. Hugh Freeze is no doubt Alabama’s kryptonite, but that loss last year felt different in the fact I am not sure he will ever get Auburn where they need to be. They do return Payton Thorne at QB, but that offense last year was absolutely abysmal. They could easily start the season 3-0 but have a tough stretch in the middle of the season with Arkansas, Oklahoma, @ UGA, @ Mizzou, and @ Kentucky. They close out the season with TAMU and then head to Tuscaloosa, which both will be tough games. I think seven is the correct number here as there are just too many toss up games with a team that has not proven much to me. 

Is this the year that breaks the camel's back for Shane Beamer and South Carolina? With the win total already so low, putting that word out in the world isn’t far off base. On top of an already tough schedule, the Gamecocks have some question marks in big positions. Most notably, the quarterback situation has fans extremely concerned in Columbia. They are looking at a redshirt freshman (with zero experience) in LaNoris Sellers Jr. or journeyman Robbie Ashford, and both options leave a lot to be desired. While they do have some great receivers in Nyck Harbor and two transfers in Gage Larvadain and Jared Brown, Beamer not getting a quality QB in the transfer portal was a huge miss. On top of that, their schedule does no favors with Ole Miss, @ Alabama, LSU, @ Oklahoma, Mizzou, TAMU, and @ Clemson. I have a hard time seeing them win any of those outside of TAMU which then comes down to beating Kentucky in Lexington. Shane will need some Beamerball (crediting this to HIS FATHER) magic this year to hit the over.

The Seminoles have largely been one of the toughest teams to get a read on this offseason with numerous departures counteracted by the #1 portal class in the ACC, but I believe I have finally cracked code. This is a 9-win team, at most. There are two reasons I believe this: QB and schedule. Let’s start with the QB. DJ Uiagalelei is back in the ACC after a revival year at Oregon State. His stats certainly weren’t bad there (2638 yards, 21 TDs, 7 INTs), but what he was asked to do was akin to Trent Dilfer with the 2000 Ravens: hand the ball off, run play action, don’t screw it up. What he will be asked to do at FSU won’t be as pressure-packed as the “go out there and make something special happen” offense he was squeezed into at Clemson, but it won’t be as simple as what he did in Corvallis, either. Looking back at OSU’s season, there were numerous instances where their offense - particularly DJU - fell short in losses. DJU is a great QB to have when you’re up 14, but if you’re down 14? Don’t get your hopes up. Ask any FSU fan that follows recruiting closely, and they’ll admit they really wanted Cam Ward (or they’ll be too stubborn; it is FSU). The Noles have one of the tougher schedules in the ACC, and they will also have a huge target on their back as the defending champs. The cheapest tickets for their road game at SMU on Sept. 28 are $173 per ESPN. The fans are going to pack that stadium. Add in other road trips to Miami and Notre Dame plus tough home games against Clemson, Florida and sneaky CFP contender Memphis, and getting 10 wins seems like a tough ask. Not to mention a Week 0 game against GT in Ireland that could get spooky, quick.  

If you ride with me on this bet, you’ll probably wake up in mid-October and see the Terps are 4-2, maybe better. But trust me! Hold the line. Things will only go South for them. Their final six games are about as brutal as it gets: vs. USC, @ Minnesota, @ Oregon, vs. Rutgers, vs. Iowa, @ Penn State. Sheesh. I expect them to be underdogs in at least five of these games, possibly all six. Mike Locksley is definitely on the hot seat as the on-field play hasn’t matched his strong recruiting, and the wheels could fall off here quickly. Replacing Taulia Tagovailoa at QB is no easy task, and there is still a three-man competition for the job. NC State transfer MJ Morris is the most likely candidate, and while he showed flashes at times, I don’t see him being able to carry the load and cover up the other holes in this roster the way Taulia could. 

Another plus-money line I love. Coach Prime did a good job bringing in portal talent to help what was the team’s glaring weakness last year: the trenches. And while I do believe QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter are both first round talents, there are too many cultural questions for me to think the Buffaloes can grow into a bowl team after losing eight of their last nine games last year. Especially with this schedule. The Buffs definitely got the short end of the stick in the new Big 12 schedule, facing all five of the conference’s pre-season ranked teams: #18 Kansas State, #21 Arizona, #12 Utah, #22 Kansas and #17 Oklahoma State. They start the year with North Dakota State (FCS #2) and road trips to Nebraska (who should be better with Dylan Raiola at QB) and Colorado State (who gave them absolute hell last year). There will also be tough road games against Texas Tech and UCF. Folks, this is a gauntlet. The team did not exactly handle adversity well last year, and I don’t expect them to this year, either. 

Love him or hate him, you have to respect the job Pat Narduzzi has done at Pitt. However, it’s probably time for a change. Pitt went 3-9 last season and looked horrid in many of its games. For a program that is based on development, the Panthers will need a ton of young guys to step up in 2024. I have the Panthers as having the 100th most returning production in the country. Considering their level of mediocre recruiting and coming out net negative from the transfer portal, I’m not sure how much better Pitt can be. The OL should improve with better health, but almost every position on this team is lacking talent. With non-conference games vs Cincinnati and WVU as well as FCS top 20 Youngstown State, I could see the bottom falling out pretty quickly. Pitt also has road trips to SMU and Louisville and has to host Clemson. I don’t see a path for this team to make a bowl game. 

No one talks about the MAC, which is why you probably didn’t hear that Ohio lost 14 players to the transfer portal with a whopping 12 of them landing at Power 4 schools, including QB Kurtis Rourke. To replace that? The Bobcats brought in four…from a depth conversation, the Bobcats are in hell. Non-conference games against Syracuse, South Alabama, and Kentucky means that Ohio would need to go 6-2 in conference to hit the 7-win mark. With road games at Toledo and the aforementioned Miami (OH) on the schedule, I don’t think that’s possible. For me, this is my second biggest win total lock of the season.

It brings me no joy to be the harbinger of Wake Forest’s demise, yet the Lord calls us all to do His work. Let me dispel some myths about Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons have not gone above .500 in ACC play in 7 of Dave Clawson’s 8 years as coach. In 3 of the past 4 seasons, the Demon Deacons have gone under .500 in ACC play. This season, Wake Forest will have to play not only the usual matchups vs NC State and Clemson, but also Miami as well as preseason top 10 Ole Miss. The “winnable” games that Wake Forest has historically capitalized on mostly come on the road this season on the form of road trips to Stanford and UConn. Throw in games against UNC, Cal, and a pretty decent Louisiana team, and I’m not sure there are more than 3 wins on this schedule. The roster has simply not kept up with the times. At QB, Wake will turn to Hank Bachmeier who has been benched at both Boise State and Louisiana Tech. Bachmeier may be able to steady the ship, but the lack of transfers and lower tier recruiting have caught up everywhere else. 

A lot of analysts and fans are high on Syracuse already with Fran Brown at the helm, and while I think he is a great hire, 8+ wins in his first year is quite a lofty goal. But…but they brought in the starting Ohio State QB! Yeah, they sure did, and it wasn't because he didn't like OSU. McCord literally was pushed out of Columbus. I don’t think McCord is a bad QB, but I have my doubts with him not surrounded by the likes of Treyveon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka, and an NFL caliber offensive line. Do I think this is a bad football team? Absolutely not. They travel across the country twice to UNLV and Cal, toss up games against GT, and @ BC, and what I’d consider losses against VT, Miami, and @ NCST. There will be plenty of close games for this squad, but with a brand-new staff and new roster, no continuity will hurt them down the stretch.

Tigers head coach Brian Kelly had his work cut out for him this offseason, needing to bulk up one of the worst defenses in the SEC and a lackluster running game while replacing a Heisman QB and two first round WRs. So, what did he do? Not much. LSU brought in a handful of transfers, including two talented WRs in CJ Daniels and Zavion Thomas, but they still only finished as the SEC’s 14th-ranked portal class by 247. Frankly, the AP ranking them 13th is laughable. This will be a long year in Death Valley. Their defense still stinks, they can’t run the ball and QB Garrett Nussmeier is in his fourth year with the program without catching any sort of footing. This is a team I will happily fade all year long. 

Mike Norvell has done well to manage his roster over the past 3 seasons, but the loss of talent to the NFL is bound to show itself early in the season. I feel pretty good taking Georgia Tech to keep it within 2 touchdowns in the opener, and I’d expect a high flying offense like Memphis to do the same. If Florida State finished the season with only 4 wins against the spread, I wouldn’t be surprised. 

Remember when Matt Campbell almost fought a fan last year at Ohio? Yes, hilarious. Did Matt Campbell extend his stay too long in Ames? Maybe. Are the Iowa State Cyclones winning 8+ games this year? For sure. After a heck of a turnaround last year, Matt Campbell was steadfast in keeping this team together knowing what 2024 could bring, and college football fans are starting to notice. They return 19 (!) starters, including an emerging star quarterback in Rocco Becht. They have an extremely favorable schedule, especially early in the year, and the Cyclones could very well be undefeated heading into Texas Tech homecoming weekend. They have some tough ones to end the season with @ Kansas, @ Utah, then close with KState at home. If they can win one of those games, the Cyclones have 9+ wins locked up.

There’s a reason I put GT in this section and not the overs. As much as I love this team, they have one of - if not the hardest - schedules in the nation. Florida State, VT, Louisville, Notre Dame, VT, NC State, Miami and Georgia are all on the docket. They also take road trips to Syracuse and UNC. So, while I am not sure how many games this team will win, I see them as the type of feisty group that will make life tough for whoever they play despite being overlooked. QB Haynes King has found his stride with this squad, and coach Brent Key brings energy that this program has desperately craved (they just landed their first five-star recruit in program history). With that tough slate of opponents, they will probably get a lot of favorable spreads. Ultimately, their inability to stop the run will cause them to lose games, but they will often keep things close and cover a lot of spreads. I could see them going 5-7 straight up but going 9-3 or better against the spread.

I have Rice winning 7+ games in 2024, and you should too. The Owls return a ton of productive talent and brought in QB EJ Warner, who led the AAC in passing each of the past two seasons. This team has some fun play makers in the backfield and a top 50 defense nationally. They also have a very favorable schedule. I think the Owls may beat some teams pretty handily in 2024, especially ones who struggle defensively out in space. I also see them as a team that could sneak up on some of the AAC favorites when they travel to Memphis and host USF in the season finale. 

As much as I despise preseason hype, I think the Hokies have earned some of it, especially not losing any starters to the portal. With the most returning production in the country, the Hokies follow the steps of Washington (2023) and TCU (2022) in that statistic. Do with that information as you wish. On top of the returning talent, the depth has improved in all facets, especially on the defensive line. They filled the void at MLB bringing in a veteran with Sam Brumfield and the safeties who struggled last year have greatly improved this spring. As long as this team stays healthy, and with a favorable schedule, anything below nine wins would be a major blow to the momentum.

To quote Jon Rothstein quoting Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park, “Hold onto your butts.” I’m all in on the Hokie hype. And I don’t say this lightly; the last few years have made me afraid to dream big. Or even dream medium. But this team is just so solid in so many different ways. You know the big names: Drones. Tuten. Felton. Lane. Strong. APR. Peebles. Delane. Ali Jennings III could be the unexpected star of this team, fulfilling his publicly-stated goal of being VT’s second 1,000-yard WR. The offense and defense could both be top 25 in the country. Even if the team isn’t quite up to that standard, the schedule is just so favorable. It will honestly be a disappointment if they don’t hit that o8.5 win total. I may or may not have already placed a bet in May for the Hokies to win the ACC at +2200, and that value has slid all the way down to +1000. Do with that what you will.  

This is my biggest preseason bet. I got the Hokies at over 7.5 wins early in the spring, and since then it’s jumped to 8.5. Frankly, even if the worst of injury luck were to strike in fall camp, I see the Hokies fighting for 7-5. When I look at preseason bets, I try to focus on what we KNOW works in college football: experience, good QB play, defensive depth. The Hokies have all of that, and I think the addition of Collin Schlee at backup QB raises the floor of this team by another game. The floor is 7-5, the ceiling is…well just use your imagination.