New Approach Needed for Tech's Next Football Coach

Now that the Virginia Tech Hokies are in the market for a new head coach, expect to be inundated with lists of potential candidates. While the conjecture can be entertaining (if often unserious), it's important to understand that the landscape of college athletics, football in particular, has changed. 

It’s been widely reported that Virginia Tech was late to adapt to that changing landscape. As athletic director Whit Babcock presented to Tech’s Board of Visitors last month, a more pronounced and sustained investment in the football program is necessary for the school to compete. This is true in the near term, but more importantly for the future as we near television deal expiration and an almost certain breakaway of the haves from the have-nots. Virginia Tech cannot sustainably compete in this current world of college football without truly committing financially, and all signs point to a full acknowledgment of this.

Assuming that investment does come, the Virginia Tech Football needs a head coach that can run a program and manage a roster in a manner differently than what worked years ago. 

What has happened since halftime of the Vanderbilt game in Blacksburg was a gut punch to nearly every Tech alum and fan who saw it. The reason is because, for the first time in Brent Pry’s tenure, we saw a decided lack of effort. After the Vanderbilt collapse, it fell on Immanuel Hickman Sr. to state that what we saw was not the standard for Hokie football:

Hickman was exactly right, and to his credit, he stood there, took the post-game questions and answered them honestly. He sounded intent on making it better, though the team’s no-show in the Old Dominion game was a statement on its own. Hickman is also a portrait of what college football, and Virginia Tech football as a microcosm, has become.

Hickman enrolled at ECU in 2019. He entered the transfer portal after the 2022 season and subsequently transferred to South Florida. A year later, he moved on to Virginia Tech as a graduate transfer. He’s been on campus four months. He’ll be gone in three months.

This isn’t a slight at Hickman; it’s the world we’re operating in. After last season, the Hokies lost 31 players to the transfer portal and added 30. In the last two years combined, 37 players entered via the portal; 49 exited that way. Of the 111 players that appear on Tech’s current roster, 76 of them (68%) are in either year one or two. 

Only five of last year’s 20 "Year 4" players are here for "Year 5". Ten of last year’s 19 "Year 3" players are here for "Year 4". That’s 15 of 39 (38%) third- and fourth-year players that stuck around this year. 

This is not surprising, as the national trend has been pointing this way for several years (see below, source: NCAA.org). The nearly-unlimited ability to transfer, and the opportunity for NIL/pay-to-play money (particularly for those not destined for the NFL), means that players will look for greener pastures.

This isn’t a piece to opine on the movement of players one way or the other; rather it’s an acknowledgment of it. There are plenty of schools that can pay more to retain players and selectively purchase players from other rosters when needed. For other schools, it's harder to keep good players now, and players are shuttled off the roster by the teams as well. 

The Hokies find themselves in this position. 

The average tenure of Tech's productive roster is less than two years. Of the Hokies' 22 starters for the ODU game, ten are in their first year in the program. Just two (Benji Gosnell and Jaden Keller) are in their fourth year or beyond. 

Expect a majority of our 76 Year 1 and 2 players this year to be playing elsewhere before their careers end, especially with the coaching change.  Until the rules change, rosters will largely be a turnstile.

What does all of this mean? 

Organizations of any kind (football teams included) are successful when their team members in total are better than the sum of their parts. They’re successful when they are operated with proven systems and a strong culture that balances accountability and teamwork. They’re successful when there is goal clarity and alignment, and trust is inherent. They attract good talent because they have a reputation as a great place to be (usually by winning a lot).

Frankly, little of this has been in place in Blacksburg for quite some time.

In football, that job is considerably more difficult now that there aren’t core groups of star players that grow into leadership roles over a three- or four-year period. The blueprint for success has changed, and the old way of doing things won’t work anymore.

If Virginia Tech is going to succeed in an era where we’re relying on newer players every year, it’s imperative that those players step into a well-managed program. They also need to step into schemes on both sides of the ball that are easier to grasp because we don’t have the luxury of them staying around for years to learn them. 

The staff must excel in talent evaluation, and discerning who will buy in to its systems and culture so that the player acquisition success rate is high. Then, the staff (and football GM if we get one), must smartly invest more heavily in retaining players who are worth the investment – those that can carry the culture – and move on from those that are not. Players will continue to bolt for the chance of a bigger payday, but Tech might successfully convince a few more to stay. 

Hurriedly plugging holes each year with players who looked good on film in a football equivalent of Tinder is not a recipe for sustained success. At best, you might catch lightning in a bottle from a few players looking for a new start. At worst, you have a collection of predominantly me-first individuals ready to pack it in at the first sign of adversity and look for the next green pasture. 

Our athletics department needs a deeper financial commitment, inclusive of player compensation. Within the football program, more is needed and it sounds like it’s on the way. However, the investment is nothing if it's not used the right way.

Expert-level talent evaluation. A proven offensive and defensive system that players can quickly acclimate to. A culture of accountability and a mechanism for creating a level of trust and alignment to team goals. Roster management that includes spending wisely on the players worth investing in.  These are the traits required of the head of Tech's football program. 

Something to consider the next time you see a Tech Football Coaching Candidates List.