The Push for New Year's: Evaluating the Title Races for Each Conference

Evan Bainer

Nov. 7, 2024

With college football’s regular season starting to come to an end, many programs are still in the thick of their respective conference’s title races.

As the college football bowl season and playoffs approach, many teams are pushing to secure spots in the New Year's Six games in December. Even with the expanded 12-team playoff format, many strong teams will be left out of the final bracket come playoffs time. 

Competition from the ACC in college football has been relatively sparse over the past few seasons. However, there is usually a team that can cause some disruption to the SEC and Big Ten. In 2024, Miami appears to be that team for the conference, but the Hurricanes have had some close calls throughout the season. Whether the ACC can compete with other Power Four Conferences this season will be seen in December, when the top team(s) from the conference compete in the College Football Playoff.

While Miami is technically in first place in the ACC, many college football fans would argue that this is more of a pseudo-ranking than anything. The 9-0 record the Hurricanes have comes after late-game controversial calls against Virginia Tech, California, and Louisville that all went Miami’s way in addition to the fact that Miami has not played a ranked team all season. It should be noted, however, that Cam Ward has been leading the charge for the Canes this season, as he is second in passing yards in college football with 3,146, behind Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart, and leads with 29 passing touchdowns. With their remaining games against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Syracuse, Ward and the Hurricanes should almost certainly finish the season undefeated and make the ACC championship.

SMU has had a large influence in the ACC in its first season in the conference. The team has an 8-1 record with some solid wins against Louisville and, most recently, a Pitt team that was neck-and-neck with the Mustangs at the top of the ACC. With SMU’s remaining schedule being matchups against Boston College, Virginia, and California, all teams that currently have a 4-4 record, the Mustangs could very well make their ACC Championship debut this season.

While their record won’t show it, the Tigers are well in the running to make a ACC championship game bid. Through eight games, the team sits at a 6-2 record (5-1 ACC) with the two losses being a blowout loss against Georgia and an upset from Louisville. However, Clemson’s wins, while all by 16 or more points, have come against teams in the bottom half of the ACC standings. If the Tigers can win out the rest of the season, which includes beating ACC contender Pittsburgh and SEC disrupter South Carolina, then they could very well grab the other spot in the conference championship against Miami based off of strength of schedule alone.

The Panthers were substantially set back this past Saturday with their loss against top ACC contender SMU. While it is unlikely that Pitt will make the ACC championship this season, there is still a way it could find a way in. First, and most importantly, the Panthers would have to win out the rest of the season, especially considering they would need a victory against Clemson on Nov. 16 in order to get the bid over the Tigers. Secondly, SMU would need to drop one of its remaining games, which would almost definitely give Pitt the edge in terms of strength of schedule when it comes to wins and losses.

The contention for the College Football Playoffs from the Big-12 has been relatively sparse this season. However, the competition for the conference title has been neck and neck nonetheless. With a bid in the CFP likely going to the conference champion, the three-team race to the Big-12 championship game has significant implications for the conference.

Being the only undefeated team left in the Big-12, BYU has now turned into the favorite to win the conference. Iowa State’s loss to Texas Tech on Saturday has now opened the door for the Cougars to take the number one spot in the conference. With Arizona State being its toughest matchup the rest of the season, BYU will almost certainly be in the conference championship, and is looking to be the new favorite to represent the Big-12 in the College Football Playoff.

Iowa State was the favorite to win the Big-12. With the Cyclones loss to Texas Tech on Saturday, however, it’s uncertain whether the team will be able to compete with tougher opponents. While Iowa State is still in position to make the conference championship, it could very well see some struggles late in the season, especially in the last week before conference championship games when the Cyclones take on Kansas State.

Kansas State has been a team flying under the radar in 2024. With last week’s loss to Houston, however, the Wildcats are now on the outside looking in. On the other hand, if their last three games go their way, the Wildcats could manage to sneak their way into the conference championship game. As Kansas State plays Iowa State in the rivalry week, the winner of the matchup will likely be the team to take on BYU in the Big-12 championship.

After remaining in the middle of the Big-12 pack for most of the season, Colorado has made a bit of a surge in recent weeks. This uptick has come in large part from Shedeur Sanders, who has totaled 631 yards and five touchdowns over the past two games. What’s holding Colorado back right now from being a favorite to win the conference is its loss to conference contender Kansas State and Big Ten opponent Nebraska.

Although four new teams in Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington joined the Big Ten in 2024, the former PAC-12 programs have not made too big of an impact in the conference. Due to Michigan struggling this season, however, new contenders have made their way to the top of the Big Ten.

Since beating Ohio State in Eugene, the Ducks have proven themselves to be the best team in college football. The offense led by Dillon Gabriel has been the driving force behind the program, putting up 30 or more points in all but one game so far this season. With games against Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington to finish out the season, Oregon appears to be the number one team in the Big Ten in its first season with the conference.

Indiana is undefeated through nine games. This is a sentence most college football fans probably wouldn’t have even fathomed heading into the 2024 season. After finishing the 2023 season 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten), the Indiana Hoosiers have made quite a turnaround just one year later. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been a big part of this success, as he ranks fifth in yards in the Big Ten and is tied for first in touchdowns in the conference. Whether the team's success is legitimate should be found out over the coming weeks, as the Hoosiers have a significant test against Ohio State on Nov. 23. If Indiana can manage to stay undefeated for the entire season, it’ll look to be the opponent taking on Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.

The main question for this Penn State team is whether it can compete in big games against top opponents. The Nittany Lions were cruising by this season until week 10 when they fell to Ohio State at home. While Penn State has tended to be on the losing end of big time conference matchups in recent years, the team has been an almost definite lock for a CFP spot this season, which most people predicted would happen as a result of the new 12-team format. Nonetheless, Penn State’s playoff berth will likely be an at-large bid, in large part due to the tight conference race in the Big Ten.

Ohio State is in a very similar position to Penn State right now in that both teams have a loss to a top-tier conference opponent. However, Ohio State likely has the upper hand against Penn State, given the head-to-head win the Buckeyes had over the Nittany Lions last Saturday, the general strength of the two teams, and finally Ohio State’s upcoming matchup against Indiana. If everything goes right, and Ohio State wins out, the Buckeyes should secure a spot in the conference championship game.

Almost all college football fans know that the sport is the backbone of the SEC. However, contention for the top spots in the conference has made the SEC that much more competitive in 2024. Further, Alabama for the first time in a while is on the outside looking in, which comes as a result of long-time head coach Nick Saban’s retirement after the 2023 season. To add onto that, Vanderbilt, a team that went 2-10 (0-8 SEC) last season, is very much in the running to make a late-season CFP push, as its last two games of the regular season are against two top teams in LSU and Tennessee. Nonetheless, the race for the title in the SEC will likely come down to the last week of the season.

The Bulldogs took their loss to Alabama personally, and they have since won each of their following games by two or more scores, including their 30-15 win against the former #1 ranked team in the Texas Longhorns. The Bulldogs have shown time and time again that they can compete at the top, however the Crimson Tide has played spoiler to Georgia over the past couple of seasons. Right now, though, Georgia appears to be the team to beat in the SEC, and upcoming games against Ole Miss and Tennessee could either confirm that, or they could shake the standings up heading into the final stretch of the season.

It’s hard to get a grasp on this Texas A&M team this season. The Aggies have proven they can beat good teams, for example against Missouri in week six and against LSU in week nine. However the Aggies’ loss to South Carolina this past Saturday has in a way undermined the validity of the team that has taken a big leap from where it was last season. While Texas A&M is currently sitting in second place in the SEC, it’s hard to predict that this success will really hold up through the rest of the season. Moreover, Texas A&M’s rivalry week matchup against Texas could very well determine which team makes the SEC Championship Game.

After its 30-15 loss against Georgia on Oct. 19, Texas’s role as the top team in college football has for the most part fallen flat. However, Texas has a very good shot at making the SEC Championship regardless of the fact that the Longhorns are currently fourth in the conference. Two of the teams ahead of Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M, could both fall out of championship contention here over the next few weeks. Tennessee has to take on Georgia, which is ranked second in the nation right now, as well as a sneaky Vanderbilt team that could be looking to play spoiler late in the season. Texas A&M, on the other hand, plays against Texas in rivalry week. If the Longhorns win that game, they would almost definitely take over the Aggies spot towards the top of the SEC.

LSU is probably one of if not the most underrated teams in college football right now. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier currently ranks seventh in passing yards with 2,627 and eighth in touchdowns with 20. While LSU may not be what it was with players like Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson, the team has proven it can play with the other SEC teams in 2024. The loss to Texas A&M definitely hurt the Tigers playoff chances, but with games against Alabama and Vanderbilt over their last four games of the season, the Tigers could very well make a push for a CFP bid.

Much like Texas A&M, it’s difficult to get a read on this Tennessee team this season. Despite the fact that it lost to Arkansas, Tennessee has won all of its games against SEC opponents by 10 or fewer points. The Volunteers have proven they can win games, especially against rather successful teams like Alabama, but they cut it close more than they should if they want to be a top contender especially when the playoffs come around. Tennessee could very well get a reality check on Nov. 16 when it plays Georgia in prime time, but the Volunteers should be able to make the College Football Playoff in 2024 if not the SEC Championship.

While these teams aren’t in a Power Four conference, they should be mentioned because of the impact they can have on the College Football Playoff, both in terms of seeding and playing spoiler to Power Four teams.

Notre Dame right now can be a playoff team based on record alone. However, it may be harder for an Independent team to make the playoffs because of the competition between the Power Four Teams. Nonetheless, with wins over texas A&M, Louisville, and Navy, the Fighting Irish probably have the best chance out of the non-Power Four contenders for getting an at-large bid, especially if they can get the victory against #18 Army on Nov. 23.

After going 6-6 in 2023, the Black Knights have had a bit of a spark this season. Having gone undefeated through its first eight games, Army has ascended to the top of the college football landscape in 2024. Even so, the Black Knights will likely not get a CFP bid, as their schedule hasn’t been too strenuous this season. They can however look to play spoiler against Notre Dame, a team that is aiming to make the new 12-team playoff bracket.

Boise State’s sole loss this season was a 37-34 defeat to Oregon, which is currently the best team in football. Other than that, the Broncos seem to have a pretty strong hold on the Mountain West Conference this season. This is in large part due to Heisman-contending running back Ashton Jeanty, who leads college football in both yards and touchdowns with 1,525 and 20, respectively. Unless one of the next four games goes awry for the Broncos, they should be looking to grab an at-large CFP bid come December.

There are different ways to see the importance of the conference title races this season. Teams like Penn State and Ohio State may see the Big Ten title as a luxury rather than a necessity, as they are rather well off in terms of punching a ticket to the CFP. However, teams that may not have the record and strength of schedule to make the playoffs, like those in the ACC and Big-12, will likely be seeing the conference championship as a necessity in order to make the playoff bracket. Regardless, every week until the conference championship games will be crucial for each contender.