Virginia Tech Women’s Basketball Are No Match For #13 Louisville - A Non-Deep Dive

Virginia Tech went into Louisville hoping to match its upset of the Cardinals last year. However, Louisville was too much for the Hokies in the 85-60 Tech loss. 

Some Tech fans may be tempted to read too much into and may over-react to this game. They may think the sky is falling and that the team won’t win another ACC game this season. However, there is nothing really DEEP about this loss, so this is a Non-Deep Dive!

The 13th ranked Cardinals are one of the top teams in the ACC: they were picked 4th in the pre-season ACC poll and had two first place votes.  This game was going to be difficult for the Hokies coming in, and, indeed, Louisville was the superior team.

The Hokies stayed with the Cardinals for the first seven or so minutes of the first quarter.  Carys Baker scored first in the game on an offensive rebound putback off a Carleigh Wenzel missed 3-pointer. After trading baskets, Louisville hit back to back threes to push the lead to five.  Even with Tech able to keep the first quarter score at 19-12, Louisville began to pull away.  Baker and Samyha Suffren provided an offensive boost, but the Cardinals shot 61% and outscored the Hokies 25-15 in the second frame to take a 44-27 lead into the half.

Louisville pulled further away in the third quarter.  While Tech shot 50% to Louisville's 43.5% in the third, Tech only had 5 makes as opposed to Louisville’s 10, which included four three pointers. The Cardinals extended their lead to 31 with 5:16 left in the quarter.  The Hokies did outscore the Cardinals 18-15 in the final quarter to close the gap to the final 25-pt margin, but the outcome was not in question.  Virginia Tech drops to 1-3 in the ACC and 11-5 overall.  Louisville, elevated to #10 in the rankings after the gane, sits atop the ACC tied with 4 other teams with a 4-0 conference record and is 14-3 overall.

After the game, Tech head coach Megan Duffy said,  “I thought [the Cardinals] were the tougher team today. They really feed off their crowd, and Coach [Jeff Walz] does a great job of putting some different lineups in. Sometimes they get stronger when they sub. Overall, I thought their effort exceeded ours today.”

SIX THOUGHTS AFTER THE GAME

#13 Louisville’s Size, Skill, and Depth

Louisville is the #13 team in the country for a reason. The Cardinals threw size at the Hokies in the form of three starting 6’2 or 6’3” forwards who combined size, length, skill, and mobility: 

• Laura Ziegler, #0-  6’ 2” forward
• Elif Istanbullouglu, #11 - 6’ 3” forward
• Aniya Hardy, #9 - 6’3” forward

This threesome presented mismatches right from the start. For example, on Louisville’s first offensive possession,  6’2” Laura Ziegler set a screen on Mackenzie Nelson and then rolled into the lane forcing Nelson to switch on to her.  Freelon cheated over to help, so Louisville passed into 6’3” Aniya Hardy in the high post who attempted a dump down to Ziegler who had sealed Nelson. Only a nice play by Freelon to tip and steal the pass saved an easy score by Louisville. 

On Louisville's second offensive possession, Ziegler posted up Mel Daley on the block. Freelon left Hardy from the opposite block to double team and help Daley.  Hardy flashed across the lane for a pass, and Nelson dropped down BEHIND Hardy.  Ziegler got the entry pass and hit Hardy, who dove easily down in front of Nelson. The result: a layup and a foul on Nelson.

These were the first two possessions, but they are examples of what the Hokies had to deal with all night.

• Hardy - Finished with 8 points on 4-of-5 of shooting. She had 8 offensive rebounds.
• Istanbulluoglu - Finished with 9 points on 4-of-8 shooting and 1 free throw. She also had 3 rebounds.
• Ziegler - Finished with 18 points on 6-of-12 shooting and 2 free throws. She had 9 rebounds, with 6 of them on the offensive end.

Ziegler showed why she was a pre-season All-ACC player. She scored 18 points from various spots on the court. She was 2-for-4 from three, moved around the Hokie defense to score from mid-range or under the basket, and helped orchestrate the Louisville offense.

When asked what allowed Louisville to be successful even when Tech made plays,  Coach Duffy said, “I think the physicality inside was challenging. Even when we switched up to the zone, just felt like we couldn’t grab a rebound. It can wear you out, too, at different points, I thought the extra possessions. Even when I felt like we started playing some better basketball, it was maybe plus-two or was even, and just couldn’t get over the hump. But the quarters of giving up over 20, it just can’t happen.”

Indeed, Louisville outrebounded Tech 41-34, but, even more telling, grabbed 19 offensive rebounds. Louisville missed 38 shots all game, which means it got second chances on half of its misses.

The Cardinals, however, have more than size; the guards are dangerous as well. The Hokies held guard Tajianna Roberts (#22) to 9 points on 3-of-12 shooting, but her three makes were all from behind the arc. She also added 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal. Mckinley Randolph (#4) added 11 points and Imari Berry came off the bench to score 13 points, including three three pointers. Two of those threes broke a 6-6 tie in the first quarter and helped stretch the Louisville lead.

0-for-16 From Three

While Louisville is the #13 team in the country with size, skill, and depth, Virginia Tech did not help itself in the game. Whereas Louisville started out hot, shooting 43.8% in the first quarter, Tech started the game cold. The Hokies shot 5-for-17 in the first quarter, good for 29.4%. In what portended a game long problem, the Hokies were 0-for-5 from three in that first frame.

Even when the Hokies improved to shoot 40%, 50%, and 47%, respectively, over the final three quarters, the drought from the three point line continued. No one could make a 3-pt shot. Wenzel and Baker were a combined 0-for-9. Suffren and Swanson were each 0-for-2. Nelson, Wells, and Peterson were 0-for-1. Overall, Tech ended the game 0-for-16 from the arc, the first time it has not made at least one three pointer since December 21, 2015 against Radford.

In reaction to a question about the 0-for-16 night in her post-game press conference, Coach Duffy said, “We are going to try and get in the gym and get better. It is a very challenging stat. We look at that - those numbers - and sometimes, you are going to take a couple of bad threes of a late shot clock or contested shots, but I thought a lot of them when we moved it, we had pretty good looks and were not able to hit them.”

Defense / Effort

Virginia Tech’s defense had good moments.  It generated 9 steals, led by Freelon and Suffren with 3 each. Baker added two and Sophia Swanson took one away.  In addition, the Hokies forced Louisville into 15 turnovers and had 3 blocks.

However, Tech also had numerous defensive breakdowns. While Louisville’s ball movement and player movement got Tech players rotating and out of position, especially on the weakside, sometimes the issue was effort. Below is a play in transition that began Louisville’s separation in the first quarter. After a missed shot, Louisville moves the ball up the court, Mel Daley, who started at the level of the free throw line in Tech’s offensive zone is jogging back. Mackenzie Nelson goes to the ball-handler on the sideline and tries to draw a charge but misses, leaving Carleigh Wenzel exposed in a 2-vs.-1 situation with the ball handler and Istanbulluoglu. Daley isn’t the only one jogging on this play. 

Defending Screens  - As mentioned above, Louisville did a great job creating mismatches by forcing guards to switch on to their taller forwards around the basket.  There were also breakdowns against screens on the perimeter. On this particular play, Louisville’s Ziegler gets the ball coming up the court and calls for Hardy to come up. She passes to Hardy and then moves to get a hand-off. Unless Carys Baker drops and gets to the baseline side faster, she is going to be screened by both Mel Daley and Ziegler.  Daley NEEDS to recognize this and switch quickly enough to take on Ziegler. She does not, which leaves Baker trailing behind the easy layup.  No one moves over from their help position to stop the drive.

Carys Baker Doesn’t Let Missing Threes Stop Her

Despite the offensive struggles, there were positive bright spots for the Hokies.  While Carys Baker struggled from beyond the arc, going 0-for-5, she found other ways to contribute. Baker led the Hokies with 16 points on 8-of-9 shooting inside the three point line. She scored half of the team’s 12 first quarter points to keep Tech within striking distance early.  Baker also had 9 rebounds (3 offensive), leaving her 1 board away from a double-double, and  added 2 steals and 1 assist.. 

When asked about Baker’s game, Duffy said, “I thought Carys did a good job of getting to her spots. She is becoming a pretty versatile player for us, which is great. When her three ball was not falling, I thought she was aggressive moving around and finding different ways to help us be successful - one short of a double-double. I think she is doing some of the right things, but I know she is going to be hungry to continue to get in the gym and improve.

Samyha Suffren Provides a Spark

Samyha Suffren came off the bench to play a season-high 28 minutes. She scored 14 points on 6-of-15 shooting. Suffren also posted season highs in rebounds (7) and assists (5), to go along with three steals and no turnovers. While her outside shot remains a work in progress, Suffren’s quickness to the rim and decision-making were bright spots.

About Suffren’s performance, Coach Duffy said, “I thought Samyha was really good today.I thought her energy to defend, be scrappy, she was trying to get to her strengths on the offensive side. I think the thing with our team is just the consistency to do that across the board, whether that’s her, other guards on our team. If she can build off of that, it’s a good thing for us.”

Other Players

Kilah Freelon - Freelon scored 8 points on 3-of-4 shooting and 2 free throws. She was active on the boards, grabbing 7 total rebounds. Three of those were offensive. Freelon also made 3 steals.

Mackenzie Nelson - Nelson scored 8 points from 2-of-4 shooting and 4 free throws. She added an assist.

Carleigh Wenzel - Carleigh Wenzel scored 5 points, but shot 1-for-10, including 0-for-4 from three.  She also contributed 3 assists and 2 rebounds. When asked about Wenzel’s tough shooting night, Coach Duffy said, ““I feel for her. She is getting in the gym. She is trying to produce for us. I thought after the last game, she really stepped up for us hitting some shots within our three levels, which is good. Just had a disappointing night tonight. That kid is going to keep fighting and grinding. We have all the confidence in the world that she is going to get through it and figure out different ways, whether at the point or after the ball to help us be successful.

Sophia Swanson -  Sophia Swanson got extended minutes and scored 2 points off 1-for-4 shooting, including 0-2 from three.  She added a steal.

Aniya Trent / Amani Jenkins / Kayl Peterson - The group of three backup forwards all got opportunities on the court and held their own at times against the big Louisville front-line..  They combined for 3 points and 7 rebounds, including 4 offensive boards.

Mel Daley - Daley only played 12 minutes, scoring 4 points on 2-of-4 shooting. She also contributed one defensive rebound and a block.

What to Get Out of This Game Going Forward

There are lessons to be learned from this game, including some positive dynamics. Coach Duffy continues to look for consistency from her roster. She said, “After the Miami game, we were pretty devastated with that fourth quarter and how overtime went. So we’re trying to dig deeper into finding a little bit more consistent play and the effort it takes when you’re on the road or protecting your home court, and I do think today, despite the score, there were some positive moments of us executing a little bit better and responding out of a couple of timeouts. I think the key with us is getting more players on board to do it consistently, and we’re going to keep fighting and swinging and punching to figure that out.”

Coach Duffy continually talks about wanting her players to trust the process and to work to be better. After the Miami game, she talked about this team being a bunch of fighters who come back from adversity. 

The team has a slate of games coming up that represent opportunities to get better and gain confidence. All of these games, even road ones, are winnable. If this team can play like it did against Florida State and for the first three quarters of the Miami game, it has a chance to build both its resume and confidence.

• @ Syracuse - 20-pt loss to Duke. Wins over SMU (9 pts), Florida State (10 pts) and Wake Forest (15 pts)
• Boston College - ACC losses to UVA (26 pts), UNC (51 pts), Duke (51 pts), Pitt (3 pts)
• @ SMU - ACC losses to Syracuse (9 pts), UVA (24 pts), Louisville (33 pts), Georgia Tech (9 pts)
• Clemson - ACC losses to Louisville (11pts) and UVA (10 pts). Wins over Pitt (32 pts) and Miami (15 pts)
• @ Wake Forest -  ACC losses to Pitt (9 pts), Miami (3 pts), and Syracuse (15 pts). Wins over Georgia Tech (1 pt) and Pitt (19 pts)
• Pittsburgh - ACC losses to Clemson (32 pts), Notre Dame (35 pts), Wake Forest (19 pts). Win over Boston College (3 pts)

Youtube Video Replay of Full Game