Virginia Tech Women's Offense Goes Cold in Loss to Duke - A Deep Dive

Virginia Tech and Duke met Sunday for the ACC opener for both teams. Duke came into Cassell Coliseum seemingly vulnerable. The ACC pre-season no. 1 Blue Devils sported a 3-6 record and were coming off four straight losses. Of course, three of those losses were to top teams in the country: #2 South Carolina, #3 UCLA, and #5 LSU. A fourth, early season, loss was to #16 Baylor. In addition, Virginia Tech had just toughed out a win against a physical Florida team. The Hokies had an opportunity for an upset against a team that came into Cassell struggling.

The Hokies played the Blue Devils tight in the first quarter, After Duke worked out a 9-4 lead in the opening six minutes, Tech fought back to a 14-12 margin at the end of the frame. Neither team played or shot particularly well; it felt more like a sloppy, hectic back and forth with neither team settling into their offense. The game was largely lost in the second and third quarters, with Duke outscoring Tech by six in the second and by seven in the third to stretch the lead to fifteen. Even when the Hokies made a run to narrow the lead to thirteen in the fourth quarter, it was too late. Tech lost by the 70-54 final score.

Carleigh Wenzel led the Hokies in scoring with 15 points on 4-for-17 shooting (3-for-7 from three) and 4-for-4 from the free throw line. No one else scored in double figures. Carys Baker, Samyha Suffren, and Kilah Freelon all had six points. Mackenzie Nelson added 5 points and led the team with 4 assists. Mel Daley, Kayl Peterson, Leila Wells, and Aniya Trent each scored 4 points apiece. 

SIX THOUGHTS AFTER THE GAME - WHAT WENT WRONG?

Hokies Don’t Take Advantage of Turnovers

Virginia Tech played defense well enough to defeat Duke.  The Hokies created a mix of 12 steals and 24 Duke turnovers. The twelve steals exceeded the teams average for the season. The foursome of Mackenzie Nelson, Carleigh Wenzel, Mel Daley, and Samyha Suffren were, at times, a four-woman wrecking crew. Samyha Suffren read a screen and roll perfectly and dropped off her player to steal a drop down pass to Duke’s Toby Fournier. Mel Daley leaped to deflect a pass near the three point line, tipped it to herself, and sped the other way eyeing the basket. Nelson and Wenzel both shot the gaps in the passing lanes multiple times to intercept cross-court passes. Nelson drew yet another charge, and the Hokies forced Duke into several illegal screens, resulting in turnovers.

The Hokies did have twenty-two points off those turnovers, Tech’s 0.92 efficiency conversion rate for converting turnovers to points falls within the 0.8 to 1 pt range, which actually means Tech capitalized well on the defensive opportunities it created. However, in the larger scheme of the game, Tech didn't take advantage of those Duke mistakes enough. On the aforementioned Daley steal, she ran into a Duke player for called charge when Nelson was running with her.  In Coach Duffy's post-game press conference, she said, “I thought we could have capitalized a little bit better on their turnovers. We were a little bit tentative in transition. Bobbled the ball a few times. I thought it was a little bit uncharacteristic of us once we got out in transition. Some of our decision-making and confidence to go up with it. But yeah, you need to capitalize when you turn the ball over like that.”

Too Many Hokie Turnovers

Tech committed seventeen turnovers, with Duke snagging ten steals, which partially negated the benefit of causing those Duke turnovers. Duke’s Tainia Mair had six of those steals, all in the first half.  No one player deserves blame. Seven players had at least two turnovers. Players drove into the lane and tried an over the shoulder pass to someone on the opposite block, only for the pass to be stolen. There were several baseline drives that resulted in players being squeezed and throwing an errant pass. Duke tipped the ball out the hands of a player at the free throw line.

On the surface, the Hokies won the turnover battle. It had a +7 turnover differential, and Duke  “only” scored 13 points of Tech’s 17 turnovers for a.76 efficiency rating. However, in a game in which every possession started to count, especially as Duke started to pull away, Tech lost too many possessions.

Shooting Woes

The “Lab” needs to be open overtime because something is off with the team’s shooting.

Tech shot an ice cold, season low 26.6% (17-64) from the field and 31.5% (5-16) from three. Take away those five three pointers and Tech only made 12 shots from inside the three point line. Baker shot 2-for-10, including 2-for-6 from three. Though Wenzel shot 3-for-7 from three (a good 42.8%), she was 4-for-17 overall. Daley shot 1-for-9. Nelson was 1-for-7. Suffren, 2-for-7.  Duke has the ability to make teams look bad. Coach Duffy said, “They are big. They are long. They are physical. They are going to prevent you from getting to some of your spots. One of the things we were talking about a lot leading up to this game was changing sides of the floor and I thought we were a little bit tentative with that. So, we will go back to the drawing board and figure out ways we can help our women get some easier shots. I think we rushed them a little bit with their size and length.”

The poor shooting night was not solely because of Duke’s defense. There were hurried shots, shots off low passes, shots barely into a possession, and shots late in a possession. However, shooting has been a problem all season long. Shooting from inside and beyond the arc is down from last year. The team is shooting 27% from three, with only one player (Baker) shooting above 30%. In comparison, the team shot 39% last season with five of seven players with 20 or more attempts shooting over 30%. Last year, the team had four reliable three point shooters. It isn’t just about missing Matilda Ekh. Tech misses Lani White. Going into this season, players like Nelson, Daley, Wells, and Suffren were not three-point shooters. Those players spent the off-season working on their outside shot, but their shooting is likely going to be a work in progress.

Finishing layups have also been a problem at times. Fans have targeted Wenzel, but she isn’t the only one who had issues finishing against Duke and other opponents. Yes, there have been times when officials could have called contact fouls on drives, but players are taking poor angles, driving into traffic, or jumping too soon without really going up to the basket.  Sometimes the team’s spacing is poor with a teammate too close to the driving lane, which brings an extra defender over to challenge the layup. The best layup effort against Duke tonight was a transition drive in which Nelson just simply drove into the defender. She was fouled and went to the line.  No hesitation. No cuteness. No wild shot. She just kept it simple.

Baker just had a two game stretch in which she shot 62% from the field. Daley went 64% between the BYU and Oregon State games, and is 50% overall for the season. While 60%+ isn’t sustainable, avoiding swings in the opposite direction is vital for team success.  Something has to give when it comes to shooting and finishing consistently.

Duke Was Strong in the Paint / Offensive Rebounding

Duke outrebounded the Hokies 50-34, including grabbing 16 offensive rebounds. Fournier had four, Riley Nelson and Emilee Skinner had three apiece, Jordan Wood had 2, and two other players had one.  Every miss by Duke felt like there was a good chance that the Blue Devils would get the offensive rebound. To put that in perspective, Duke missed 34 shots. Sixteen offensive rebounds means the Blue Devils got the rebound on nearly half of its missed shots (47%).

Exacerbating the problem was that every offensive rebound brought with it the strong chance of a putback for score and/or a foul on a Tech player. Indeed, Duke scored seventeen second chance points to Tech’s twelve points off eleven offensive rebounds. In addition, Duke shot 29 free throws to Tech’s 17.

Duke scored thirty two points in the paint to Tech’s twenty four. Fournier led the way for Duke with 19 points and shot fourteen free throws due to fouls from other offensive putbacks or simplifying posting up  (Note: Fournier was 5-14 from the line). Baker acknowledged the issue on the boards was “they (Duke) are lengthy. They are long. I think there were a lot of opportunities where we didn’t use the physicality that we have been working on in practice to our advantage. In post play, the majority of that was on us. Just not pushing them back. There were a lot of things we gave up that could have cut the lead down alot.”

It was not all bad for Tech. Kayl Peterson had a team-leading four offensive rebounds (team-leading 6 total) and scored four points off putbacks in fifteen minutes of action. Aniya Trent held her own defensively against the All-ACC Fournier and scored four points. Coach Duffy even said,”(she) thought Aniya played some good minutes again and I thought our forwards were good. Just, we needed a little bit more.”  Tech’s two freshman forwards, Baker, Peterson, and Freelon did well against the size of Oregon State and Florida, but the war in the paint against Duke can essentially be broken down to the presence of Fournier. Tech’s interior players already display promise; they just have to be show consistency in controlling the lane.

Tech Needs Kiilah Freelon on the Court

Kilah Freelon has dealt with foul trouble at various points in the last three games, which has limited her contributions.  Unfortunately, she has had to sit early and played less than 20 minutes against both Florida and Duke. Freelon picked up two quick fouls in the first quarter against Duke and had to sit for most of the first half. Three minutes into the second half, Fournier got an offensive rebound off her own shot and scored on the putback. Freelon was called for a foul, went to the bench again, and sat until the 2:52 mark. Fortunately, Duke could only expand its lead by two during that five minute stretch. Unfortunately, not having Freelon hurt the Hokies chances of cutting into the lead. Actually, during those last three minutes of the third, Duke widened the gap to 15 points.  Freelon ended up fouling out with one minute in the game.

During that 9-minute stretch in the fourth quarter, Freelon made her presence felt and showed what could have been: she grabbed three rebounds, including 1 offensive rebound, and scored 6 points off two free throws and two layups.  However, it was too late. On the positive side, the foul situation has meant players like Aniya Trent and Amani Jenkins have played more. On the other hand, Tech needs Freelon on the court.

Baker and Wenzel - Know They Need Get The Team Together and Move Forward

Everyone knew Duke would be a physical test coming in to Cassell; the Blue Devils, known for defense under Coach Kara Lawson, have given the Hokies fits in past games - including the Elizabeth Kitley teams. This Duke team was “hungry for a win” as Duffy said. She acknowledged that Tech didn’t quite have it today.” How did Duke affect them and what happens next is important. Caleigh Wenzel said that she “and Carys specifically have .. we are kind of used to how they play. We have played them a couple of times now, so you kind of know what to expect coming in. So, I think it is just getting everyone on the same page. Getting everyone ready to go, going into the game. Letting them know what to expect.”

Baker reiterated that she and “Carleigh have been playing up against Duke for a while now, so we knew what to expect. I think it was hard to get everyone on the same page all at the same time. We play again on Wednesday, so the bounce back has to be quick. We just have to turn around and get everyone on the same page because when we are on the same page, we are clicking very well. We can’t really dwell on this for a while because we play again in two days.”

It is important to remember that this is one game, against a Duke team and All-ACC forward Fournier that won the ACC tournament last season. There is a long season ahead for the Hokies, with many opportunities to build a successful ACC resume. As Coach Duffy said, “she is focused on making this team better. We have a quick turnaround. We have played so many different styles this year, which is great. A little bit for us is to turn the page. Coaches will get working. Players will have their rest and recovery. And then we will reset tomorrow and try to get better. That is the only thing we can focus on.  This last week has been good for us, really good competition."

NEXT UP:  The Hokies will use this early season experience, as well as the next few games this coming week against Presbyterian on Wednesday and East Tennessee on Sunday, to prepare for its second ACC game at Florida State on Thursday, December 18.

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