Lock$ of Saturday Week 3

Happy Thursday, Hokies!

This week, we have some Lock$ not just for Saturday, but Thursday and Friday too. It's a jam-packed weekend!

Let's take a look at our records and net units:

Robert: 14-18, +2.49 units

Brett: 14-12, +1.6 units

Sam: 9-13, -4.9 units

It was a tough week all around last week, but let's try to bounce back!

Arizona State (+1.5) @ Texas State

Robert's Pick

Texas State -1.5

While the Sun Devils are certainly a program on the rise, they are still a long way away from getting a tough road W like this. Cam Skattebo has been awesome at running back this year, but their offense is pretty one-dimensional. Meanwhile, the Bobcats proved the CFP hype is real last week, and I just don’t see ASU making enough plays in the passing game to keep pace in the biggest home game in TXST history (for now).

Brett's Pick

Texas State -1.5

Well well well, the Bobcats woke up from their “cat nap” last week against UTSA, absolutely bludgeoning the Roadrunners 49-10 in the HEB I-35 Rivalry. McCloud had a fantastic week, accounting for four touchdowns, and now the Bobcats look dangerous. The Arizona State offense only has 300 passing yards in two games, so if the Bobcats can get a couple stops I have a hard time seeing them keeping up offensively. To add, both teams are coming off a short week and big wins. In this spot, the home team usually prevails. This is my lock of the week (ON THURSDAY!).

Sam's Pick

Texas State -1.5

I love both these teams, but I think the spot leans to the Bobcats in this one. Arizona State dominated the first three quarters vs Mississippi State last weekend, but you could see the lack of depth in the 4th as some tired legs took over. I think the short week hurts the road team more.

Arizona (+7.0) @ Kansas State

Robert's Pick

Arizona +7.0

Last week was certainly rough for this Arizona offense to say the least. But I still believe in the Fifita/McMillan duo, and while Kansas State is my pick to win the Big 12, I see Arizona being right in the mix with them. This feels like a one-possession game between who I see as the future Big 12 Championship Game participants.

Brett's Pick

Kansas State -7.0

Both of these teams left much to be desired last week. Kansas State looked awful in the first half and squeaked out a win against a down Tulane squad while Arizona pretty much went down to the wire with FCS Northern Arizona. Avery Johnson hasn’t really impressed me yet but the Wildcats run game has. DJ Giddens, Dylan Edwards, and adding Avery Johnson in there is a good trio to control the ball. The way Arizona plays with Fifita is the definition of FRISKY. With a new coach and new players, you will see them put up 60 (like week one) or look abysmal (like week two). I like the home team advantage here and the more experienced coach. 

Sam's Pick

Arizona +7.0

Just too many points against a good offense that has proven it can score on the road. I like K-State and Avery Johnson, but they are far from a dominant team. I expect a really good, probably high-scoring game that comes down to the 4th. 

Well well well, the Bobcats woke up from their “cat nap” last week against UTSA...

Brett Smith

Alabama (-16.0) @ Wisconsin

Robert's Pick

Alabama -16.0

Alabama left a lot to be desired against USF for the second year in a row, which is likely driving this line down from being 3+ TDs. However, this Wisconsin team is not good, and the Tide is due for a bounceback week. Add on the fact that the temperature in Madison is predicted to be a balmy 79 degrees, and the Badgers won’t have their cold weather advantage either. 

Brett's Pick

Alabama -16.0

If you watched any of that Alabama game last week, you know the score was not a reflection of how Alabama actually played. Some definite concerns on both sides of the ball walking away from that, but Wisconsin is not good., like REALLY not good. They have looked shaky against a bad WMU team and an average FCS opponent in South Dakota. If DeBoer is half the coach I think he is, this is their chance for a get-right game before SEC play. 

Sam's Pick

Wisconsin +16.0

You’re giving me over two touchdowns in Camp Randall?! Heck yeah. The Badgers may not be the prettiest pigs at the state fair, but they’re still some big ol’ hogs. I think Alabama wins this game, but the Badgers will look to control the clock and run play action against a pretty suspect Bama secondary. We also haven’t seen Jalen Milroe have an “oopsies!” moment yet this season. Feels like we’re due for that. 

Memphis (+6.5) @ Florida State

Robert's Pick

Memphis +6.5

This is one of those situations where you just have to fade the Noles until they prove they can put some consistent offense together. The models still favor them based on their talent coming into the preseason, so this feels like a good chance to steal some points with a really good team in Memphis.

I have absolutely no reason to pick FSU here, but they really don’t have a choice if the ship wants to stay afloat. I truthfully do not love this pick, but I expect the Noles to bring out all the stops to try to scrape by with a one-score win at home. Will DJ Uiagaleiei win them a lot of games? Not from what I have seen ever in his career, but Saturday is a must-win situation for Norvell against his old school. 

Brett's Pick

Florida State -6.5

Sam's Pick

Memphis +6.5

I said at the beginning of the year I don’t know if Florida will cover more than four spreads this season. The Tigers can score in bunches and have shown an improved defense this season. I don’t know if Florida State’s offensive operation is clean enough to keep up. Memphis moneyline is not a bad play, especially with some less-than-stellar weather on the radar.

We also haven’t seen Jalen Milroe have an “oopsies!” moment yet this season. Feels like we’re due for that.

Sam Jessee

Boston College (+17.5) @ Missouri

Robert's Pick

Missouri -17.5

While the story in BC has been a joy to watch, they just do not have the physicality to match a really good Mizzou team. Plus, I don’t see BC being able to keep Luther Burden under any sort of containment. Castellanos is going to have to play Hero Ball, which typically does not work out for Boston College.

Brett's Pick

Missouri -17.5

Is BoB really that dude? Maybe! Is Castellanos fun to watch? For sure! Does that mean Mizzou won’t win by 3+ scores? Nope! Mizzou is a very good football team, I mean VERY good. Even against weaker foes, not a single point has been scored on them yet. They are one of the biggest teams in CFB in the trenches, much different than anything BC has faced yet. They also have the best WR in the country with Luther Burden (who has played limited snaps because of weak opponents). I really like Brady Cook's dual threat ability as well. I think BC will surprise more people this year, but this is a bad matchup for them in only week three.

Sam's Pick

Missouri -17.5

Credit to Boston College for improving in the offseason, but this isn’t hapless Florida State or Duquesne. Missouri hasn’t allowed a single point this season. They look to have reloaded on defense, and the offense is really crisp and multi-faceted. Also, Columbia is a sneaky tough place to play. I think BC gets knocked back down to earth this weekend. 

Virginia Tech (-15.0) @ Old Dominion

Robert's Pick

Old Dominion +15.0

Just win the game. I don't care if it's close. Just win the game and never set foot in that Voodoo-cursed stadium ever again.

Brett's Pick

Virginia Tech -15.0

The Hokies need to exorcise some demons. They are the better football team, and even if they are going back to the black hole that is SB Ballard stadium, they need to beat the brakes off the Monarchs. I expect no holds barred if the Hokies can start strong.

Sam's Pick

Virginia Tech -15.0

I’m very surprised this line didn’t move to -16.5 or more. When Tech wins under Brent Pry, they’ve won big. 10 of his 11 wins are by 3+ scores. Although I am terrified for this game, I struggle to see the ODU offense scoring more than a few times. On the Hokie side of the ball, it feels like the offense can’t get much worse, and they’ve still managed to average 29 over the first two games. Any improvement from Kyron Drones and Co. should see the Hokies finally exorcise their Norfolk demons.

Just win the game and never set foot in that Voodoo-cursed stadium ever again.

Robert Irby

Other Bets We Love

Robert

UNLV +7.5 @ Kansas

Coastal Carolina -18.5 @ Temple

Florida ML +146 vs. Texas A&M

Tulane +13.5 @ Oklahoma

Wazzu ML +155 @ Washington

App State -1.5 @ ECU

WVU -2.0 @ Pitt

Tennessee -49.5 vs. Kent State

Colorado State ML +205 vs. Colorado

Parlay: Oregon -16.5 @ Oregon State and o49.5, +205

Parlay: Ole Miss -23.5 @ Wake Forest and -14.5 first half spread, +143

Brett

Troy/Iowa u39

Oregon -16.5 @ Oregon State

UCONN +17 @ Duke

App State -2.5 @ ECU

LSU -7 @ South Carolina

TAMU/UF u46.5

Colorado State +230 (.6u)

Ole Miss -23.5

Sam

Colorado State +7 vs Colorado

LSU -7 @ South Carolina

App State -1.5 @ ECU

Baylor -16.5 vs Air Force

Rice +4.5 @ Houston