Around the ACC - Week 12

Week 12 came and went in the ACC, as did several teams’ championship hopes.  The muddled mix at the top of the standings shrunk a little with losses by Duke and Louisville, yet the path to the ACC title game is anything but clear right now.

It seems like nobody wants to win this league, except for UVa, who rebounded nicely from their mid-season lull.  In dismantling Duke Saturday, the Wahoos regained their early season form and look like the favorite to play in Charlotte on December 6.

The others?  They either looked bad this weekend, didn’t play a conference game, or already are on the outside looking in.

Let’s review the big games from the weekend and try to unmuddy the waters of ACC championship hopes, if that is even possible.

Since this is a Virginia Tech–centric media outlet, we will start with the Hokies (3-7 overall, 2-4 in ACC play).  It was a broken-record performance Saturday: lack of a passing game, unfinished drives, repeated struggles to score, continued penalties that put the team in a hole, played hard but come up short.  Again.

I am thankful for the last part of that statement, because at least the team has not given up. The running backs in particular looked good.  There were some pretty big holes and a lot of yards gained after contact. But that was not enough to overcome the shortfalls.

At this point, though, the score of the game means nothing considering the overhaul that is on its way to Blacksburg.  The fan base is really more interested in who the next coach will be rather than wins and losses.  Despite this, the players are still going hard, and that is appreciated.

Miami (8-2, 4-2) comes to Blacksburg next week, and even though the Canes typically don’t play well in Lane Stadium, especially in cold weather, they know they have to impress the voters, so the Hokies could be in for another struggle.  Fresh off their 41–7 thumping of NC State (5-5, 2-4), Miami needs help to get into the playoff, but they have been making a pretty strong case for at-large consideration should a few other dominoes fall.

As for Florida State (5-5, 2-5), they move one game closer to bowl eligibility, but honestly, that is whipped cream on dog doo at this point. Granted, most preseason predictions pegged the Noles to finish around .500, which is right where they are.  However, after that impressive opening victory against Alabama, a 6–6 season seems underwhelming.

Still, for Seminole Nation, it was good to get the win, even if it is only their third conference victory since filing that lawsuit against the ACC.  It was a strong performance Saturday, despite having a quarterback who can’t throw the ball; if they did, they would’ve put up 50!

What the heck Louisville? Two weeks ago, the Cardinals (7-3, 4-3) had a very clear path to the ACC championship game. With two home night games coming up, things looked pretty good.

However, after two penalty-riddled performances, the Cards lost both games by a combined four points, essentially killing their ACC title hopes.

If I was a Louisville fan, I would be ticked off right now. They blew both of those games against mediocre teams (Cal and Clemson).  Stupid penalties (especially on the opponent’s side of the field), a line that couldn’t handle pressure, and a quarterback who is anything but clutch have put a sour taste in the mouth of a fan base who had high expectations only a few weeks back.

Lucky for them they live in the bourbon capital of the world. It won’t be too difficult to drink their sorrows away.

Meanwhile, Clemson (5-5, 4-4) and Dabo Swinney were celebrating that win like it was a championship. Yes, they beat a ranked conference opponent on the road at night, but this is a team who was supposed to be vying for a national playoff spot.

If the Florida State win is whipped cream on doo-doo, then this victory is chocolate syrup on a cesspool.

Much like last year, Clemson is turning it on down the stretch. But unlike last year, they have zero chance to make the conference championship game.

The best they can hope for is a 7-win season, a crappy bowl, and the Palmetto State title.  But that’s a lot better than what we as Virginia Tech fans can say, and I do give Dabo credit for sticking by this team and fighting to the end.

Speaking of what the heck, oh my Georgia Tech!  As a three-score favorite, the Yellow Jackets (9-1, 6-1) went into Chestnut Hill to play a lifeless team on a nine-game losing streak.

Boston College (1-10, 0-7) has the worst rush defense in the league, while Georgia Tech is second in the ACC (only three yards per game behind Florida State).

This should have been a cakewalk for Haynes King and the Jackets, right?

Cue Lee Corso - not so fast, my friend.  Georgia Tech almost gave away their title hopes, falling behind early, needing late game heroics to stage a dramatic come-from-behind win and keep their sights on the ACC championship game.

They’d better shore up that defense, though.  Pitt comes to town next weekend, followed by Georgia.  If the Jackets can hold off Pitt, they will at worst be in a three-way tie for the two bids to the conference title game (more on that later).

And I won’t even discuss Brent Key’s decision to call timeout with 14 seconds left instead of running the clock down to three seconds for the final kick.  As a Hokie, clock management conversations that involve coaches named Brent incite PTSD-like reactions, so I won’t go there other to say, wow, what was that?

SMU and Pittsburgh (both 7-3 and 5-1) are still alive after taking a week off from ACC play.  SMU rested during a bye week, and now they host Louisville and Cal (6-4, 3-3).  Neither game is a gimme, and if the Mustangs can survive both weeks, they will be among the top two or three teams in the league.

Pitt lost handily to Notre Dame, but that was a non-conference game, so the Panthers are still alive.  The do have a clear path.  Of all of the teams at the top, though, Pitt has the toughest schedule to overcome to get to the title game.  They still have to play at Georgia Tech and home against Miami.

Both games are winnable, as GT has suffered defensive lapses recently and Miami isn't exactly good in the cold.  But both games are likely to be tough, physical matchups that will demand tight execution, ball security, and mental toughness.

Pat Narduzzi-coached teams usually possess those traits, so I do give the Panthers a fighting chance here.  I don’t see it as a likelihood, but if they emerged victorious in one - or both - of their final games, I would not be blown away.  

It would be par for the ACC course, too, for Pitt to stir this pot of uncertainty.

The other team in that potential three-way tie is Virginia (9-2, 6-1).  The ‘Hoos dominated Duke (5-5, 4-2), who actually had a legitimate track to the championship game - Duke now plays UNC (4-6, 2-4) and at Wake (7-3, 4-3).  But the Blue Devils looked terrible Saturday, and the league is breathing a sigh of relief that Duke is not going to be in the championship game.

On the other hand, UVa will probably play in Charlotte.  After a bye this week, the ‘Hoos will face their in-state rival at home over Thanksgiving weekend for at least a share of the regular season crown.

Wouldn’t it be amazing for the Hokies to play spoiler and win this game?  They could possibly knock UVa out of the championship game, and of course, out of playoff talk.

But I’m not holding my breath.  Even though this is going to be Virginia Tech’s bowl game, the Wahoos will be plenty motivated as well.  And the ‘Hoos are plenty talented.  Tech will have to bring its A-game for all four quarters, something they have only done once this year.

Can it be done?  Can Virginia Tech keep the Commonwealth Cup and spoil the post-season hopes of their rivals up north?  It’s possible, but I would be surprised if it happened.  Unfortunately that means losing the Cup and watching our rival possibly get to the playoffs before us, but that is the reality of where both programs are this season.

It comes as no surprise that the ACC championship teams likely will not be decided until the final week.  With such a large conference and a lack of program strength on a national level, there are still a decent number of teams who can lay claim to the championship.

With one game remaining against a three-win team, Virginia seems most likely to land in Charlotte.  Georgia Tech also has only one conference game, but it will be a tough matchup against Pitt.  The loser is likely eliminated, and the winner might be in, depending on what SMU can do in their final two games.   

Let’s not even discuss what will happen if all four of those teams lose one more time.  Then Miami and Duke re-enter the picture, and the convoluted tiebreaker system will work overtime.

And after the dust clears, there is a chance that the ACC champion is not one of the five highest ranked conference champions, which would shut the league out of the national playoff.

Wouldn’t that just be icing on the cake for the ACC?  (Are we sure it’s not a dog-doo cake?)