Lock$ of Saturday: Week One

The trial run of Week Zero is over. Time for the real action. Week One is here!

If you enjoyed watching Georgia Tech steal America's (and Ireland's) hearts on Saturday, we hope you were able to enjoy it even more by making some money in the process as Robert advised you to (he and Sam also shared their concerns with FSU and adoration of the Yellow Jackets here).

This is what we do. We bring you winners.

Programming note: with a full slate of action every week, we will be going with the following structure: giving analysis on the spreads of the biggest games of the week and the VT game then listing our favorite bets.

With that said, let's get into it!

Home dogs in a rivalry game? Yeah, I’m taking that all day. I don’t think West Virginia reaches their lofty win total of 2023, but they still have managed to build a pretty competitive roster. I’m a believer in Penn State this season, and I think they will win this game. But with a new OC and not a ton of weapons on the outside, I don’t trust this offense to be at full tilt in week 1. A close, low scoring game feels more realistic. My only worry as a WVU bettor is the Penn State defense has the potential to suffocate teams. The Mountaineers will need to find some explosive plays because long sustained drives won’t happen against this defense.

WVU will be a far better team this year than previous seasons, especially with Garrett Greene at the helm. But to me, Penn State has just too much firepower in the end for WVU to cover here. The combo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are arguably the best RB combo in the country, and they add Julian Fleming from Ohio State out wide. I think Allar takes a big step forward this year as well, starting off in ‘neer country. Let’s not forget, James Franklin LOVES covering games late.

This is a spread I’ve gone back and forth on quite a bit. What ultimately makes me lean toward the Mountaineers - a team that I think is very slept on - is the home environment. The crowd is going to be ROCKING in Morgantown, and Drew Allar has only faced this type of road environment once: a 20-12 loss to Ohio State last year in which he finished with a 30.1 QBR. Talent will ultimately give PSU the W, but I expect WVU to keep it to a one-possession game.

I personally placed my bet for this game in January at UGA -12.5. I think the Dawgs roll. Again, I’m a believer in the Tigers, but they don’t have the talent we’re used to seeing. Georgia should be able to make Clemson one dimensional on offense, and I haven’t seen Cade Klubnik throw the rock around against a good defense once in his career. 35-17 feels more likely than Clemson keeping it close.

Just like I talked about in the futures article, UGA has reloaded while Clemson fields a similar team (maybe worse offensively?) to last year. To keep this short, I think UGA is a far better team than Clemson, and like my fellow writers, I have little trust in Cade Klubnik. This isn’t the same Clemson of yesteryear, and the UGA regime is here to stay. I am putting this game as my lock of the week with UGA winning by 3+ scores.

Much like their fellow anti-ACC legal combattant, the Tigers are going to have a wake up call on Saturday against a team from the Peach State. Their defense should be stout as always, but this offense is still a mess. With little talent in the WR room and no portal acquisitions (did you know Dabo didn’t bring in any transfers? Why aren’t more people talking about this?) Clemson will have to rely on two inexperienced (albeit talented) true freshmen in TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco to help Cade Klubnik out. That's a rough recipe to try and muster up some productivity in Week One against this well-oiled machine.

For those saying “I’ll believe it when I see it” about Miami…we can say the same about the Gators! Miami has a boatload of talent that is proven at the P5 level. I’m going to lean on that talent until they show me it doesn’t work. I also think this is a rare case where the ACC team will dominate the SEC team on the line of scrimmage. If you’re into player props, I’d look at Damien Martinez over rushing yards. Florida gave up 156 yards per game on the ground last season, #81 in the nation. Not sure they can stop Martinez over a 60 minute game.

I HATE picking this game because I am a Miami contrarian no matter the season, but my goodness, Florida is in rough shape. This feels like a typical spot for Miami to win on the road at the SEC for them to be “back," just to then turn around and lose an inexcusable game. I do think Miami is a better team here anyway, especially with Cam Ward and Damien Martinez. The Florida defense's front seven is basically all new, and playing a mobile QB with a preseason All-Conference RB will be a rough start. Napier’s seat will be on fire after week one.

I don’t buy into the Miami hype, but they are a significantly better team than Florida at almost every position. This will be the start of a Florida season so bad it will have coping Gators fans clamoring for some shred of dopamine by posting “Jeff Driskel was a PROBLEM” highlight reels on Twitter. 

Another game that I got early at Aggies +1.0. The line movement is the product of injury issues on the Notre Dame offensive line vs. an elite Texas A&M defensive line. The Irish will be largely inexperienced on the line, and that doesn’t bode well for going into a harsh environment. As good as Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard can be, we haven’t seen it in a while. I think this is a huge coming out party for the Aggies, a team I have CFP aspirations for. 

I love the Irish here, but not at +3.0. The value here is on them taking the game at +125. A completely new offense for the Irish definitely may raise some concerns, but I think Riley Leonard is a better high-level QB than Sam Hartman was, and the Notre Dame defense may be the best in the country. Nine defensive starters return for the Irish, including a stout DL against a subpar TAMU OL. Adding RJ Oben from Duke was massive for them, and I expect them to keep Weigman in the dirt. 

This is a pretty even matchup for me as these are a couple of good-not-great-but-maybe-not-even-good teams. I’m taking the points as I have major questions about this A&M offense with a lot of receiving talent gone and not much replacement. 

Good thing this game is being played in Vegas because this is basically like calling a number on roulette. Both teams have elite offenses and bad defenses. Both teams have talented QBs that are starting for the first time. I understand USC feels better on defense than they have in the past, but even a substantial upgrade across the board would put them at mediocre. I trust LSU to make the better offseason improvements. New Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker molded Missouri into a staunch defense over the past few seasons. I think he can get the most out of LSU’s talent level. 

But the over. Just bet the over. 

My main reason for picking the Tigers here is the coaches. I have seen Brian Kelly win big games, whereas since being at USC, Lincoln Riley has left MUCH to be desired in these kinds of matchups. Overall, I think these teams are fairly even. Terrible defenses paired with QBs trying to fill major voids. I really like the over here for two inexperienced teams with a lot of raw talent. 

I love USC, not just to cover, but to win outright. Simply put, they are a better football team. These will likely be two of the worst defenses in the country (hammer the over!), so it comes down to which QB can make more plays. Miller Moss has shown more promise at this point than Garrett Nussmeier, and I trust Lincoln Riley more than anyone to work with a QB.

*takes off orange and maroon glasses*

Everything you look for in early season games says bet the Hokies. Returning experience and coaching staff, defensive depth, better QB, everything says Hokies. That can, ironically, make these games a bit scary. But fear not! Stick with what works. The reports out of Nashville are…. grim. The Vanderbilt defense, which was one of the worst in power football last season, has seemed to have improved marginally. That’s something to watch. But the offense? The practice reports from Vandy insiders are not good. QB Diego Pavia is a baller, but he makes way too many mistakes to play with that kind of bravado at this level. As for playmakers, there are no playmakers. Questions remain at the WR and RB positions, and the offensive line doesn’t look to be totally set. If the Hokies come to play, this should be an easy win. 

As much as I have been hurt in the past, the last six games of the 2023 season gave me hope that Brent Pry can win - and win fashionably. This team last year was perfectly in the middle when Drones took over, and the identity of the team changed, beating really bad teams handedly and losing (but competing) with teams better than them. Returning almost everyone against a bare Vandy team, I think the Hokies will take care of business similar to what they did to Pitt, BC, Cuse, UVA, and Wake last year. 

First game jitters coursing through my veins aside, I know in my heart that the Hokies are a much better team than Vanderbilt in all aspects. This is the type of game VT thrived in last year once the Drones offense got rolling. They routinely pummeled teams less talented than they were. This should be the same result.

Minnesota +110 vs. UNC

In my College Football Program Power Rankings, I had Minnesota as the 22nd most experienced team in the country. That’s vital in early games. I’m also getting them as home underdogs at night, and that’s just too good to pass up. The Gophers don’t have a ton at the skill positions on offense or defense, but they should dominate the line of scrimmage in this game. Also don’t be surprised if New Hampshire transfer QB Max Brosmer has a big game for the Gophers. He threw for 3,449 yards with 29 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions last season, and I believe he’s a substantial upgrade from what they had a year ago. I’m also not ready to trust UNC without a stud QB. 

Colorado State +31.5 @ Texas

I think Texas can compete for an SEC championship this season, which is why they will show absolutely nothing in week 1. The Longhorns under Steve Sarkisian are also not a team that looks to run it up early in the season. Last year’s playoff team had wins of 27 and 21 vs Rice and Wyoming, respectively. I expect to see the same kind of outcome on Saturday. As for Colorado State, this is one of the feistiest teams in mid-major football. They won’t be scared, and they have some offensive weapons that score in quick strikes. This could be a game at halftime.

Oklahoma State -9.5 vs. South Dakota State

Akron +49 @ Ohio State (lol, just run the clock, Zips!)

Jackson State +240 @ UL Monroe

Jacksonville State -3.0 vs. Coastal Carolina

UNC @ Minnesota u50.5

Illinois State @ Iowa u41.0

Rice -10.0 vs. Sam Houston State

Boston College +16.5 @ Florida State

Minnesota +110 vs. UNC

Florida Atlantic +14.0 @ Michigan State

Parlay: Illinois State +22.5 @ Iowa and U40.5, +167

UConn +20.5 @ Maryland

UNLV +102 @ Houston

UCLA @ Hawaii O54.5

Fresno State +21.5 @ Michigan