Midyear Musings - Around the ACC

We are entering the bye week for Virginia Tech, and since the rest of this season is really just biding time until the coaching and staffing changes occur in Blacksburg, let’s take a look around the league as everybody has already played half of their schedules.

There have been a few surprises in the standings - at both ends - and there are some clear front runners for the league championship game.  At this point, there are still so many possible ACC championship game combinations, but we do have a pool of teams that are most likely to be in the mix.

Let’s talk about the most recent Hokies game, then take a look at the teams of note around the ACC…

This is getting difficult to write about, as Virginia Tech lost at Georgia Tech and there isn’t really anything new to say.

Again, the Hokies struggled to score. Again, they committed bad penalties that are 100% preventable. Again, they failed to play four full quarters and lost for the fifth time this season.

The most notable storyline occurred when Brent Key said in a pregame interview that he wanted to come out fast and play physical. That’s exactly what the Yellow Jackets did, taking the opening drive 80 yards in 9 plays for a touchdown.

Already with a foot on the gas pedal, the Jackets went for the two-point conversion, which felt more symbolic than important to the scoreboard.

On the ensuing possession, Georgia Tech held Virginia Tech to 12 yards on six plays and forced a punt.  GT returned the kick 42 yards, and six plays later, they were in the end zone again.

Key’s words were prophetic, and the Rambling Wreck ended the first quarter with a 15 point lead, which turned out to be the final margin of victory.

Thankfully, the Hokies did not quit, and they played to a tie for the rest of the game.  However, as we know all too well, teams cannot play three quarters of football and expect to win on the road against ranked teams.

The remaining schedule for Virginia Tech is only going to get tougher, so expectations now seem similar to that 2022 season: hope for a competitive game, enjoy the games for what they are, and look forward to the impending changes.

Heading into the preseason, I was very critical of Florida State’s choice of transfer quarterback.  Tommy Castellanos came in from Boston College, where his teams never did anything noteworthy.  After the failure of the DJ Uiagalelei, who was also a bust at Clemson, I was surprised that Florida State would take a chance on another mid-level ACC quarterback.

Admittedly, Castellanos and the rest of the Seminoles squad made me eat crow week one when they dominated Alabama.  They proceeded to put up 143 points over their next two games, climbing all the way into the top ten, and I started to think Boston College was the problem, not Castellanos.

However, three straight ACC losses later and the ‘Noles are 3-3.  The latest letdown, a home loss to Pittsburgh, has Mike Norvell on the hot seat, and I am back to questioning Castellanos’ abilities.

Yes, FSU beat Alabama soundly week one, and Bama is a good football team.  But maybe having the summer to prepare made all the difference?

And what about FSU’s 143 points in their next two games?  They were against East Texas A&M and Kent State.

Although not as prolifically, the Seminoles’ offense is still scoring, but so are their opponents.  In ACC play, FSU has played from behind in all three games now, and since that undefeated season two years ago, the ‘Noles only have one conference win (14-9 over lowly Cal last year).

They are out of the rankings and out of ACC title contention, and if things don’t change in Tallahassee, they might be out of a coach soon too.

It is still way too early to pencil anyone in to the ACC championship game.  Miami appears to be the media’s favorite, but despite being 5-0 and ranked second in the nation, they are only 1-0 in league play and have a few more tests on their schedule.

The U hosts Louisville this week, then in November they play at SMU and Pitt.  While Miami appears to be the best team in the league, this is college football after all, and teams need to show up and execute week after week.

Novel concept, I know, but the frequency of upsets in college football reminds us that we are far from knowing who will play in Charlotte in December.  And let us not forget that the Canes have a history of farting away wins late in the year.

Georgia Tech, Duke, and Virginia are all sitting atop the conference at 3-0 in ACC play.  Duke and GT play this weekend, so the winner will have a leg up.  Tech also plays at Pittsburgh, but on paper, that is their toughest remaining game after this weekend.

Duke still has to play at Clemson and against Virginia and Wake Forest, who suddenly isn’t a pushover.  UVa also plays the Demon Deacons, but no one else of note.

Any of these teams can run the table and secure a spot in Charlotte.  If they all stumble, watch out for SMU, who is currently 2-0 in conference games.  They seem to have the toughest path to the title game, though, still with Clemson, Wake, Miami, and Louisville left on their slate.

Speaking of SMU, did you happen to see their crowd (or lack thereof) for their home game against Stanford last weekend?  Yikes.  Well, at least we know that if they make it to Charlotte for the ACC championship game, they will have experience playing in front of sparse crowds!

And we cannot yet count out the one-loss teams either.  If Pitt or Louisville win out, they could each play their way into the title game.  (Theoretically, so could Cal and UNC, another pair of 0-1 ACC schools, but does anyone think either of those teams will win three more, let alone seven more ACC games?)

There could easily be a tie at the top spot, and I’m not going out on a limb by saying there will be a tie for the second spot.  With so many teams in the league, it is likely that head-to-head record is not applicable as a tiebreaker, so then it’s an analysis of wins over common opponents.  After that, it gets complicated - you can read the entire ACC tiebreaker policy here.

What does all this mean?  There is a lot of football to play, and it is very likely going to be an interesting month of October, followed by another interesting month in November for ACC football fans.

It is also likely that Bank of America Stadium will have a sparse crowd on December 6, as most of these conference frontrunners do not travel well.  But it will still be a huge event, as a college football playoff bid will be on the line, and for a lot of the teams in this conversation, that bid would be a monumental achievement for their program.

I bet that the league brass is rooting for Miami, and most of those reading this column are rooting against Virginia.  However, this should be a good race, and regardless who ends up in the championship game, I am looking forward to watching it all play out in the back half of the 2025 schedule.