Midyear Musings as Virginia Tech Heads into the Bye Week

After beating Stanford in its most complete game of the year, Virginia Tech heads into the bye week with a 3-3 record.  Although it was not exactly an exciting game, it did leave the fanbase more than satisfied with the performance.

The team’s play was very much reminiscent of old school Tech football.  Yes, there were a few explosive plays, but otherwise it was an incredibly efficient effort as Tech scored on five of its eight possessions (not including the end of the half where they ran out the clock on just three plays). 

Defensively, the Hokies held Stanford to one touchdown that came on a trick play and they also forced two turnovers.  The front seven was disruptive (more on that later), finishing with five sacks and twelve tackles for loss.

It was the kind of win that made older fans like myself feel better about the team and the trajectory of the season. Although popular opinion says that bye weeks are good – and this is true for the Hokies who need a respite to help with their injuries – I sure hope the break does not spoil the momentum that has been built recently.

With an upcoming week off, let’s take a few minutes to reflect on where the Hokies are, how they got here, and what is left to do...besides the obvious – win!

No Hokie is happy to be 3-3 right now.  In fact, earlier in September, when the Hokies extended their losing streak to non-ACC power conference teams (now at 12), Blacksburg seemed to be on fire.  At least, that was the fan reaction. 

Looking back through lenses of the midseason mark though, the losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers are not as devastating as they were at the time.  Sure, games like that have to be wins if the program is going to take the next step, but my point is that Hokie Nation overreacted based on expectations. 

Vanderbilt is not going to contest for the SEC, but they are pesky and have shown that they can play with anybody. After taking down the Hokies, they battled Missouri to overtime on the road, and this week they shocked the college football world by beating top-ranked Alabama.

The Commodores did to Bama what they did to Tech in the first half of the opener – they controlled the clock, ran the ball efficiently, and limited possessions for the opponent. Quarterback Diego Pavia is a dynamic player and the team is a challenge to defend.  So yes, losing to Vandy is still disappointing, but it certainly isn’t the ledge-jump inducing result that we made it out to be six weeks ago.

The same is true with Rutgers. While they are not in the upper echelon of the Big Ten, they will likely finish in the top half of the conference. Greg Schiano’s program has slowly built itself into one that runs hard, plays physical in the trenches, and gets after the ball on defense.  We know all too well how that formula can produce wins.  Again, it was a disappointing loss, but they are a solid team. 

The three Tech losses are by a total of 14 points.  The Hokies are a competitive bunch who have shown the ability to fight, even if it has not resulted in wins all the time.  But as a fan, I am encouraged by the upward trend.  If the Hokies can continue to improve and play four quarters of complementary football, then the end-of-December evaluation of the season can be a good one.

A few players have been gamers so far, making quite an impact on the season to date.  The workhorse of this offense has been Bhayshul Tuten. The senior running back is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season, and he is among the leaders in the conference – and the nation – in a few impressive statistics:

• 605 rushing yards (2nd in the ACC, 8th nationally)
• 10 touchdowns (Most in the ACC, Tied for 4th nationally)
• 4 games with 100+ yards rushing (tied for second nationally)

Since arriving on campus almost three years ago, head coach Brent Pry has said that he wants his team to be able to run the football.  Other than the opener at Vanderbilt, this year’s Hokies have done just that, and Tuten has been the key to that success.

If Virginia Tech is going to make a run at an eight-win season, Tuten has to stay healthy and continue to carry the ball twenty times a game.

Although the defense needs a little more improvement in stopping the run and preventing third-down conversions, the unit is starting to gel, especially up front.  Antwaun Powell-Ryland’s seven sacks are good for second in the conference and third in the nation.  Three more and he will be the first Hokie with ten sacks since Daryl Tapp in 2005. 

As a team, the Hokies lead the ACC and are tied for 2nd nationally with 21 sacks.  Their 42 tackles for loss are tied for 8th in the nation. They have also forced nine turnovers, which is tied for 26th in the NCAA FBS.

As the defense continues to evolve as a disruptive force, the team’s chances of winning games will also improve.

And let us not forget the special teams. Despite some gaffes in the early games, this unit has produced a few stars.  Kicker John Love is perfect on his 20 extra points so far, and his only missed field goal in ten attempts was a partially blocked kick.

Kyle Lowe has put 25 of his 37 kickoffs into the endzone for touchbacks, and punter Peter Moore has solidly averaged 44.1 yards per punt.

This team’s identity is taking shape.  They are best when they run the ball effectively, play aggressive defense, and excel in the kicking game.  Sound familiar?  It does to this old head, and when it works, it works well.  Here’s hoping the Hokies can come out of the bye week and continue to ride this momentum.

The remainder of the schedule looks like one would want it to look on paper…”winnable” games with a marquee matchup at home – and an opportunity for a signature win. 

Virginia Tech will play four of its remaining six games at home, including a Thursday night contest and a home clash with #10 Clemson.  The Lane Stadium crowd will definitely be a factor in those two games, and the home environment should help against Georgia Tech and Virginia.

The road games are at Duke, who is playing good defense, and Syracuse, where Tech never seems to win. However, neither of those teams are ranked, and the Hokies could very well be favored in both away matchups. 

The opportunity to win four or five (or six?) of the remaining games is there, and the Football Power Index agrees.  According to FPI, Virginia Tech’s remaining schedule ranks “third-easiest” in the ACC.

Take that for what it is worth, though.  We thought the first four games would be “easy,” yet Tech lost two of them.  Expecting wins is foolish.  Hokie Nation, need I remind us of the dangers of drinking the Kool-Aid?  If Vanderbilt taught us anything, it is to stay grounded and replace “expectation” with “hope.” 

So that is what I’m doing here – hoping for five more wins.  Hoping for an upset of Clemson.  Hoping for a return to national relevance.  It can only be done one game at a time, though, so let’s get healthy through the bye week and come out ready to rock Boston College on a Thursday night in the Terrordome!

Taking a look outside of Blacksburg, the league is really taking shape as a two-pony race with a few hopefuls hanging around like gnats on a summer evening.  Clemson seems to have returned to the ACC elite while Miami continues to escape disaster.  Controversial replay reviews aside, the Canes have playmakers and an explosive offense. These two teams are the favorites to meet in Charlotte.

However, there are a few others who still have a legitimate shot to get to the league championship game.  SMU has figured out their quarterback position and appear to have the tougher part of the schedule behind them.  Pitt is a surprise at 5-0, but they still have to play Syracuse, SMU, Clemson, and Louisville.  If SMU gets past Pitt on November 2nd, it will be interesting to see who earns the bid to the ACC title game. 

Meanwhile, what the heck is going on at the bottom of the league?  Florida State went from undefeated last year to 1-5 now, and they are lucky to avoid being winless by narrowly beating Cal a few weeks ago.  With Miami and Notre Dame still to play, it looks like the Seminoles will have a second straight disappointing post-season - only this one will not include a bowl game.

Down Tobacco Road, North Carolina is playing as soft as their powder blue uniforms, losing three straight.  That streak includes two L’s at home and a choke at Duke when they squandered a 20-point third-quarter lead.  Meanwhile, North Carolina State fell at home to Wake Forest, who had just one win at the time.  UNC, NC State, and Wake are a combined 1-5 in ACC play and 8-9 overall.

Thank goodness for Duke, who is the cream of the Carolina crop at 5-1 (1-1 in the ACC).

But don’t worry, there are still a ton of games to play, and this is the ACC.  Teams will beat each other up, and by the time we awake from our tryptophan-induced comas over Thanksgiving weekend, most teams will likely have two or more conference losses, and those who don’t will be squaring off in Charlotte.

And if the ACC has anything to say about it, which many already believe they do, those two teams will be Miami and Clemson.  Don’t hold your breath on any other matchup.

Week six was a crazy weekend in college football.  Crazy, but very exciting.  More than anything, the public is getting a good gauge on who was overhyped in the preseason, who was underhyped, and what predictions were spot on.

For Virginia Tech, the hype was high and it wasn’t the start that Hokie Nation envisioned, but like last year, it feels like the tide is turning.  Everything is still in front of the Hokies - an eight or nine-win season, a shot at the conference title, and the possibility of a decent bowl bid - it is all still on the table.

For that to happen, though, the Hokies have to continue what they have started these past two weeks: play sound, complementary football for all four quarters. 

And establish the run.  And be disruptive on defense.  And win the special teams battle.

I’m certainly not predicting an eight or nine-win finish.  Just because Tech went on a tear to end last season does not mean it is automatically going to happen this season.  But I do feel a lot better about that possibility than I did a few weeks ago.

And so, with a week to rest my heart from the havoc it has experienced in the first half of the season, I will be ready next week to get back at it and dive head-first into the regular craziness that is college football!

Go Hokies!