Predicting Every 2024 Virginia Tech Football Game

Year three of the Brent Pry era is officially underway, and the anticipation is the highest it has been in a long time.  The return of so much talent and experience, combined with a very manageable schedule, has Hokie Nation excited about the possibilities.

With the momentum of last season’s bowl victory and 6-3 record in the final nine games, the Hokies are primed to take the next step as a program.  But what is that next step?  A very conservative expectation is eight wins and a bowl victory.  

Back in April, I shared that expectation with the team as I ran by them in Lane Stadium during the annual Run in Remembrance. “Eight wins this year!  You got this!” I shouted repeatedly as I high-fived the young men.

“How ‘bout ten?” one young Hokie called back.

I like his attitude!

Why not ten wins?  Why shouldn’t the Hokies set their eyes on double digit victories? Or competition for the ACC title? Or even an NCAA playoff bid?

With all that is returning in the two-deep, ten wins is very possible.  With the schedule that Tech has, ten wins is very possible.

And while I would be thrilled with a ten-win season, I am stopping short of predicting it.  Although I do sip the Kool Aid occasionally, I am not a regular drinker.  Virginia Tech struggled last season with the better teams.  And history has shown that the Hokies find a way to drop at least one game each year that they “should” win. (I graduated in 1993 – I have seen my fair share of those kinds of losses.)

So eight wins is the floor and ten wins (or more) is the not-so-unrealistic hope.  I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the Hokies can stay healthy, play consistently, avoid the “traps,” win on the road, and maybe steal one that they “should not” win.

Let’s dive in and further analyze the 2024 Virginia Tech football schedule:

Nashvegas!  The road trip of all road trips!  Hokie Nation will be on Broadway en masse, and the same will be true for FirstBank Stadium.  Personally, I have had this one marked on my calendar for five years, and I can’t wait to be there to open this much anticipated football season against an SEC opponent in a great town! Vanderbilt will have a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia, which could cause concern for the Hokies given their historical struggles with dual threat quarterbacks.  But when those QBs become one dimensional, Tech eats them up (see Boston College last year).  Vandy lost its top four wide receivers to the transfer portal, which feeds into Tech’s strength at corner.  The Commodores’ offensive line isn’t that good either, so expect pressure on Pavia. The shifty QB – and their new offensive consultant Jerry Kill – could create a big play or two, but Vandy lacks talent and depth, will hinder their opportunities to score.  The same shortfalls exist on defense, especially in the secondary, which will allow the Hokies to move the ball on the ground and then take shots downfield.  Virginia Tech will pull away late, resulting in a lot of happy Hokies in the Honkytonks.  Virginia Tech 38 – Vanderbilt 17

It has been 25 years since that amazing 1999 Virginia Tech football team appeared in the national championship game, and many of those coaches and players will be on hand to be recognized during the home opener against Marshall.  The honored guests will be treated to a game that was common for them in 1999 – a woodshed beating.  Marshall returns very few starters, and this early in the year they will probably still have growing pains from such roster turnover.  Meanwhile, Tech will use its experience and athleticism and depth to pressure the Thundering Herd out of the gate.  With a little revenge on their minds from last year, the mojo from the 99 team on their sidelines, and an eight game home opener winning streak, the Hokies should cruise to victory in a blowout.  Virginia Tech 44 –Marshall 10

The mere mention of playing at Old Dominion brings a shudder to all of Hokie Nation.  And rightfully so.  The two teams have played five times in their history (all since 2017), and the Monarch won both games in Norfolk (the only two Power Conference victories in program history, mind you).  As much as Tech fans may want to say that the 2022 game was a fluke – I mean, seriously, have you ever seen a field-goal-attempt-bad-snap-six-points-the-other-way play in your life? – the bottom line is that a loss is a loss is a loss.  And there is nothing Hokie Nation can say when Old Dominion fans mock us.  I hate it.  I feel like Kevin Bacon in Animal House – “Thank you sir, may I have another.”  The only way to change that is to win.  Over and over and over.  Like we do against UVa.  Seriously, when Wahoo fans get on us about their 2019 victory, we can just throw out numbers like 18 of the last 19 and 22 of the last 24 and they move on to another sport.  That is what we need to do here.  Tech won handily last year, and the Hokies need to do that again this year. And next year.  And every year through 2031 (jeez, do we really play them seven more years after this?). Old Dominion has a way of hanging in games under coach Ricky Rahne, with five of their seven losses last year by six points or less.  However, Virginia Tech is better than they were a year ago – and Old Dominion is still a mid-level G5 team.  Sure they still have all-everything linebacker Jason Henderson, but he is coming off of a bad knee injury.  Even if he wasn’t, he is only one man, and he cannot cover Kyron Drones, Bhayshul Tuten, Ali Jennings, Jaylin Lane, Da’Quan Felton, and Nick Gallo on the same play.  This won’t be a beatdown because ODU tends to play tough, but Tech will finally exorcise those demons of S.B. Ballard Stadium. Virginia Tech 30 - Old Dominion 13

This could be one of those trap games, with the Hokies maybe looking ahead to Miami.  They better not.  Rutgers will be physical.  They will play tough defense.  They will try to gain the special teams advantage.  The Scarlet Knights hope that Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis will be an improvement over last year’s quarterback Gavin Wimsatt, who only threw for 1735 yards last year.  However, Kaliakmanis only passed for 1838 yards, so the Knights will again have to lean on 1,000-yard rusher Kyle Monangai, who led the Big Ten last year.  If we fans choose not to block the 2023 game from memory, we will recall that Monangai racked up 143 yards against the Hokies.  However, Tech was still breaking in new safeties in that game, and those players will be much improved this time around.  Tech will likely load the box to stop Monangai and force Kaliakmanis to beat cornerbacks Dorian Strong and Mansoor Delane on the outside, which I don’t think he will do. So as long as Tech can win the turnover battle, they should have enough offensive firepower to hold off a feisty squad from the State University of New Jersey.  Virginia Tech 24 – Rutgers 16

The U is back!  Where have we heard that before (insert eye roll emoji).  This edition of the Miami Hurricanes football team is getting a lot of hype.  And why not? They have a lot of talent on their roster.  They have playmakers on both sides of the ball.  They brought in productive Power Conference transfers.  Why shouldn’t they get the hype?  That’s an easy one to answer – because they ALWAYS get the hype, yet they haven’t produced since 2003!  In the past 20 seasons, the Miami Hurricanes have exactly one ACC title game appearance (which they lost) and one ten-win season.  That’s it.  They are the epitome of over-hype preseason noise.  So of course, there is a big part of me that says the Hokies will win this game for that reason alone.  Also, the Hokies are due in this series, having lost the last three, five of the last six, and seven of the last nine.   Miami has talent, but the Hokies can counter.  Quarterbacks Cam Ward vs. Kyron Drones, running backs Damien Martinez vs Bhayshul Tuten, the Miami receivers vs the Tech receivers…I think they cancel each other out.  This is a tough game to predict – my heart says win but my head says lossIn the end, though, I think this game comes down to the trenches, and that’s where the U has the advantage.  Either way, I’m glad the ACC brass got their heads out of their backsides and returned this rivalry to the schedule, and even better, I’m excited that both teams should be good and this game will be meaningful at the top of the conference standings. Miami 28 – Virginia Tech 23

If Stanford was good, I would be worried about this game. Virginia Tech will be coming off a big Friday night game against long-time rival Miami, making their second long flight in two weeks - I can see a letdown.  However, Stanford is at a point where they should, as Athlon said, “make a push for a bowl game,” which, to me, suggests a five-win season.  At best.  So I think Tech may start slow, but their talent advantage alone should secure the victory in the program’s first ever regular season game in the state of California. If not, then I think I would be in favor of letting the team stay in the Bay area an extra day and we put them up in Alcatraz for the night as punishment.  Virginia Tech 26 – Stanford 10

Who did Boston College piss off in the ACC offices? Once again they find themselves playing a night game in Lane Stadium, even worse, on a Thursday night.  Thank goodness, though, because the Thursday night environment will at least add a little appeal to this matchup.  Seriously, does any Virginia Tech fan like this “rivalry”?  The annual BC crossover series is finally coming to an end.  Amen!  Tech manhandled the Eagles last year in Chestnut Hill, and I expect more of the same at home on a Thursday night.  Sure, BC has all the ballyhoo of new head coach Bill O’Brien, but I’m not a believer. He’s a good coach, but he isn’t a miracle worker, and the northeast is just a tough sell for high level college football talent.  O’Brien essentially has an annual eight win ceiling, but that isn’t happening this year.  Virginia Tech 37 – Boston College 20

Don’t sleep on the Yellow Jackets!  This is a good Georgia Tech team with a lot of similarities to the Hokies.  They have a young coach who is establishing a culture and identity, and they return a lot of starters, especially talent and experience at the skill positions.  They will score a lot of points.  However, their defense was a problem last year, and that could be an issue again in 2024.  The Wramblin’ Wreck also has a brutal schedule – all of their FBS opponents made the post-season last year – but they will be feisty when then come to Lane Stadium.  This could be a high scoring game, but in the end, the difference on defense is what will allow the better Tech to prevail.  Virginia Tech 30 – Georgia Tech 27

This game will be played at Virginia Tech’s House of Horrors.  Syracuse holds an all-time 7-2 edge over Virginia Tech at the stadium formerly known as the Carrier Dome.  The last Tech win came in 2000, when Dwight Freeney made Michael Vick his tackling dummy, but somehow Vick ran for a 55-yard touchdown in the final minutes to ice an eight-point win.  (I was there. It was one of the most uncomfortable wins I ever experienced in person.)  Prior to that, the only other Hokie victory in that dismal city was in 1986.  The seven losses were gut-wrenching, too.  In 2016, an eventual ten-win Jerod Evans team laid an egg and lost by 14 to what would be a four-win Orange team.  In 2002, Bryan Randall threw for 504 yards and five touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough as the 8th-ranked Hokies lost 50-42 in overtime to a 1-6 Orange team.  (I was at that one too.  I was speechless as I walked out of the dome.)  In 1998, Donovan McNabb was vomiting on the sideline a few moments before throwing the walk-off game-winning TD pass to beat the 12th ranked Hokies by two points.  In 1996, Tech came into the Dome on a 13-game winning streak but lost 52-21 to an 0-2 Syracuse team for their only loss of the regular season.  Do you see the pattern?  ‘Cuse has a new coach (Fran Brown) who brought in some interesting transfers, especially Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, but honestly, it doesn’t matter who is on that field.  That dome just brings out the worst in Virginia Tech football.  Until that changes, I’m going to predict, unfortunately, more of the same.  (And it doesn’t help that the Hokies could be looking ahead to Clemson)  Syracuse 24 – Virginia Tech 23

If Virginia Tech wants to take the next step in its desired return to national prominence, it needs to start winning games like this one. Clemson is still a big dog in college football, and although they have dropped recently from competing for national championships, they are still a pre-season top-20 team, one with a roster full of four- and five-star talent.  If Cade Klubnick can elevate his game at quarterback, the Tigers can make a run at the playoff.  If not, well, they will still be a tough defensive team who will likely win nine or ten games.  Virginia Tech will have the home field advantage, and this should be a great matchup in a phenomenal environment, but like my Syracuse soothsaying, until I see the Hokies start to win games like these, I’m going to go with past precedent in my predictions.  Clemson 28 – Virginia Tech 24

I said don’t sleep on Georgia Tech, but you can go ahead and snooze on Duke.  They are going to take another step backwards this year.  The Blue Devils lost so much talent to the portal and the NFL.  Texas transfer Maalik Murphy will look to fill the shoes of now-Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard, but the Duke line will need to be re-tooled.  So will the defensive line.  New coach Manny Diaz is a very good defensive coordinator, but I question if he can be successful as the head whistle, especially given his tenure in Miami.  Even with a pillow-soft non-conference schedule, Duke may struggle to win four games this year.  Virginia Tech 31 – Duke 17

There is not much to say about this one.  Virginia Tech should win easily again, so let’s have some fun with numbers.  As mentioned above, the Hokies have won 18 of the last 19 and 22 of the last 24.  Tech leads the series, 61 to 38 (with five ties), but since 1953, the team from Blacksburg has a 48-18 edge.  And nine of those UVa wins were under George Welsh. Yikes, the Boo-Hoos have been bad in this relationship!  They will be happy with six wins this year, which I don’t think they will even sniff. At least Hokie fans will actually get to enjoy this one on their own turf for once.  This is the first time this rivalry game is to be played in front of fans at Lane Stadium since 2018, and Hokie Nation will be treated to yet another Commonwealth Cup celebration.  Break out the cigars, everyone!  Virginia Tech 38 – Virginia 16

We all know that it is foolish to say that a football team “should” win any game on their schedule.  If you are reading this, then you have been around football long enough to know that upsets happen.  Especially if you are a Hokie fan.

But on paper, Virginia Tech “should” win seven of their games.  On paper, the Hokies have the better roster in those contests.

That leaves five toss-up games, where the rosters are more even and the expectations are not so unanimous.  Rutgers, Georgia Tech, and Syracuse are three matchups that are very tough to predict.  And even though Miami and Clemson have preseason rankings that are better than the Hokies, no one would be shocked if Virginia Tech emerged victorious in either of those games.

So if the Hokies take care of business in the seven “should-win” games, then go 3-2 in these five “toss-up” games, that’s a ten-win season.  It's as simple as that.

I predicted nine wins because, well, it is tough to win ten.  Very few teams do that each year.  And Tech has not “won up” in a while (aka beating teams who are ranked higher than them). Add in the historical hiccup, and I think 9-3 is the outcome (which is still a VERY good outcome). 

But that does not include the bowl game, which would give the Hokies a chance to reach double digit wins and make a prophet out of that young player from the Run in Remembrance this past spring.

Last year I was spot-on in my predictions, only missing Rutgers and Pitt.   I was pretty darned close in many scores and on the money with the record and the bowl bid prediction. Let’s hope I am correct again – or off by one (insert wink emoji)!

See you all in Nashville!  Go Hokies!