The College Football Playoff – Whose Bubble Will Burst?

The College Football Playoff rankings were released last night, and boy, do we have a great debate heating up for the final spots!  After some crazy outcomes of rivalry weekend, the final at-large bids will be greatly debated, no matter who is selected by the committee.

Just like the bracket revealing of March Madness, there will be controversy.  There is always controversy at the cut.  But that is why teams are on the bubble in the first place – because they lost a game or two that would have otherwise locked up an invitation to the dance. 

This twelve-team playoff field will have several options for those last few seeds, with no clear-cut choices that stand out over the other bubble teams.  But the argument for leaving out the 13th team is far less significant than when it was an argument for leaving out #5 (and worse, #3 not too long ago).

So here we are, less than a week before the brackets are finalized.  Let’s see who is on the bubble – and whose bubble will b­­urst!

Let’s start with the obvious.  There are several teams who have already secured their seats at the table before even winning their conference championships. 

Top ranked Oregon (12-0) – They are the only remaining undefeated team, so they are playing for the one seed.  If they lose the Big Ten championship game, they will likely fall to the fifth seed and host a playoff game in the first round.

#3 Penn State (11-1) – The only blemish on their record is a one-score setback at the hands of #6 Ohio State.  Even if the Nittany Lions do not win their conference title game, they will host a round-one playoff game.

#2 Texas (11-1) and #5 Georgia (10-2) – The winner of this SEC championship and rematch earns a bye while the loser will host an at-large playoff game.

There are four teams who are virtual locks for the playoff despite not playing in a conference championship game this weekend.  The first is #4 Notre Dame (11-1), who has already secured a home playoff game, possibly as high as the fifth seed. 

#6 Ohio State and #7 Tennessee both sit at 9-2 and will probably face each other in round one.  Yes, they both have losses to unranked opponents, but they are two-loss teams from the two highest profile leagues.  They will both get in.  The Buckeyes are the higher ranked team, so this matchup will be in Columbus.   

The last team that has probably punched its ticket already is #9 Indiana.  At 11-1, they have the same record as Texas, Penn State, and Notre Dame above them.  However, they have a mediocre strength of schedule, which is ranked 65th according to ESPN’s power index.  Only SMU and Boise State have softer schedules among top ten teams – more on them later.

Some may argue that Indiana should not be in the hunt.  However, despite playing weaker opponents, I do not see a scenario where a one-loss team from the Big Ten is left out of the twelve-team playoff.  A major reason for the format expansion was to allow more “Power 2” teams to reach the bracket.  The Hoosiers will be in.

This puts eight teams in our playoff field.  Who are the other four?

The new twelve-team playoff format awards automatic bids to the five highest ranked conference champions. With two of those champions included above, this leaves us with three more automatic bids to award.

The ACC championship game features 8th ranked newcomer SMU (11-1) and longtime conference king and 17th ranked Clemson (9-3).  The winner is in.  The loser…maybe not.  More on that later.

In the Big 12, a pair of 10-2 teams square off for the title, #15 Arizona State and #16 Iowa State.  The winner will get an automatic bid and maybe a bye if Boise State slips up.  The loser is out.

Speaking of #10 Boise State (11-1), they face #20 UNLV (10-2), and the winner earns an automatic bid to the playoff.  If it is Boise, they will be ranked higher than the Big 12 winner, so they will earn the bye.  If UNLV pulls off the upset, they will likely reach the playoff as the 12th seed and Boise will be sent back to the Smurf Turf for the holidays.

With eleven of the twelve bids allotted, we are left with a great debate over the last seed.  Alabama (9-3), Miami (10-2), Ole Miss (9-3), and South Carolina (9-3) are ranked 11-14 (in that order).  If Clemson wins the ACC, then SMU will also fall into this group that is vying for the final bid. 

Let’s start with South Carolina, as they seem most likely to lose out on a playoff bid.  While the Gamecocks are among the nation’s hottest teams right now, they did lose earlier to BOTH Alabama and Ole Miss, and head-to-head losses still should count.  As great as they played through their back half buzzsaw of a schedule, I don’t see how South Carolina gets into the playoffs over the two teams that already beat them.

Miami is the next team of interest.  At 10-2, they should be in with Tennessee and Ohio State, right?  I mean, they are a ten-win power conference team with significant brand image and high-profile players, which is made-for-TV, right?

If you are a college football fan, though, you will find it difficult to believe that the playoff committee would bump an SEC team out of the playoff in favor of an ACC team.  Don’t believe me?  Just ask Florida State.

Miami’s luck will run out.  Actually, it already ran out Saturday in Syracuse, where all the Canes had to do was win and they were in.  Unfortunately for them (and the ACC), they lost their second close game in three weeks, which honestly feels like karma to a team that earlier had three close wins whose outcomes were directly affected by official reviews that went in their favor.  

Factor in the 55th-ranked schedule and the argument for Miami wanes.  Also, public opinion has been against the Canes since those three straight sketchy wins, but I feel that no one outside Coral Gables and ACC headquarters will be shedding any tears when they are omitted from the playoff.

So that leaves two teams, two brands if you will, who (along with Clemson) are looking to be the first team with three regular season losses to play for a national title – Alabama and Ole Miss.  They are two SEC schools with identical records but no head-to-head matchup.  Ole Miss beat Georgia while Bama lost to the Bulldogs, but Bama has more wins over ranked opponents (3) than the Rebels (1).  Also, Alabama’s schedule is ranked 17 compared to 31 for Ole Miss. 

The advantage – and the ranking – appear to favor of the Crimson Tide.  So does the national brand, which will undoubtedly be on the minds of the gamesmakers as they fill out the brackets in a made-for-TV playoff system.

Make no bones about it – with potentially five teams in the hunt for the last at-large playoff bid, this decision will reek of SEC politics.  The move to expand the playoffs to twelve teams was fueled by SEC/Big Ten interests.  The more conference teams that are in the playoffs, the more money that goes to the conference.  In the end, the rich will get richer.  There will be four SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, and four “other” teams in the first ever twelve-team playoff. 

Miami’s loss to Syracuse all but guaranteed the Canes’ elimination and thus a single ACC playoff bid.  But does the league realize how closely they flirted with being left out altogether?

Consider this:  if Clemson wins on Saturday, they will knock SMU out of the playoffs.  I know that SMU is currently ranked in the top ten, but with a strength of schedule of 75 and an unfortunate stigma of still being viewed as a G5 program, I just don’t see how they would bump Alabama out of the final slot (nor Ole Miss, South Carolina, or Miami, for what it’s worth).

In that scenario, Clemson is possibly the fifth-lowest conference champion, but does the AAC winner (Tulane vs Army) jump them?  If so, then the ACC will be left out of the playoffs altogether, a nightmare situation for a league who is already falling behind the other power conferences.

Fortunately for the ACC Brass, Tulane’s loss to Memphis last week and Army’s pummeling at the hands of Notre Dame are likely to keep them both below Clemson, should the Tigers win.

And if Clemson loses, they are out.  Period.

So, after realistically thinking only a few weeks ago that three bids were on the way, a single ACC bid is more than probable.  And the thought that the ACC was close to a snub is not such an outlandish idea, especially considering Tulane was ranked as high as 17 last week.

As the selection committee reveals its decisions this weekend, let’s see what interesting storylines unfold. 

If Georgia loses the SEC title game, pay attention to where they fall. Projections have the Bulldogs at seven.  They also have Texas at two.  Would the committee do that and then create potential for a third meeting between these two teams?  Or would they manipulate Georgia to a different seed?

Also, watch how far the championship game losers fall. There is a narrative floating in cyberspace that teams will not be penalized for conference title losses (apparently CFB committee chair Warde Manuel made that statement).  Ok, so what if SMU loses?  If they do, they probably fall out of the bracket as discussed above (and so would Boise State).  That is undoubtedly a penalty for losing. 

The same might hold true with Penn State.  Right now they are ahead of Notre Dame.  But if they lose to Oregon, top-rated and undefeated Oregon, they could possibly land at number 6, one spot behind Notre Dame.  That is a penalty for sure, especially if they are matched with Alabama instead of the Big 12 winner or UNLV.  

Speaking of Penn State, did you see what James Franklin did at the end of the Maryland game last week? Up 38 to 7 with a minute to go, his team intercepted a pass and returned it into the red zone. Franklin then called two running plays before taking a a shot at the end zone. The pass fell incomplete, and Franklin did it again on 4th and 12 with four seconds to go, this time scoring on the last play of the game. 

I like Penn State; my son went there, and I am still a season ticket holder. But I don’t agree with taking those shots at that point in the game.  Take the knee and put an end to a game that is already a blowout. Unfortunately, this is not the first time Franklin did this. He scored at the very end of the West Virginia game last year as well. That’s bad juju and I hope karma does not come back to bite him in the playoffs. 

While it is fun to project the playoff brackets like we are all football versions of Joe Lunardi, the reality is that nothing will be final until Sunday.  Last year, we saw an undefeated Florida State team win its conference championship then fall in the polls.  Alabama currently holds position to gain that final at-large seed, but don't be foolish enough to think that these ranking won't change - even if half of these teams are not playing this weekend.

The committee has a lot of data and a lot of quality options for those at-large bids.  It won’t be easy, and they will certainly draw criticism, but whatever the committee decides, just remember that this is a better playoff format than the last one.

Andy Williams sings that this is the most wonderful time of the year.  It most certainly is, but not only because of what Mr. Williams describes; these happen to be the best three weeks of the college football season.  Enjoy them!