To Flav or Not to Flav – Whose Hype are We Believing?

I was fortunate enough to graduate from college in 1993, a time when music was seeing so much change.  When I enrolled at Virginia Tech, hair bands, power ballads, and pop music were still dominating the Top 40 lists.  Then came MTV Unplugged, hip hop, alternative rock, a bunch of one-hit wonders, and of course, grunge.  All the while, rap music was gaining popularity among the masses.

During my freshmen year in the lovely Pritchard dorm, my neighbors across the hall (shout out to Travis and Jeff) often woke me up at 3 am with screams of “Yeah, boyeeee” blasting from their three-foot high speakers, as Public Enemy was one of their favorite artists.  The memories are vivid.  Flavor Flav bellowing, “Don’t…Don’t…Don’t believe the hype.”

Oddly enough, here I sit, thirty-plus years later, thinking about Travis and Jeff and Flavor Flav, as I anticipate the start of another college football season.

Every August, college football fans are bombarded with preseason rankings and predictions.  It’s the way of the media.  There are no games to cover, so let’s fill the void with predictions and previews (yes, guilty as charged).

As the trend has been lately, SEC and Big Ten teams dominate the polls.  A few ACC and Big 12 hopefuls are sprinkled throughout, and of course, Notre Dame is listed somewhere higher than they should be.

But this is all conjecture.  Are those SEC and Big Ten schools really that much better than the rest of the college football world?  Do the teams from the other P4 leagues stand a chance to get into the 12-team playoff with at-large bids? 

Time will tell.  But I choose to tell now.  These are the teams that come to my mind when I hear Flavor Flav sing his iconic lyric, “Don’t believe the hype.”

Big Blue is coming off three straight Big Ten titles and their first national championship since 1997 (but only their second in the past 75 years).  However, their personnel losses alone are cause for concern.  It is natural to take a step back after losing such a successful coach (Jim Harbaugh is now the Los Angeles Chargers head coach), but Michigan also lost most of their offense to the NFL (quarterback, running back, two wide receivers, and the offensive line).  Plus, they have a brutal schedule.  They play Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State, all of whom are preseason top 5 teams.  Yet Michigan is ranked 8th by USA Today and 7th by Athlon.  With those three opponents, a road trip to Washington, and a game against Rose Bowl rival Southern Cal, I am struggling to see 10 wins, which guarantees a top-ten ranking.  I think 8-9 is more likely, possibly less if all the off-field distractions have an adverse effect.  Bottom line, I think Michigan takes more than just a step back and might even fall out of the top 25.

The U is back.  Yeah, yeah, tell me something new.  Sure, the Canes have a lot of playmakers.  Sure, they brought in former PAC-12 starters Cam Ward at quarterback and Damien Martinez at running back.  They should definitely improve on the 7-wins of last season, but I’m not penciling them into the ACC championship game just yet.  Florida, Florida State, and Louisville are tough matchups, and traveling to Georgia Tech and Syracuse add to the schedule’s difficulty. Miami will have to be disciplined to endure this slate, but discipline and The U historically have not had a good relationship.  USA Today and Athlon have the ‘Canes at 19 and 20 respectively, which is a fair expectation, and Draftkings has their win total at 9.  But the ‘Canes keep coming up in ACC title game conversations.  I’m not willing to bet that they are a 10-win team this year, but if they stay disciplined, they have the talent and the linemen to make a run at double digit wins.  Until they actually do that, though, call me Doubting Thomas.

Duke transfer Riley Leonard is a good quarterback, but will he be Sam Hartman good?  Will he even need to be that good?  There is talent on the roster, and the defense should be stout.  The schedule is favorable, with Florida State, Louisville, Southern Cal, and Georgia Tech as the only real tests.  The media is high on the Irish – USA Today has them 7th in their preseason poll and Draftkings has their win total at ten.  Like Miami though, Notre Dame always seems to benefit from preseason hype.  However, unlike Miami, the Irish have actually won games, finishing with double-digit wins in seven of the last nine seasons.  With their talent and schedule, they should make another run at ten-wins and a potential playoff spot.  So why am I not believing the hype?  Because history has shown that even though Notre Dame can win a lot of games (on a schedule that includes five ACC schools and a few service academies), they are not competitive in meaningful post-season contests. They have lost their last TEN New Year’s Six bowl games, including an absolute drubbing by Alabama in the 2012 BCS title bout.  We have to go back THREE DECADES for their last big post-season win, a Cotton Bowl victory in 1993 by a Lou-Holtz coached team.  While the 2024 Irish could – arguably should – make the playoff, I don’t expect them to do much with that bid other than lose to an SEC school in an early round.

Yes, I am biased.  This is a homer pick for sure.  But I am a very realistic Hokie fan.  I do think Virginia Tech could reach the ACC title game, but I am not going so far to say that they will.  However, with so many returning players in the two-deep, a roster with quality at the skill positions, and key portal additions to plug holes, this team will improve on its six regular-season wins from last year and should finish higher than their preseason predictions (The Hokies are currently unranked in the USA Today and Athlon preseason polls, and the ACC media poll has them 6th in the conference).  With a relatively weak schedule, 9-10 wins is very attainable. For the first time in a while, the schedule lacks that game where most fans would pencil in a loss.  A trip to Miami and a home contest against Clemson will be tough challenges, but would you really be surprised if Tech took one of those games?  Rutgers and Georgia Tech are gritty teams, but the Hokies have them at home.  If Virginia Tech can win at Syracuse (something they rarely do) and split the four games mentioned above, that’s a ten-win season.  Is that really an outrageous prediction?  Vegas seems to think so, as their initial over-under win total started at 7.5 (but has since moved up to 8.5).  I still think the over hits.  Yes, my glasses have a bit of a maroon and orange tint, but don’t sleep on the Hokies. Barring injury or other catastrophic circumstances, they should finish better than their preseason predictions.

This is the best team not in the SEC.  On paper, they might be as good if not better than all of the teams in the SEC.  Ohio State is loaded.  Their roster is elite.  They poached portal players from big time programs in the off season.  They brought in Chip Kelly to be their offensive coordinator.  This team is going to score points in bunches (They are currently a 50.5 favorite in their opener against Akron).  The Buckeyes play at Oregon, which will be quite a test.  If they survive, they should steamroll their way through the rest of the Big Ten. They have Penn State’s number lately, Iowa can’t score, and Michigan’s personnel losses should assist in getting that monkey off their backs.  The rest of their schedule will be a breeze.  I would be surprised if Ohio State did not win the Big Ten and did not make the college football playoff final.  They are a favorite to win the natty. 

The revamped Big 12 should be an interesting conference. With the defection of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and the addition of four former Pac-12 schools, the conference title race is wide open.  However, Utah stands a pretty good chance to claim the throne in their first year in the Big 12.  Kyle Whittingham enters his 20th season as Utah’s head coach, and his notoriously stingy defense should again cause trouble for opponents.  So should their underrated home field advantage.  The schedule is favorable, with six of the bottom seven (projected) Big 12 teams on the slate.  Utah does not play Kansas State, so an early trip to Stillwater against Oklahoma State will be their toughest test.  The ace in the hole for the Utes is the return of quarterback Cam Rising, who missed all of 2023 because of the knee injury sustained in the Rose Bowl.  In the last two seasons that Rising was the Utah quarterback (2021 and 2022), he passed for 5500 yards and brought the Utes to consecutive Pac-12 championships.  Look for him to add a third conference title this year. 

This is perhaps the biggest question in college football this year:  Can Alabama continue their elite play after Nick Saban’s retirement?  Although the Crimson Tide lost a lot – almost 40 players – to the portal and the NFL draft, what remained on the roster and what came in through the portal is still deep in talent.  Quarterback Jalen Milroe returns, and Bama fans hope the new offense can help him have the success that Michael Penix Jr. had last season in Washington with this staff. New coach Kalen DeBoer has possibly the greatest shoes to fill and a fan base that expects national titles, but he does enter Tuscaloosa with a tremendous track record.  He is 104-12 overall as a head coach, and he is fresh off a Pac-12 title and a berth in the National Championship game.  However, as we all know too well, the toughest job in coaching is the one that follows a legend.  With that pressure and a brutal SEC schedule, it will be interesting to see if DeBoer can keep Alabama in the playoff hunt. 

The Yellow Jackets have a solid team.  They are tough in the trenches and embrace a physical style of play.  Head coach Brent Key is building a program, and he kept important pieces of the offense on the roster.  Quarterback Haynes King returns, as does 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes, several receivers and four linemen.  However, the defense will be a question mark, as will their brutal schedule.  All of their 2024 P4 opponents reached a bowl last year.  Georgia Tech will likely finish in the middle of the pack in the ACC, but they will be better a better football team than their record shows.  Be leery if your team plays the Wrambling Wreck.

The Mustangs are an interesting addition to the ACC. They return a lot of skilled players and are coming off a ten-win season.  Their initial conference schedule is favorable, only playing two of the preseason top nine ACC teams (Florida State and Louisville).  However, they lost to a very mediocre Boston College team in the Fenway Bowl last year, casting doubts on how legit their G5 record was.  The big challenge for SMU is how to be competitive in the grind of their first year in a P4 league.  The ACC doesn’t have a good perception nationwide, but it is still a P4 conference.  This team from Texas will quickly learn how tough it is to win week in and week out in a physical P4 league, especially one that will include long road trips.  If they can make those adjustments, they could be a dark horse for an ACC title game appearance in their inaugural season.

Rutgers?  Rutgers is on this list?  Yes!  They return a lot of players, including 1,000-yard rusher and Big Ten leader Kyle Monangai.  They will be good in the trenches.  They brought in Minnesota quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who should be an upgrade over Gavin Wimsatt, particularly in the passing game.  The difference maker, though, is their schedule.  For the first time in their Big Ten lives, they do not have to play Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State.  That trio accounted for three automatic L’s annually for the Scarlet Knights.  But not this year!  The Scarlet Knights also avoid Oregon.  Rutgers’ toughest games are at Virginia Tech, Nebraska, and Southern Cal, and home against Washington.  They could steal one of those, maybe two.  The rest of the games are against mediocre Big Ten teams, plus Howard and Akron. This is a golden opportunity for the program to take that next step.  I would not be surprised if they improved on their six regular season wins from last year. Heck, they could even win eight and – gasp – finish in the rankings!

As with any college football season, August is filled with hype and hope.  But to paraphrase Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry, it is all just noise, and it doesn’t mean squat.  Players still have to play, coaches have to coach, and teams have to win.  All else is just noise.

But as fans, we eat up the hype.  Why else does it exist?  It is simple economics.  Supply and demand.  And because our appetite for football this time of year cannot be properly satiated until the games begin, we need this content, thus all the hype. 

And that brings us back to Flavor Flav’s lyric. Whose hype are you believing?

College football is almost back.  Buckle up and enjoy the ride!