Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt: Preview and Prediction

 

Game Info:

August 31st, 2024

Virginia Tech Hokies (-13.5) @ Vanderbilt Commodores (+13.5); o/u48.5

11:00 am CT/12:00 pm ET

ESPN

FirstBank Stadium; Nashville, Tennessee

 

Head Coach: Clark Lea (fourth-season at the helm; previously the DC for Notre Dame )

2023 record: 2-10 (0-8 in SEC) 

Last time out for Vanderbilt: 48-24 loss to Tennessee 

On Offense

Offensive Coordinator: Tim Beck (first-season as OC, previously the OC for New Mexico State under HC Jerry Kill; also won two D2 national titles as the Head Coach of Pittsburg State in 1991 and 2011).

Who’s playing QB? 

On Vanderbilt’s newly-released week one depth chart, New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia is listed alongside Utah transfer Nate Johnson. Expect Pavia to be the starter, though. Pavia transferred to Vandy from NMSU alongside his former HC Jerry Kill and offensive coordinator Tim Beck. At 6’0” 200lbs, Pavia had an impressive 2023 campaign with the Aggies, throwing for nearly 3,000 yards, 26 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Notably, last year, Pavia marched into Jordan-Hare Stadium and upset the Auburn Tigers, throwing for three touchdowns. 

Pavia is an athlete. And it was surely clear last year as he totaled nearly 1,000 yards on the ground. Hokie MLB and Middle Tennessee State transfer Sam Brumfield has played against Pavia twice. To put it simply, Brumfield called Pavia “one hell of an athlete.” (per Andy Bitter/TechSideline). Pavia is one of the few bright spots on this Commodores’ squad. 

Given that it’s week one, I would not be *shocked* to see Utah transfer Nate Johnson get a few snaps, especially if Pavia is struggling. Johnson and Pavia battled in the spring and summer for the QB1 position, but it seems that Pavia ultimately came out on top. Johnson has played in bigger games and may even be a better talent, but probably just more raw at this point in his career. 

Through the Air

Senior captain WR Richie Hoskins will lead this WR group in 2024 for the Commodores. Hoskins was not particularly impressive in 2023, but his leadership and seniority have both helped him become a starting receiver in 2024. WR Junior Sherrill is back for his sophomore campaign. The 5’11” speedster can certainly do some damage in the slot. Sherrill was the fourth leading receiver as a freshman last year for Vandy. The fifth leading receiver from a year ago was Quincy Skinner Jr. Skinner Jr. adds some size to this WR room and can be more of a deep threat—or a 50/50 ball type of guy. Skinner Jr. joins Hoskins as a senior in this room. 

The biggest body Pavia has to throw to is 6’7” tight-end Cole Spence. Spence was injured last year, but played four games in 2022, maintaining his redshirt. 

The Commodores lost a lot of key pass catchers from a year ago. It will be interesting to see how these receivers line up against VT’s secondary, especially with the return of Mansoor Delane and Dorian Strong. It should be a favorable matchup for the Hokies, assuming safeties Jalen Stroman and Mose Phillips play sound football. I am not too worried about Vandy on the outside. 

On the Ground

Leading tailback rusher from a year ago, Sedrick Williams, is back for his sophomore campaign. At 5'9" and 200lbs, Williams is your classic ground and pound type of guy. Below Williams on the depth chart is fellow sophomore AJ Newberry, who had only 20 carries a year ago. Expect Williams and Newberry to share carries, with Williams getting the heavier load. 

On the offensive line, Vanderbilt added three graduate transfers, headlined by Liberty transfer OT Chase Mitchell. At C, the Commodores added 6’4” 320lbs Mississippi State transfer Steven Losoya. This unit is a bit of a mystery, not having played together yet, but they do bring in decent experience and size. With that being said, the Hokies added pieces of their own to the defensive line and returned guys like APR, Cole Nelson, Josh Fuga, and CJ McCray. Virginia Tech needs to contain Pavia in the pocket because once he gets loose, damage could be done. Other than that, the Hokies should not have too much trouble winning the battle at the line of scrimmage. 

On Defense

Defensive Coordinator: HC Clark Lea will be the acting defensive coordinator in 2024, after firing Nick Howell in 2023. 

Who’s the Anchor (pun intended)? 

The anchor on this Commodore defense is junior linebacker and captain Langston Patterson. Patterson, a Nashville native, is listed at 6’1” 230lbs. Patterson led the Commodores with 74 total tackles a year ago. His return was crucial if Vandy wants to find any success on the defensive side of the ball. The best player on this defense could be fellow captain safety CJ Taylor. Taylor, another Tennsessee native, was all over the place a year ago—in a good way. Taylor had two interceptions, two forced fumbles, three sacks, and 55 total tackles. 

Biggest Weakness? 

Everything else. The Commodores were a Power 5 worst 2-10 last season. To make matters worse, they rank 16th in least returning production (FBS). 

They have some decent size on the defensive line. Last year they added Purdue transfer and 2022 freshman All-American edge Khordae Sydnor. At 6’5” 260, Sydnor should be a pivotal part of this D-line and has the potential to be a problem for offensive tackles. Opposite to Sydnor is 6’4” edge senior Miles Capers. Capers and Sydnor could make some noise if Parker Clements and Xavier Chaplin don't come to play.  

At corner, Vanderbilt brought in a 6’3” freak athlete, Kolbey Taylor, from Wyoming. Taylor was named to the Athletic’s 2023 “Freak List.” Opposite of Taylor will be 5’11” senior Tyson Russell. So, at least for the Commodores, there is some seniority in the cornerback room. 

Prediction

Virginia Tech is better in every aspect. Minimizing turnovers, taking advantage of mismatches, and establishing a ground game are all things the Hokies must do if they want to come out of Nashville happy.  

With that being said, the Hokies will march into Nashville and take care of business against a team that they should do just that to.  

Folks, CFB is finally here – let’s have a year. 

Vanderbilt Commodores 16  - Virginia Tech Hokies 35